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Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey  (Read 38961 times)
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #100 on: July 02, 2011, 08:41:52 pm »

Is there election data for NJ on Daves Redistricting now or are these all add-ins?

There's election data on the app. Some pieces are missing, though.
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« Reply #101 on: July 02, 2011, 08:48:16 pm »

NJ-6: Asbury Park, Long Branch, New Brunswick, Plainfield, Elizabeth, Bayonne. Pallone is the incumbent. 64.4% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Only 47.3% VAP White.
NJ-7: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit, etc. Lance is the incumbent. 50.8% McCain (up from 48%), 54.3% Republican average.

I would reconfigure these 2. You're cutting through a lot of Republicans to get Ashbury Park and Long Branch, and those areas are reddening. Ashbury Park and Neptune are small enough to easily drown in the rest of Monmouth County. It would also make it much easier for a Monmouth County Republican to succeed Smith someday; we don't have many Middlesex County Republicans.

It would be much better to keep CD-6 mostly in Middlesex/Union County and pick up more minority growing areas that you left in CD-7 and CD-4.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #102 on: July 02, 2011, 10:32:58 pm »

NJ-6: Asbury Park, Long Branch, New Brunswick, Plainfield, Elizabeth, Bayonne. Pallone is the incumbent. 64.4% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Only 47.3% VAP White.
NJ-7: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit, etc. Lance is the incumbent. 50.8% McCain (up from 48%), 54.3% Republican average.

I would reconfigure these 2. You're cutting through a lot of Republicans to get Ashbury Park and Long Branch, and those areas are reddening. Ashbury Park and Neptune are small enough to easily drown in the rest of Monmouth County. It would also make it much easier for a Monmouth County Republican to succeed Smith someday; we don't have many Middlesex County Republicans.

It would be much better to keep CD-6 mostly in Middlesex/Union County and pick up more minority growing areas that you left in CD-7 and CD-4.

That's a good point. It would make sense to trade the Monmouth County portion of NJ-6 for places like the Brunswicks. Still, that would pair Smith with Pallone in a somewhat competitive district, which could be risky. I'll have a closer look at it on Monday when I get home to the computer the save file is on.

I might also try for a configuration that pairs Holt and Pallone instead of Holt and Andrews. That configuration would likely also pair Pascrell and Rothman and keep Perth Amboy in Sires's district so that the Holt/Pallone district isn't forced into Elizabeth and Bayonne.
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« Reply #103 on: July 03, 2011, 06:36:42 am »



Jerseyhance



I'm not perfectly happy with it to be honest. Might try running the Hispanic seat to Paterson instead of Perth Amboy in the next attempt. Nine split municipalities, but the only one not concerning the minority seats is two East Brunswick precincts just southwest of Millville.
Also, of course, this is what happens when you have no idea who lives where and only look it up after.

1 (Camden) 68% White, 14% Black, 11% Hispanic, 63.4% Obama. Andrews
2 (South) 65% White, 15% Hispanic, 15% Black, 55.7% Obama. LoBiondo
Safe for him, probably gone once he retires. Same ol' same ol'.
3 (Trenton - Burlington) 63% White, 19% Black, 10% Hispanic, 62.1% Obama. Runyan, Smith
Neither of which could hold this.
4 (Ocean) 82% White, 55.8% McCain. open
Lol, there's no Republican incumbent from the Shore?
5 (Monmouth - South Middlesex) 73% White, 10% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 50.4% Obama. Pallone
I suppose he loses.
6 (Somerset - Hunterdon) 64% White, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 53.4% Obama. Lance, Holt
Looks like the right kind of seat for Lance... does Holt just move a few miles south to the third or what?
7 (Morris - Northwest) 79% White, 56.5% McCain. Garrett, Frelinghuysen
Nice primary fight.
8 (North Middlesex - West Essex) 60% White, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 10% Black, 57.8% Obama. open
This is in a lot of split towns with the 9th because the edge of Black settlement in Essex County just doesn't conform to town lines at all while still being fairly compact and reasonable. Moving the western edges of South Orange etc to the 9th pushes its Black share down and makes the 8th even longer and uglier.
9 (Newark) 51% Black, 20% Hispanic, 19% White, 87.0% Obama. Payne
Nothing to see here.
10 (Hudson) 54% Hispanic, 28% White, 72.4% Obama. Sires
Bayonne and Hoboken are an issue, aren't they? I'd much rather cut anything south of Elizabeth out.
11 (Bergen) 59% White, 17% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 56.0% Obama. open
Rothman's hometown was a very late, "just to get the numbers right and avoid an ugly town split" casualty. I forget what his current district looks like, could he run here anyways? It's a mostly quite natural but not a particularly safe seat.
12 (Passaic) 53% White, 30% Hispanic. 57.5% Obama. Pascrell, Rothman
See above.

Probably going to be 7-5, though could conceivably turn out 6-6 or even 10-2.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #104 on: July 05, 2011, 06:24:29 pm »

NJ-6: Asbury Park, Long Branch, New Brunswick, Plainfield, Elizabeth, Bayonne. Pallone is the incumbent. 64.4% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Only 47.3% VAP White.
NJ-7: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit, etc. Lance is the incumbent. 50.8% McCain (up from 48%), 54.3% Republican average.

I would reconfigure these 2. You're cutting through a lot of Republicans to get Ashbury Park and Long Branch, and those areas are reddening. Ashbury Park and Neptune are small enough to easily drown in the rest of Monmouth County. It would also make it much easier for a Monmouth County Republican to succeed Smith someday; we don't have many Middlesex County Republicans.

It would be much better to keep CD-6 mostly in Middlesex/Union County and pick up more minority growing areas that you left in CD-7 and CD-4.

That's a good point. It would make sense to trade the Monmouth County portion of NJ-6 for places like the Brunswicks. Still, that would pair Smith with Pallone in a somewhat competitive district, which could be risky. I'll have a closer look at it on Monday when I get home to the computer the save file is on.

I might also try for a configuration that pairs Holt and Pallone instead of Holt and Andrews. That configuration would likely also pair Pascrell and Rothman and keep Perth Amboy in Sires's district so that the Holt/Pallone district isn't forced into Elizabeth and Bayonne.

Okay, I had some time to look at this, and here's the result:



This improves the 4th to 50.8% Obama (from 52.0%) and 50.6% Republican average (from 50.1% Democratic average), but I'm still concerned about pairing Pallone and Smith. While I think Smith would certainly be favored to win, the district is more competitive than his current district, it incorporates a lot of new territory, and if 2012 turns out to be a Democratic year, it could be trouble. Is it worth pairing Smith with a Democratic incumbent for a swing of a point and a half?
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« Reply #105 on: July 05, 2011, 06:38:30 pm »

Okay, I had some time to look at this, and here's the result:



This improves the 4th to 50.8% Obama (from 52.0%) and 50.6% Republican average (from 50.1% Democratic average), but I'm still concerned about pairing Pallone and Smith. While I think Smith would certainly be favored to win, the district is more competitive than his current district, it incorporates a lot of new territory, and if 2012 turns out to be a Democratic year, it could be trouble. Is it worth pairing Smith with a Democratic incumbent for a swing of a point and a half?

Yep. Nobody should be afraid of Pallone in any monmouth based seat....Pallone did not even win the Monmouth section in 2010 and those were his base. The Holt section of Monmouth voted very Republican also.

You got many of the fastest reddening townships in New Jersey. Comparing Corzine 2005 to 2009 you have Old Bridge (13% swing), Hazlet (18%), Manalapan (16%) Marlboro (15%), chock full of good voters.

Also, I assume you drew this with the partisan figures. Why is West Windsor/Princeton Junction in the red district while Keyport, Sayerville, etc is in the green district? West Windsor and Plainsboro share a school district and you have a very valid reason to stick the green district into Mercer County.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #106 on: July 05, 2011, 06:56:03 pm »

Okay, I had some time to look at this, and here's the result:



This improves the 4th to 50.8% Obama (from 52.0%) and 50.6% Republican average (from 50.1% Democratic average), but I'm still concerned about pairing Pallone and Smith. While I think Smith would certainly be favored to win, the district is more competitive than his current district, it incorporates a lot of new territory, and if 2012 turns out to be a Democratic year, it could be trouble. Is it worth pairing Smith with a Democratic incumbent for a swing of a point and a half?

Yep. Nobody should be afraid of Pallone in any monmouth based seat....Pallone did not even win the Monmouth section in 2010 and those were his base. The Holt section of Monmouth voted very Republican also.

You got many of the fastest reddening townships in New Jersey. Comparing Corzine 2005 to 2009 you have Old Bridge (13% swing), Hazlet (18%), Manalapan (16%) Marlboro (15%), chock full of good voters.

Also, I assume you drew this with the partisan figures. Why is West Windsor/Princeton Junction in the red district while Keyport, Sayerville, etc is in the green district? West Windsor and Plainsboro share a school district and you have a very valid reason to stick the green district into Mercer County.

Because dummy me saw a county line and decided not to cross it. Back to the drawing board...
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #107 on: July 05, 2011, 11:13:33 pm »



Okay, this should be it. The 4th is now a McCain district, albeit barely (50.1%), with a Republican average of 51.0%. The 6th becomes 67.5% Obama, 65.1% Democratic average.
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« Reply #108 on: July 06, 2011, 02:23:03 am »

I was kind of pissed to find out that The Holy Land, New Brunswick is split between two districts (the 6th and 12th) even if the reason is to make both seats more Dem. The place still shouldn't be dishonored like that, just pick one district to be worthy of its holiness. Hopefully that'll happen while still keeping both seats safe Dem (not really that hard actually.)

Am I reading the map wrong or is Trenton actually in NJ-04 instead of NJ-12? If it is...why?
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« Reply #109 on: July 06, 2011, 02:33:49 am »

I was kind of pissed to find out that The Holy Land, New Brunswick is split between two districts (the 6th and 12th) even if the reason is to make both seats more Dem. The place still shouldn't be dishonored like that, just pick one district to be worthy of its holiness. Hopefully that'll happen while still keeping both seats safe Dem (not really that hard actually.)

Am I reading the map wrong or is Trenton actually in NJ-04 instead of NJ-12? If it is...why?

Are you referring to my Republican gerrymander? If so, then you may rest assured that the city of New Brunswick is wholly in the 6th. The city does not extend into Somerset County. Trenton is also wholly in the 12th, to do otherwise would be stupid to say the least.
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« Reply #110 on: July 06, 2011, 08:05:58 am »

There's no need for the NE arm of the 12th and the SW arm of the 6th now - swap them between the two districts and you'll have a much nicer-looking map.  
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« Reply #111 on: July 06, 2011, 08:18:13 am »

I do need to put a marker down that comparing Corzine's repudiation in 2009 with past presidential results is very hard to justify for federal races, even those where Corzine ran, and even comparing it to the 2005 race, while good to show what happened in 2009, doesn't prove a town is "reddening" in the long term. Not unless you think there's not going to be any snapback against the Tea Party heights of the 2009-2010 election.

This all reminds me of how Bush increased his vote share from 2000 to 2004 by a few points, which proved that many groups and states were "trending" Republican.
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« Reply #112 on: July 06, 2011, 08:48:01 am »

There's no need for the NE arm of the 12th and the SW arm of the 6th now - swap them between the two districts and you'll have a much nicer-looking map.  

Yes, the Middlesex-Somerset line is irrelevant there, particularly between New Brunswick and Franklin Twp.
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« Reply #113 on: July 06, 2011, 08:58:05 am »

I do need to put a marker down that comparing Corzine's repudiation in 2009 with past presidential results is very hard to justify for federal races, even those where Corzine ran, and even comparing it to the 2005 race, while good to show what happened in 2009, doesn't prove a town is "reddening" in the long term. Not unless you think there's not going to be any snapback against the Tea Party heights of the 2009-2010 election.

This all reminds me of how Bush increased his vote share from 2000 to 2004 by a few points, which proved that many groups and states were "trending" Republican.

If you want another example, Marlboro in particular (I have family there) is a Kerry/McCain jurisdiction. There are not many of those in the northeast. Many of the other towns in that belt either maintained or slightly increased their Republican margins between 2004 and 2008.

There is really ample data for the entire decade showing the reddening of Monmouth and Ocean County as a whole, with limited exceptions on a municipal basis.
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« Reply #114 on: July 06, 2011, 09:01:14 am »

I was kind of pissed to find out that The Holy Land, New Brunswick is split between two districts (the 6th and 12th) even if the reason is to make both seats more Dem. The place still shouldn't be dishonored like that, just pick one district to be worthy of its holiness. Hopefully that'll happen while still keeping both seats safe Dem (not really that hard actually.)

Am I reading the map wrong or is Trenton actually in NJ-04 instead of NJ-12? If it is...why?

What is this deal about the holy land? It's a prototypical college town with lots of low income Hispanics that votes very Democrat, but its not really an oasis for the Democrats as the surrounding areas are also Democratic. It's not Bloomington, Indiana.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #115 on: July 06, 2011, 09:35:46 am »


If you want another example, Marlboro in particular (I have family there) is a Kerry/McCain jurisdiction. There are not many of those in the northeast. Many of the other towns in that belt either maintained or slightly increased their Republican margins between 2004 and 2008.

There is really ample data for the entire decade showing the reddening of Monmouth and Ocean County as a whole, with limited exceptions on a municipal basis.

Marlboro has a large population of older Jewish New Yorkers. The trend there mirrors what you see in NY-9 and FL-22... a massive Dem vote in 2000 because of Lieberman, with a swing toward Bush in 2004 caused by lack of Lieberman/anger over 9/11, followed by stasis or even a small swing away from Obama because many older Jewish Dems didn't identify with him. My question is, we can identify those factors, so what do they say about future presidential elections, or congressional elections of any kind? Something, certainly, for President, but not much for congress.

Let's also recall that Corzine spent bazillions of dollars in 2000 to drive up the vote totals, which didn't lead to a big winning margin for him, but helped Gore seriously overperform for a Dem in NJ, creating an artificially high benchmark. Also, George W. Bush was a uniquely bad candidate for NJ in 2000... pollution, a strong evangelical Christian religious identity, disdain for educated elites, and opposition to the northeast are not a winning combo for NJ voters.

You're positing a trend moving forward. I'm putting forth an explanation for results on a national level, and also noting a swing at the state level between 2005 and 2009. Where we differ is whether you can draw a straight line from 2005 to 2009 through 2013 showing "reddening" caused by... what factor? I say we need more data to show how the Tea Party high-water mark in 2009 (NJ) and 2010 (federal) looks now that we have divided government. Maybe it's going to be surpassed by even bigger Republican wins. However, I don't think so.
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« Reply #116 on: July 06, 2011, 09:39:32 am »

Also, I make no claims about Ocean County. I've never really looked at it and don't know it, and the growth seems to be senior citizens, which is going to make it more conservative.
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« Reply #117 on: July 06, 2011, 10:13:03 am »

It would seem to me that if fiscal issues are at the fore in 2012, that would tend to maximize the Pubbies' potential in a state like New Jersey. 
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« Reply #118 on: July 06, 2011, 10:57:54 am »

I was kind of pissed to find out that The Holy Land, New Brunswick is split between two districts (the 6th and 12th) even if the reason is to make both seats more Dem. The place still shouldn't be dishonored like that, just pick one district to be worthy of its holiness. Hopefully that'll happen while still keeping both seats safe Dem (not really that hard actually.)

Am I reading the map wrong or is Trenton actually in NJ-04 instead of NJ-12? If it is...why?

Are you referring to my Republican gerrymander? If so, then you may rest assured that the city of New Brunswick is wholly in the 6th. The city does not extend into Somerset County. Trenton is also wholly in the 12th, to do otherwise would be stupid to say the least.

No, I mean the current map.

I was kind of pissed to find out that The Holy Land, New Brunswick is split between two districts (the 6th and 12th) even if the reason is to make both seats more Dem. The place still shouldn't be dishonored like that, just pick one district to be worthy of its holiness. Hopefully that'll happen while still keeping both seats safe Dem (not really that hard actually.)

Am I reading the map wrong or is Trenton actually in NJ-04 instead of NJ-12? If it is...why?

What is this deal about the holy land? It's a prototypical college town with lots of low income Hispanics that votes very Democrat, but its not really an oasis for the Democrats as the surrounding areas are also Democratic. It's not Bloomington, Indiana.

It's not about politics or voting patterns.
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« Reply #119 on: July 06, 2011, 10:59:50 am »


If you want another example, Marlboro in particular (I have family there) is a Kerry/McCain jurisdiction. There are not many of those in the northeast. Many of the other towns in that belt either maintained or slightly increased their Republican margins between 2004 and 2008.

There is really ample data for the entire decade showing the reddening of Monmouth and Ocean County as a whole, with limited exceptions on a municipal basis.

Marlboro has a large population of older Jewish New Yorkers. The trend there mirrors what you see in NY-9 and FL-22... a massive Dem vote in 2000 because of Lieberman, with a swing toward Bush in 2004 caused by lack of Lieberman/anger over 9/11, followed by stasis or even a small swing away from Obama because many older Jewish Dems didn't identify with him. My question is, we can identify those factors, so what do they say about future presidential elections, or congressional elections of any kind? Something, certainly, for President, but not much for congress.

Let's also recall that Corzine spent bazillions of dollars in 2000 to drive up the vote totals, which didn't lead to a big winning margin for him, but helped Gore seriously overperform for a Dem in NJ, creating an artificially high benchmark. Also, George W. Bush was a uniquely bad candidate for NJ in 2000... pollution, a strong evangelical Christian religious identity, disdain for educated elites, and opposition to the northeast are not a winning combo for NJ voters.

You're positing a trend moving forward. I'm putting forth an explanation for results on a national level, and also noting a swing at the state level between 2005 and 2009. Where we differ is whether you can draw a straight line from 2005 to 2009 through 2013 showing "reddening" caused by... what factor? I say we need more data to show how the Tea Party high-water mark in 2009 (NJ) and 2010 (federal) looks now that we have divided government. Maybe it's going to be surpassed by even bigger Republican wins. However, I don't think so.

For the record, I wouldn't call it a straight line trend past 2009. Generally the Democrats will likely reclaim the lost Daggett voters in most races who could not stomach voting for Corzine. Corzine also had some nonsensical toll plan and the GSP runs straight down the shore.

Here are the congressional results for Monmouth County in district 6, in Dem percentages:

2002: 66%
2004: 66%
2006: 67%
2008: 64%

And district 12:

2002: 53%
2004: 48%
2006: 56%
2008: 51%

The bottom of course fell out in 2009 and 2010 in both districts. Not too much slippage, but not too much gains, either even as the Democrats picked up on the national vote. But Pallone was never in a million years supposed to be getting 48% in his base portion of that district. It is true that these people have voted more Democratic in our noncompetitive congressional races, but my expectation is that when many of them are moved to Chris Smith's district, that they will vote for him as well.

Primarily, these are wealthy low tax whites who have and will obviously be hit by the Democrats tax policy. Housing prices have also priced lower income and younger people out of the district, and there are large pockets around there where housing has somewhat maintained.

It's not just a 2005-2009 thing. The best Dem performance in NJ in recent times was McGreevey in 2001. He actually won both Monmouth and Ocean County (Gore almost did the same). Corzine 4 years later improved Dem performance in Bergen/Essex/Hudson (+8% in Hudson) and held steep declines in Middlesex/Monmouth/Ocean County (-5 to -8%). The exact same thing happened in 2001-2005 as 2005-2009. The Northeast held and the suburbs plummeted, with those 3 counties leading the way. The state as a whole has a reddening PVI for the same reason in generally the same areas.
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« Reply #120 on: July 06, 2011, 11:00:51 am »

No, I mean the current map.

Chris Smith was from suburban Trenton and used to represent the entire city. In the 1990s, NJ-12 was considered a Republican district, so it would have been odd to reach down and grab Trenton. Then Holt won in '98 and hung on in '00 so the incumbent protection gerrymander in 2002 split the city in two, giving some of the more Democratic parts to Holt.
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« Reply #121 on: July 06, 2011, 11:03:56 am »

But the bottom fell out of formerly safe Democratic areas all over the country in 2010, and not just the blue dog areas. Look at MN-8, for example--Chip Cravaack's stunning upset was a sign of the overall election dynamics, but I wouldn't say that it is predictive. Similarly, the big Dem drops in MI-12, the Scott Brown election, northern Wisconsin, eastern Pennsylvania...

What seems to me is that if certain issues are at the forefront and there's a big anti-incumbent wave, there are parts of NJ that will swing one way or another. In 2009 and 2010, it was anti-Corzine and anti-Obama. In 2000, it was against the national Republicans and the social/industrial agenda; in 2001, it was a reaction against 8 years of Christie Whitman.

This all looks like Bucks County. I don't see trends, I see a swingy voting bloc that can be summoned to vote heavily against a candidate or party and can't be relied on for either party. Unfortunately, in NJ, the Republicans need this group solidly in their corner to be competitive. This happens sometimes but not often enough, and almost never in federal races.
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« Reply #122 on: July 06, 2011, 11:27:47 am »

Trenton is split because Chris Smith wanted to keep his current voters even knowing that its hostile territory. There are no Republican parts of Trenton.

Generally, IMO, there are big differences between areas like MN-8, which are full of union Dems and vote for all Democrats besides that clown Oberstar, and places like MI-12, which are the havens for blacks fleeing Detroit, and places like Monmouth County which are of course, anti-tax fiscons and generally vote for most competitive Republicans nowadays. In fact, in 1990, Holmdel was the launching point for the Florio tax revolt. Specific candidates might have some impact, but generally the fundamentals here favor the Republicans and IMO will continue to do so as long as what Torie says holds true.

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« Reply #123 on: July 06, 2011, 11:40:06 am »

If we're making an argument from data, then the data from Levin's district and Oberstar's district can make the case for "reddening" in those areas consistent with what happened in the Monmouth portion of NJ-6 between '06/'08 and '10. That's all I'm saying.
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« Reply #124 on: July 06, 2011, 11:43:53 am »

I also don't think they're "anti-tax fiscons" in the sense of Republicans in most parts of the country, or even the NJ-5 sense. They're people who become anti-tax when they're paying $14,000 a year in property taxes on a house worth $400,000 that they bought for $40,000 in 1975 or $110,000 in 1984. It's worse when their kids are no longer benefiting from the good schools they used to be happy to pay for. That's going to push anyone to revolt, and has--but is well within the bounds of national Democratic policy.

Democrats nearly took control of the Texas State House on the backs of swing voters like this, pushed in the other direction. But one election favoring Republicans (2010) and those suburban Dems were wiped out.
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