Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 20, 2018, 06:15:38 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 Print
Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey  (Read 39358 times)
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,479
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #200 on: December 21, 2011, 03:01:21 pm »

The northern part of Passaic and Bergen is not entirely unlike Sussex. The rest of Bergen that Garrett represents is "moderate Republican" territory, but the congressman is popular there.

He'll struggle in the parts of Bergen unfamiliar with him, but I doubt he'll have trouble in the parts he already represents.
Logged

Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,780


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #201 on: December 21, 2011, 03:14:20 pm »

Any word on what time the maps will be released today?
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,300
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #202 on: December 21, 2011, 05:17:23 pm »

The northern part of Passaic and Bergen is not entirely unlike Sussex. The rest of Bergen that Garrett represents is "moderate Republican" territory, but the congressman is popular there.

He'll struggle in the parts of Bergen unfamiliar with him, but I doubt he'll have trouble in the parts he already represents.

Maybe not against a generic D, but he'd underperform against Rothman, who was elected in county-wide races before.
Logged

Seriously, it was time to change back to the real avatar.
PulaskiSkywayDriver
Full Member
***
Posts: 110


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #203 on: December 21, 2011, 08:02:41 pm »

Rothman I dont think was elected, I think he was a judge.

They say the map will be released tonight or tomorrow. I get the feeling that a tighter ship is being run here than with the legislative redistricting but some bitterness that Pascrell refuses to retire and may end up forcing the younger Rothman into a tough race.
Logged

Urban Republican, new NJ-8 (Formerly NJ-13)
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,300
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #204 on: December 21, 2011, 08:40:31 pm »

Rothman I dont think was elected, I think he was a judge.

They say the map will be released tonight or tomorrow. I get the feeling that a tighter ship is being run here than with the legislative redistricting but some bitterness that Pascrell refuses to retire and may end up forcing the younger Rothman into a tough race.

I could be wrong, but I thought someone said he was elected in a county-wide race?

Or maybe it was simply that he served in a county level office.
Logged

Seriously, it was time to change back to the real avatar.
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,802


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #205 on: December 21, 2011, 09:19:30 pm »

Let me Wikipedia that for you:

"Rothman attended Washington University Law School. He served as Mayor of Englewood, New Jersey for two terms (19831989), a Bergen County Surrogate Court Judge (19931996), and practiced law as a private attorney."
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #206 on: December 21, 2011, 09:40:18 pm »

Rothman I dont think was elected, I think he was a judge.

They say the map will be released tonight or tomorrow. I get the feeling that a tighter ship is being run here than with the legislative redistricting but some bitterness that Pascrell refuses to retire and may end up forcing the younger Rothman into a tough race.

Would not be surprising at all, as CD-8 and CD-9 are both smaller than CD-5. This would indeed be consistent with the principles of vengeance, and also consistent with the Rosenthal principles.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,780


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #207 on: December 21, 2011, 11:07:32 pm »

Today was the deadline set by the chairman because he wanted it done before Christmas. Word is that the finished map could be out tomorrow morning.
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,866
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #208 on: December 22, 2011, 03:16:11 pm »

My ideal plan would involve snaking NJ-7 right down from Hunterdon into Mercer County and Trenton while giving Holt more of southern Middlesex county to make up for part of Mercer lost. Of course this will never happen Sad
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,479
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #209 on: December 22, 2011, 06:13:08 pm »

Rothman I dont think was elected, I think he was a judge.

They say the map will be released tonight or tomorrow. I get the feeling that a tighter ship is being run here than with the legislative redistricting but some bitterness that Pascrell refuses to retire and may end up forcing the younger Rothman into a tough race.

I could be wrong, but I thought someone said he was elected in a county-wide race?

Or maybe it was simply that he served in a county level office.

Bergen County Surrogate is a county-wide elected position.
Logged

Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
traininthedistance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,569


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #210 on: December 22, 2011, 11:04:17 pm »

My ideal plan would involve snaking NJ-7 right down from Hunterdon into Mercer County and Trenton while giving Holt more of southern Middlesex county to make up for part of Mercer lost. Of course this will never happen Sad

My ideal plan would vaporize NJ-7 (or rather vaporize NJ-12 and turn NJ-7 into a compact Middlesex district that Lance wouldn't want), split NJ-3 and NJ-4 east-west rather than north-south, and clean up some of the other lines as necessary.  From a good government standpoint, the preferred mashup should probably be Lance v. Pallone, since they have the two worst districts right now, and Middlesex deserves a district of its own.

If the Dems had free reign to gerrymander, they could even try and take out LoBiondo by unpacking Camden.  But I kinda like LoBiondo, he's pretty much the only Republican left who's genuinely sane on environmental issues.
Logged



Quote from: Alice Goodman
To those who come prepared to see and hear only what they want to see and hear, nothing one can say is of any use.

Economic: -4.45
Social: -6.52
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #211 on: December 22, 2011, 11:22:27 pm »

Today was the deadline set by the chairman because he wanted it done before Christmas. Word is that the finished map could be out tomorrow morning.

Both sides maps pair CD-5 with CD-9, nominally. How 'fairness' is defined is yet to be determined; of course; the Democrats rarely win districts in New Jersey without a registration edge.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,780


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #212 on: December 22, 2011, 11:38:55 pm »

The vote is at 10 AM tomorrow. I'll be in attendance for the drama.  Smiley
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
traininthedistance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,569


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #213 on: December 22, 2011, 11:46:55 pm »

Here's what I would consider the "cleanest", fairest possible map for NJ.  The overriding goals are to not split municipalities and counties more than absolutely necessary, and keep cohesive regions together.  My goal was to have all districts within 1000 of the ideal, but NJ-11 is 1,061 people short.  Dammit.  Only four towns are split, all for the express purpose of keeping NJ-10 majority black, and except for Essex and Union, no county has more than two districts (again for VRA purposes).  (Sires' district is not currently majority-Hispanic, so there is no reason to go out of the way to boost Hispanic % above what we have now; the new district is just over 50% Hispanic by total population but a bit less than that by voting age.  It'll elect a Latino anyway.)  It's a tiny bit better for the Dems than what we have now, but it was not made with partisan goals in mind.  (A partisan map would have tried to boost the Dem performance NJ-6 and crack Camden to weaken LoBiondo, among other changes.)

The state as a whole:



Closeup on the Northeast:



District-by-district comments:
CD 1: Obama 64%, Dem 62%.  Camden County is made whole, and the parts of Burlington and Gloucester closest to Philly are added for population.  Safe D for Andrews.

CD 2: Obama 55%, Dem 53%.  The South Jersey district; Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Salem, and most of Gloucester.  Still more-or-less safe for LoBiondo, but probably tilt D in an open seat scenario.

CD 3: Obama 63%, Dem 57%.  Burlington and Mercer, give or take a couple towns necessary for population.  Splitting South Jersey east-west makes much more sense than north-south, as we then have a Delaware River district (which is part of the Philly metro) and a Jersey Shore district (which is part of NYC metro), and we don't have to cross the Pinelands.  Runyan, Smith, and Holt all live here, actually, and none of them would love this district (though Holt would probably win it).  It's crazy that all the Reps down here are near the river rather than the ocean, surely one would move.

CD 4: Obama 42%, Dem 42%.  Ocean County is made whole and parts of Monmouth are added for population.  Safe R, Smith or Runyan could move here and win easy.

CD 5: Obama 42%, Dem 39%.  Garrett country, Safe R.  All of Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, and the most rural parts of Morris, Passaic, and Bergen.  I don't like that I had to throw Butler from Morris County in here, or that I had to split Morris at all, but it keeps the lines prettier then trying to take from Somerset instead.

CD 6: Obama 52%, Dem 50%.  The Monmouth district, with Robbinsville and swingy southern Middlesex.  Pallone would throw an absolute fit, and this would be a top Republican target.  But the geography of this Central Jersey district makes a lot more sense.

CD 7: Obama 62%, Dem 60%.  Urban Middlesex and southern Somerset, a growing area that deserves a Rep but is currently carved up by outsiders Lance, Holt, and Pallone.  Holt or Pallone might carpetbag here but I'd rather see an actual resident run.  Only 49 percent white by VAP, Asians are a sizeable minority here and this could be an opportunity district for them.

CD 8: Obama 62%, Dem 60%.  Pascrell's district, and where I grew up.  Take away the minority areas of Essex and southern Passaic plus suburban Essex fits a district perfectly.  No reason not to draw this.

CD 9: Obama 58%, Dem 59%.  An all-Bergen (and somewhat weaker) district for Rothman.  You could throw a finger down to Hoboken if you really needed to make Sires' district majority-Hispanic by VAP, but that's really not necessary and this district is perfect as is.

CD 10: Obama 83%, Dem 80%.  Splits Montclair with NJ-8, and Newark/Jersey City/Elizabeth with NJ-12 to keep the Black VAP just over 50 percent.  An earlier draft threw a finger out to Plainfield and split Union with NJ-11 to boost the Black percentage to 52, but that's probably not necessary and this map is prettier.  You could split a couple precincts (and a couple more towns) in the Newark Bay area to give NJ-10 and NJ-12 road contiguity, and in the actual map that's what I'd prefer to do.

CD 11: Obama 49%, Dem 45%.  Don't be fooled by the Obama percentage, this is Safe R for Freylinghusen for years to come.  Most of Morris, half of Union and Somerset.  Country club territory though and through.

CD 12: Obama 70%, Dem 71%.  Much cleaner than Sires' current district and still a touch more Hispanic.  Most of Hudson, most of Elizabeth, and the most Hispanic parts of Essex County- the Ironbound, North Ward, and Belleville.

...

It should go without saying that this map is sheer fantasy, of course.  But it's a nice fantasy.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2011, 11:58:36 pm by traininthedistance »Logged



Quote from: Alice Goodman
To those who come prepared to see and hear only what they want to see and hear, nothing one can say is of any use.

Economic: -4.45
Social: -6.52
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,866
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #214 on: December 23, 2011, 01:04:37 am »

Considering Garrett is a tea partier and the tiebreaker vote is a moderate, my money would be on him taking the Dems map but you never can be sure. The GOP attempting to give Garrett a 50-51% McCain district and strengthening NJ-3 while the dems have a tossup Rothman/Garrett plus NJ-3 remaining swing territory sounds like a much fairer deal.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,802


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #215 on: December 23, 2011, 08:27:57 am »

Republican picks Republican map.
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #216 on: December 23, 2011, 09:19:07 am »


How amusing and unexpected. It's almost like the Democrat picking the Democrat map in numerous states, including this one.


GOP map shores up Runyan by a couple points, and puts Lance in a strongly GOP district. Lobiondo is about the same.

Rothman's entire south Bergen base is elsewhere. He might not even run in CD-5.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2011, 09:23:46 am by krazen1211 »Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,866
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #217 on: December 23, 2011, 09:36:41 am »

The Dems probably should have written off the north jersey  seat and tried to gain more friendly districts either in 3 or 7. NE Jersey did lose the most population so it's not that shocking it loses a seat. It sounds like the dems have a chance to win NJ-2,3 but the GOP has no chance in hell for any of the 6 dems. Another boring decade.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,780


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #218 on: December 23, 2011, 10:17:41 am »

The map is about to be unveiled!
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #219 on: December 23, 2011, 10:38:41 am »

http://blog.northjersey.com/thesource/files/2011/12/NJ-2011-CD-Map-Final-with-Towns.pdf

Slam dunk districts for the GOP.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,780


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #220 on: December 23, 2011, 10:41:53 am »

NJ 2 is now a Republican district. Wink
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,780


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #221 on: December 23, 2011, 10:43:54 am »

Runyan must have gotten Republican areas that they weren't expecting. Someone gasped as the map was revealed, "Oh my God. Look at the 3rd!"
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #222 on: December 23, 2011, 10:48:29 am »

Runyan must have gotten Republican areas that they weren't expecting. Someone gasped as the map was revealed, "Oh my God. Look at the 3rd!"

He traded Cherry Hill to the south for 67% Christie Brick township to the North. That was however very much expected.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,780


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #223 on: December 23, 2011, 10:54:23 am »

Former Speaker Roberts (D) admits that Garrett has the advantage in the Garrett-Rothman race and Runyan's district is less competitive than before (despite the Chairman's assertion that both districts are competitive).
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,485
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #224 on: December 23, 2011, 10:59:43 am »

Ocean County should all be in one district (the 4th), it certainly would fit in one district.

Republicans shut themselves out of winning the 6th and 12th, so that's one good thing about the map.
Logged

LOCK TRUMP UP!
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines