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Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey  (Read 39268 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #125 on: July 06, 2011, 12:48:13 pm »

I also don't think they're "anti-tax fiscons" in the sense of Republicans in most parts of the country, or even the NJ-5 sense. They're people who become anti-tax when they're paying $14,000 a year in property taxes on a house worth $400,000 that they bought for $40,000 in 1975 or $110,000 in 1984. It's worse when their kids are no longer benefiting from the good schools they used to be happy to pay for. That's going to push anyone to revolt, and has--but is well within the bounds of national Democratic policy.

Democrats nearly took control of the Texas State House on the backs of swing voters like this, pushed in the other direction. But one election favoring Republicans (2010) and those suburban Dems were wiped out.

Well, they aren't in the sense that they aren't historically consistently straight ticket GOP voters like the people in NJ-05 are ; which is partially the fault of the Whitman era GOP. But anti-tax reform guys like Kyrillios have held the legislative districts here relatively easy for a long time now.

They were always anti-tax, though. And not just with Florio in 1990; there were a lot of rejections of school budgets in Monmouth in 1991-1995 compared to the statewide norm; and this was long before the $14k property tax days.

The 2009 revolt won't of course translate upballot to the Presidency. And it won't go downballot anywhere as we hold all the Sussex to Somerset, Monmouth, and Ocean county seats. It might help Christie get 50% of the vote though.


Good point about MI-12 though. I don't think its fair over MN-08 as Dems like Dayton won that easily, but Snyder obviously cleaned up in MI-12.
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« Reply #126 on: July 07, 2011, 12:07:01 pm »

A little while ago, I was talking about the least likely of the two redistricting scenarios for 2012: a NJ-05 that combines Garrett and Rothman. Here's what I drew up.

The new NJ-05 dips further south into Bergen, taking heavily Democratic towns like Fort Lee. It gives up much of its GOP-friendly western territory to Leonard Lance (who now has a very safe Warren-Hunterdon-Somerset-Union district). The new NJ-08 takes in some of Bergen now to balance out the numbers, but it is still undisputably a district "owned" by Pascrell.

Ultimately, we get a new Bergen-based NJ-05 district that went 53.8% - 46.2% for an overall D+0 district.

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« Reply #127 on: July 07, 2011, 01:46:20 pm »

The reason I keep posting on these NJ threads, here and elsewhere, was because the anti-Florio election (1991?) was one of the formative events in my early awareness of politics, followed later by the 1996/1998 backlash against Republicans that was strongest in the northeast. I see things in terms of those two events, which gives me a view of politics in NJ as more cyclical than not, with the potential for tax revolt always present, but also with a backdrop of a general trend toward diversification which favors Democrats when cultural issues are at play.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #128 on: July 07, 2011, 01:53:06 pm »

What seems to me is that if certain issues are at the forefront and there's a big anti-incumbent wave, there are parts of NJ that will swing one way or another. In 2009 and 2010, it was anti-Corzine and anti-Obama. In 2000, it was against the national Republicans and the social/industrial agenda; in 2001, it was a reaction against 8 years of Christie Whitman.

Right before she resigned, Christie Whitman was quite popular, even among Democrats.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=499

New Jersey voters approve 56 - 35 percent of the job Christine Whitman did as governor. Rating Whitman's handling of specific issues, voters say:

So was the  Difranciscom and President Bush, pre 9/11.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=510

Gov. Donald DiFrancesco's approval is over 50 percent for the first time and now stands at 54 - 17 percent, with 29 percent undecided.


Better said that 2001 was a rebalancing to the fundamental balance of the state as it existed at the time. That's why the 2001 governor's race and the 2000 Presidential race show similar performance in every county across the board, except 2: Ocean and Hudson, which were even so very close. That shows stability, not random quirks such as some dude being from Texas.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2011, 02:27:44 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
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« Reply #129 on: July 07, 2011, 02:47:25 pm »

The 2001 Governor's race was something of a fluke. DiFrancesco likely could have held the Governorship against McGreevey or at least kept it close, but he chose to resign after some scandals broke. Republicans had a terrific candidate to replace him in Bob Franks (something of a GOP hero for almost taking down Corzine), but getting him on the ballot required the GOP fudge election laws and postpone a major statewide election.

The backlash for this was large, and only compounded by the fact that Bob Franks could not successfully articulate a reason for being in the race. Despite having near universal organizational support, Franks lost the primary in a landslide to conservative upstart Bret Schundler.

Schundler was too conservative to win in New Jersey -- or, at least, that was the message successfully built by the Democratic opposition. Schundler failed to win over the GOP organization that he led a revolt against, and ultimately, he was left fending for himself as Republican Party resources went into defending GOP legislative majorities above all else. To that end, they did a good job -- Republican candidates held seats in some districts that went 2:1 for Gore a year prior. Republicans drew to a 20-20 draw in the State Senate, one of the better results they could have hoped for.

2001 had little to do with Whitman. True, Schundler's early base was those GOP voters who never approved of Whitman in the first place, but he required so much more to actually score  the Pyhrric victory.
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« Reply #130 on: July 07, 2011, 03:40:59 pm »

The 2001 Governor's race was something of a fluke. DiFrancesco likely could have held the Governorship against McGreevey or at least kept it close, but he chose to resign after some scandals broke. Republicans had a terrific candidate to replace him in Bob Franks (something of a GOP hero for almost taking down Corzine), but getting him on the ballot required the GOP fudge election laws and postpone a major statewide election.

The backlash for this was large, and only compounded by the fact that Bob Franks could not successfully articulate a reason for being in the race. Despite having near universal organizational support, Franks lost the primary in a landslide to conservative upstart Bret Schundler.

Schundler was too conservative to win in New Jersey -- or, at least, that was the message successfully built by the Democratic opposition. Schundler failed to win over the GOP organization that he led a revolt against, and ultimately, he was left fending for himself as Republican Party resources went into defending GOP legislative majorities above all else. To that end, they did a good job -- Republican candidates held seats in some districts that went 2:1 for Gore a year prior. Republicans drew to a 20-20 draw in the State Senate, one of the better results they could have hoped for.

2001 had little to do with Whitman. True, Schundler's early base was those GOP voters who never approved of Whitman in the first place, but he required so much more to actually score  the Pyhrric victory.

That's true, it had very little to do with Whitman at all. B33 is the one who mentioned here in the first place.

But if is very unlikely that any GOP candidate would have won that year; they were losing in all the polls that Quinnipiac has posted for the entire 2001 cycle.

Which 66% Gore district are you referring to? The GOP held the same 16 they have now, plus 1, 2, 4, and 14. The Democrats came within a few hundred votes of winning 1, didn't run a candidate in 2, and won 4 a couple years later in 2003 despite the fact that the state already disliked McGreevey.

It is no surprise to me that the Democrats would do best in times when jobs are plentiful and tax mutiny is at its low point. On other issues they are a better fit for the state.
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« Reply #131 on: July 07, 2011, 05:53:21 pm »

Rose Heck won her Assembly race in LD38, a solid 2:1 Gore area.
In LD07, Sen. Diane Allen won easily -- this is another district that went 2:1 Gore. It's the most Democratic territory of Burlington plus a slug of Camden County.
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« Reply #132 on: July 07, 2011, 07:51:16 pm »

Rose Heck won her Assembly race in LD38, a solid 2:1 Gore area.
In LD07, Sen. Diane Allen won easily -- this is another district that went 2:1 Gore. It's the most Democratic territory of Burlington plus a slug of Camden County.

Heck won in 2001 as an incumbent by the narrowest of narrow margins, and her seat was taken by a Democrat in 2003 while she ran for the State Senate and lost.

Allen's appeal obviously goes beyond her party label, as she has consistently won in her heavily Democratic district by comfortable margins.
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« Reply #133 on: July 08, 2011, 02:01:36 pm »

And, as a follow up to my NJ-05 "fair fight" map, I created a NJ-12 "fair fight" map. This is the most likely type map for New Jersey to draw (at least with respect to NJ-12).



It's something of a mix between Holt's district and Lance's district. Lance's Hunterdon base is included in its near entirety. The western half of the current NJ-07 is essentially given to Rodney Frelinghuysen, who gains a lot of nominally Republican towns in Union and Middlesex. Chris Smith's district becomes an almost entirely Monmouth-based one, though he would also represent some of the more Democratic parts of Burlington (to help out Runyan, who now gets a district that voted for McCain).

Meanwhile, Rush Holt keeps almost all of Mercer (Smith keeps only his home town of Hamilton, and a small part of Trenton) and his territory in Monmouth and Middlesex.

I had to draw an ugly (but safe!) district for Pascrell, who keeps all of his Passaic County base, but snakes south through to eat the more Democratic parts of Woodbridge (Frelinghuysen gets the GOP parts). Payne's CD-10 starts snaking down south, eating a lot of black-majority territory along the way. Sires's newly labeled CD-07 stops a lot farther north, prioritizing the consumption of Hispanic territory.

2008 Presidential numbers
NJ-1: 67.8% Obama
NJ-2: 51.8% Obama
NJ-3: 50.4% McCain
NJ-4: 51.7% McCain
NJ-5: 56.7% McCain
NJ-6: 65.3% Obama
NJ-7: 72.8% Obama
NJ-8: 61.9% Obama
NJ-9: 59.3% Obama
NJ-10: 85.2% Obama
NJ-11: 52.4% McCain
NJ-12: 54.0% Obama (50.3% Republican)


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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #134 on: July 08, 2011, 02:21:25 pm »

And, as a follow up to my NJ-05 "fair fight" map, I created a NJ-12 "fair fight" map. This is the most likely type map for New Jersey to draw (at least with respect to NJ-12).



It's something of a mix between Holt's district and Lance's district. Lance's Hunterdon base is included in its near entirety. The western half of the current NJ-07 is essentially given to Rodney Frelinghuysen, who gains a lot of nominally Republican towns in Union and Middlesex. Chris Smith's district becomes an almost entirely Monmouth-based one, though he would also represent some of the more Democratic parts of Burlington (to help out Runyan, who now gets a district that voted for McCain).

Meanwhile, Rush Holt keeps almost all of Mercer (Smith keeps only his home town of Hamilton, and a small part of Trenton) and his territory in Monmouth and Middlesex.

I had to draw an ugly (but safe!) district for Pascrell, who keeps all of his Passaic County base, but snakes south through to eat the more Democratic parts of Woodbridge (Frelinghuysen gets the GOP parts). Payne's CD-10 starts snaking down south, eating a lot of black-majority territory along the way. Sires's newly labeled CD-07 stops a lot farther north, prioritizing the consumption of Hispanic territory.

2008 Presidential numbers
NJ-1: 67.8% Obama
NJ-2: 51.8% Obama
NJ-3: 50.4% McCain
NJ-4: 51.7% McCain
NJ-5: 56.7% McCain
NJ-6: 65.3% Obama
NJ-7: 72.8% Obama
NJ-8: 61.9% Obama
NJ-9: 59.3% Obama
NJ-10: 85.2% Obama
NJ-11: 52.4% McCain
NJ-12: 54.0% Obama (50.3% Republican)




While that is similar to what I expect NJ-12 to look like post-redistricting, I don't think South Jersey is going to end up quite like that. If the Democrats are going to concede NJ-3, they're not going to want to take all of the Democrats out of NJ-2 as well. They're going to want to keep it leaning Democratic in the event LoBiondo retires.
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« Reply #135 on: July 08, 2011, 02:34:42 pm »

While that is similar to what I expect NJ-12 to look like post-redistricting, I don't think South Jersey is going to end up quite like that. If the Democrats are going to concede NJ-3, they're not going to want to take all of the Democrats out of NJ-2 as well. They're going to want to keep it leaning Democratic in the event LoBiondo retires.

There's some give and take. Neither NJ-02 nor 03 become safe, merely "safer." NJ-04 actually gets much weaker for Republicans, giving Democrats an opportunity here upon Smith's retirement.
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« Reply #136 on: July 08, 2011, 03:54:28 pm »

51% McCain is not an "opportunity". It would be an opportunity if it voted for Obama.

There's no compromise on that map, just a Republican map. A compromise map would either be more favorable to Holt (maybe 56-57% Obama) or not make NJ-02 and NJ-03 safer.
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« Reply #137 on: July 15, 2011, 02:15:02 pm »

This is the strongest NJ map I could draw. It also splits a lot less townships than the current map.

Monmouth county will get its own Republican when Chris Smith retires. Runyan would be very happy with Willingboro and Cherry Hill removed from his district.



Tiebreaker is a Republican, albiet a Whitman type RINO. Either way, time to merge the 4 NE districts into 3.

http://www.politickernj.com/49637/breaking-dems-and-gop-agree-farmer-13th-member

The consensus choice by Republican and Democratic members to be the 13th member of the congressional redistricting commission is John Farmer, Jr., former attorney general and counsel to the 911 commission.

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« Reply #138 on: July 16, 2011, 11:57:49 pm »

I do think the Holt vs. Lance race would be fair but only in a 56-57% Obama district
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« Reply #139 on: July 18, 2011, 07:31:26 am »

Former Attorney General John Farmer is the tiebreaker for the Congressional map. He served under Whitman and DiFrancesco.
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« Reply #140 on: July 21, 2011, 02:18:23 pm »

Former Attorney General John Farmer is the tiebreaker for the Congressional map. He served under Whitman and DiFrancesco.

He was also Acting Governor by virtue of a constitutional glitch in 2002.

He's a very interesting choice. Certainly has his ties to the Republicans, but despite that, he has a very positive reputation as a fair-minded individual. A win for the GOP, if only because they have a person who won't intentionally kneecap them in redistricting the way they've been kneecapped before.
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« Reply #141 on: August 29, 2011, 06:16:17 pm »

First commission meeting next week. Thoughts?
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« Reply #142 on: September 17, 2011, 11:25:07 am »

With all the Turner excitement, NJ seems to be getting overlooked. Do we see R vs. D R vs. R or D vs. D? Will they try to draw a new coalition or Hispanic influence seat?
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« Reply #143 on: September 17, 2011, 12:14:43 pm »

Will they try to draw a new coalition or Hispanic influence seat?

They can't really do either; since NJ is losing a seat, they're going to have to make NJ-10 snake out to maintain its black majority, and NJ-13 wasn't drawn majority-Hispanic last time around, so they'll probably be more interested in maintaining it or making it majority-Hispanic.
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« Reply #144 on: September 17, 2011, 12:17:38 pm »

With all the Turner excitement, NJ seems to be getting overlooked. Do we see R vs. D R vs. R or D vs. D? Will they try to draw a new coalition or Hispanic influence seat?

Population losses were heaviest in the 4 northeastern Democrat districts, and the tiebreaker is a Republican. If he is half the partisan hack that Rosenthal was the answer is quite clear.
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« Reply #145 on: September 17, 2011, 02:18:17 pm »

So is Rothman in trouble with no commission allies and the recent re-ascendance of the Bergen GOP?
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« Reply #146 on: September 17, 2011, 04:33:29 pm »

So is Rothman in trouble with no commission allies and the recent re-ascendance of the Bergen GOP?

That is certainly a valid possibility given how he has many hispanic dominated precincts in his district.
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« Reply #147 on: September 17, 2011, 09:17:14 pm »

Also, I make no claims about Ocean County. I've never really looked at it and don't know it, and the growth seems to be senior citizens, which is going to make it more conservative.
Orthodox Jews were a big part of their growth
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« Reply #148 on: September 18, 2011, 10:15:31 pm »

Also, I make no claims about Ocean County. I've never really looked at it and don't know it, and the growth seems to be senior citizens, which is going to make it more conservative.
Orthodox Jews were a big part of their growth

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« Reply #149 on: September 19, 2011, 07:57:08 am »

I want to see a poll showing Dan Malloy's popularity plummeting among Orthodox Jews.
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