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Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey  (Read 39403 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #50 on: January 17, 2011, 12:20:27 am »

Most NJ Republicans are extreme pro-life zealots? Not quite.

No, sorry. Most Republicans here are basically moderate Democrats. We have very few conservative Republicans.
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« Reply #51 on: January 17, 2011, 12:23:11 am »

Smith is moderate on the wrong issues for most of NJ though. He'd fit better in western Pennsylvania or somewhere like that.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #52 on: January 21, 2011, 03:27:50 pm »

All right, whoever said you couldn't get rid of Jon Runyan is wrong. This map does that and protects the remaining incumbents for a 7-5 map. I tried to minimize splits of municipalities, except of course for the minority districts.

State



North Jersey



South Jersey



NJ-01 (blue, Rob Andrews - D) - Pretty much the same; added Cherry Hill, so Adler can run here if Andrews retires in the near future.
NJ-02 (green, Frank LoBiondo - R) - Also pretty similar; adds a bit of Ocean County, which should please LoBiondo.
NJ-03 (purple, Jon Runyan - R and Rush Holt - D) - Cuts out all the Republican areas and adds most of Mercer County. Wouldn't be a fair fight; Holt would crush Runyan.
NJ-04 (red, Chris Smith - R) - Adds most of Ocean and the Republican parts of Burlington, loses the Dem-leaning parts of Burlington. Easily a safe Republican seat now.
NJ-05 (yellow, Scott Garrett - R) - Stretches along the northern end of the state, safe R.
NJ-06 (teal, Frank Pallone - D) - Removed as much of Monmouth as possible, added more of Middlesex. This map would have been a lot easier to draw if Pallone lived in Middlesex, Smith in Ocean, and Lance in Monmouth.
NJ-07 (grey, Leonard Lance - R) - Stretches across the state to take in almost all of Monmouth. Safe R, though Lance might have some trouble winning a primary here.
NJ-08 (light purple, Bill Pascrell - D) - This is kind of the "leftovers" district, as it stretches down past Newark into Middlesex and Union. Interesting demographics: 48% white, 29% Hispanic, 15% black, 7% Asian.
NJ-09 (sky blue, Steve Rothman - D) - Pretty similar, except it cuts into Essex County now. Another diverse district, at 59% white, 18% Hispanic, 14% Asian, and 7% black.
NJ-10 (magenta, Don Payne - D) - Takes in almost all of the majority-black areas of the state. 53% black.
NJ-11 (light green, Rodney Frelinghuysen - R) - Stretches to the west, trades territory with NJ-05.
NJ-12 (very light purple, Albio Sires - D) - The old NJ-13, pretty much the same. 54% Hispanic now, where it wasn't even majority-Hispanic before.
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Verily
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« Reply #53 on: January 21, 2011, 05:20:42 pm »

I have some nitpicks here and there. I think you unintentionally chopped off the NE corner of Ridgewood from NJ-09 and also put the southwestern corner of Belleville in the new NJ-12 for unknown reasons.

Also, I don't understand why you put Tenafly and Englewood Cliffs in NJ-05; Englewood Cliffs is marginally Republican (around 51% McCain), but Tenafly is substantially Democratic (around 63% Obama) and a lot bigger. Better to cut out a marginal town elsewhere, like Ridgewood.

Also not sure why Prospect Park and Haledon are in NJ-05 instead of NJ-08. They are much more Democratic than Woodland Park.

I would also try to fit the Republicans in central Union County into Frelinghuysen's district. You can do this by taking the D-leaning shore towns in Monmouth in NJ-07 (like Tinton Falls, Eatontown and Red Bank) and put them in NJ-06, leaving room for NJ-07 to take in population from NJ-11 after NJ-11 takes in the Republican towns in Union County from NJ-06.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #54 on: January 21, 2011, 06:09:27 pm »

I would also try to fit the Republicans in central Union County into Frelinghuysen's district. You can do this by taking the D-leaning shore towns in Monmouth in NJ-07 (like Tinton Falls, Eatontown and Red Bank) and put them in NJ-06, leaving room for NJ-07 to take in population from NJ-11 after NJ-11 takes in the Republican towns in Union County from NJ-06.

I second this. Taking places like Red Bank out of NJ-07  in favor of territory more familiar with Lance in northern Hunterdon and Warren (Warren County was in Lance's old state senate district) could also be enough to discourage someone like Jennifer Beck from primarying Lance.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #55 on: January 21, 2011, 06:44:20 pm »

All right, whoever said you couldn't get rid of Jon Runyan is wrong. This map does that and protects the remaining incumbents for a 7-5 map. I tried to minimize splits of municipalities, except of course for the minority districts.


It's impossible in the political sense, not the logistical sense.

South Jersey is not going to lose a Congressman when all the population loss has been in North Jersey.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #56 on: January 21, 2011, 08:20:40 pm »

All right, whoever said you couldn't get rid of Jon Runyan is wrong. This map does that and protects the remaining incumbents for a 7-5 map. I tried to minimize splits of municipalities, except of course for the minority districts.


It's impossible in the political sense, not the logistical sense.

South Jersey is not going to lose a Congressman when all the population loss has been in North Jersey.

To be fair, I was the one who said it was impossible in the logistical sense while eliminating a Republican seat, and I was wrong.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #57 on: January 21, 2011, 08:23:08 pm »

You guys ruin all my fun. Also, I have no idea what you're talking about, because I don't have New Jersey's towns memorized. I was eyeballing everything from this map.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #58 on: January 21, 2011, 10:37:18 pm »

You guys ruin all my fun. Also, I have no idea what you're talking about, because I don't have New Jersey's towns memorized. I was eyeballing everything from this map.

Essentially we're saying you should rotate CD's 6, 7, 11, and 8 clockwise a bit. Pallone should pick up some more of those Democratic towns in eastern Monmouth (Tinton Falls, Eatontown, Red Bank), Lance should gain the rest of Hunterdon and some of Warren, Frelinghuysen should pick up western Union (which is more Republican than the 2008 Presidential election results make it look), and Pascrell should take in more of Middlesex.
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« Reply #59 on: January 22, 2011, 11:27:08 am »

It totally makes sense for Belleville and Bloomfield to be split in two. Both towns have R-leaning, still Italian northern wards that are extensions of neighboring Nutley, and then minority-majority wards in their southern sections. Similar thing in Kearny in Hudson County.

I'm not sure Bill Pascrell would like having a district that is now concentrated in Woodbridge-Summit-Scotch Plains. Those towns are Obama-Christie swingers and while Pascrell might do well, why wouldn't a Democrat in that area want the seat? (Particularly after their decades of frustration of being represnted by Rinaldo, Franks, Ferguson and Lance). On the other hand, if Pascrell goes into Morris or Sussex his chances darken considerably.

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Brittain33
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« Reply #60 on: January 22, 2011, 11:39:13 am »

Pascrell is 74 years old this year, FWIW.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #61 on: January 22, 2011, 12:10:29 pm »

Here are the election results from the past six statewide elections for the towns in western Union County that JohnnyLongtorso put in NJ-08 (Clark Twp., Cranford Twp., Fanwood, Garwood, Kenilworth, Mountainside, Scotch Plains Twp., Summit, Westfield, and Winfield Twp.). I specifically omitted black-majority Plainfield from these totals.

2009 Gubernatorial:
Christie (R): 28,046
Corzine (D): 19,598

2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 38,538
McCain (R): 36,981

2008 Senatorial:
Zimmer (R): 35,217
Lautenberg (D): 32,780

2006 Senatorial:
Kean (R): 26,195
Menendez (D): 23,456

2005 Gubernatorial:
Forrester (R): 25,273
Corzine (D): 23,983

2004 Presidential:
Bush (R): 37,756
Kerry (D): 35,584
« Last Edit: January 22, 2011, 01:16:35 pm by His Excellency Chancellor Vazdul, Senator of Bedford Parish »Logged

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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #62 on: January 22, 2011, 01:01:29 pm »

Competitive but leans Republican.

Haven't drawn it out, but would it make any sense to give Pascrell white-majority but still Democratic leaning enclaves in Hudson like Bayonne, Hoboken and parts of Jersey City?

I have to guess a GOP plan puts Rothman and Pascrell, or Rothman and Sires together.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #63 on: January 22, 2011, 01:25:57 pm »

Haven't drawn it out, but would it make any sense to give Pascrell white-majority but still Democratic leaning enclaves in Hudson like Bayonne, Hoboken and parts of Jersey City?

I don't think so. To get there you'd need to cut through the minority districts, and even if you went around the 10th it would cut the 13th in half. The only way to get Sires' district back up to Hispanic-majority would be to screw over Pascrell by going into Paterson, which defeats the purpose.
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Verily
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« Reply #64 on: January 22, 2011, 01:33:12 pm »

You can get Hoboken into Rothman's district fairly easily, however. I have done so on my map, putting all of Kearny in Sires's district in exchange (all of Kearny is more Hispanic than Hoboken).

Bayonne isn't even very Democratic (only in the low 50s Obama), so it's not worth it. Better for the Democrats for it to be tied up in a Hispanic seat.

Also, at least on Johnny's map, Pascrell's seat still has the bulk of its population in Passaic County and in D fortresses elsewhere like Plainfield and Montclair. So having some swingy-towns in Union and Middlesex is not such a concern (but you should really try to get >60% McCain Clark out of his district if possible, perhaps by going through Westfield, which was only around 55% Obama). Remember, his current seat has some really R towns in Passaic like Wayne, North Haledon and Totowa in it, so Johnny's version is probably more D than the old version.

Anyway, not possible to put Rothman and Sires together--Sires's seat has to stay substantially Hispanic, and there aren't enough Hispanics in Bergen County to push it north. Probably possible to put Rothman and Pascrell together, but there's no way it would happen. The likely R plan would probably put Smith and Pallone together in an R seat. (Pallone lives on the shore in Monmouth, so you have to really reach to get him into a D seat.)
« Last Edit: January 22, 2011, 01:42:03 pm by Verily »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #65 on: January 22, 2011, 02:00:57 pm »

You can get Hoboken into Rothman's district fairly easily, however. I have done so on my map, putting all of Kearny in Sires's district in exchange (all of Kearny is more Hispanic than Hoboken).

Bayonne isn't even very Democratic (only in the low 50s Obama), so it's not worth it. Better for the Democrats for it to be tied up in a Hispanic seat.

Also, at least on Johnny's map, Pascrell's seat still has the bulk of its population in Passaic County and in D fortresses elsewhere like Plainfield and Montclair. So having some swingy-towns in Union and Middlesex is not such a concern (but you should really try to get >60% McCain Clark out of his district if possible, perhaps by going through Westfield, which was only around 55% Obama). Remember, his current seat has some really R towns in Passaic like Wayne, North Haledon and Totowa in it, so Johnny's version is probably more D than the old version.

Anyway, not possible to put Rothman and Sires together--Sires's seat has to stay substantially Hispanic, and there aren't enough Hispanics in Bergen County to push it north. Probably possible to put Rothman and Pascrell together, but there's no way it would happen. The likely R plan would probably put Smith and Pallone together in an R seat. (Pallone lives on the shore in Monmouth, so you have to really reach to get him into a D seat.)

Depends on how much influence Pallone has. Him and Smith have seniority in the delegation. It's harder to see them put together than it is to see Vazdul's plan from page 2 drawn, which merges Sires and Pascrell and utterly screws Pascrell over.
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« Reply #66 on: January 22, 2011, 02:12:06 pm »

One scenario on a Republican map could be for Sires (who is pretty far north in Hudson) to absorb some real-estate in the Meadowlands and the Palisades communities and go into heavily  minority and Democratic Hackensack (which is very similarly demograhically and economically to much of his current district). Pascrell could take remaining D-leaning Territory in Bergen, with Garrett absorbing Fair Lawn (which is only marginally Democratic AND only voted 5100 to 4100 for hometown son Rothman in 2010,), as well as GOP leaning Saddle Brook. Considering Garrett won this past election 65-35, even a little bit of boost for Rothman in the Bergen parts of a new NJ-5 would not be enough to overcome Garrett's strong base.
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« Reply #67 on: January 22, 2011, 02:17:52 pm »

One scenario on a Republican map could be for Sires (who is pretty far north in Hudson) to absorb some real-estate in the Meadowlands and the Palisades communities and go into heavily  minority and Democratic Hackensack (which is very similarly demograhically and economically to much of his current district). Pascrell could take remaining D-leaning Territory in Bergen, with Garrett absorbing Fair Lawn (which is only marginally Democratic AND only voted 5100 to 4100 for hometown son Rothman in 2010,), as well as GOP leaning Saddle Brook. Considering Garrett won this past election 65-35, even a little bit of boost for Rothman in the Bergen parts of a new NJ-5 would not be enough to overcome Garrett's strong base.

Hudson County is not that far short of a whole district all by itself. If you're pushing north into Bergen, it isn't very far, not far enough to even reach the Democratic trifecta in central Bergen (Englewood, Teaneck and Hackensack).

Also, although he lives there, Rothman is not Fair Lawn's hometown son. He's from Englewood and was mayor here back in the 1980s.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #68 on: January 22, 2011, 02:19:46 pm »

One scenario on a Republican map could be for Sires (who is pretty far north in Hudson) to absorb some real-estate in the Meadowlands and the Palisades communities and go into heavily  minority and Democratic Hackensack (which is very similarly demograhically and economically to much of his current district). Pascrell could take remaining D-leaning Territory in Bergen, with Garrett absorbing Fair Lawn (which is only marginally Democratic AND only voted 5100 to 4100 for hometown son Rothman in 2010,), as well as GOP leaning Saddle Brook. Considering Garrett won this past election 65-35, even a little bit of boost for Rothman in the Bergen parts of a new NJ-5 would not be enough to overcome Garrett's strong base.

If I were the GOP, I wouldn't want to pit the polarizing Garrett against another incumbent, even if he were favored to win. Why not simply primary Rothman and Pascrell instead?
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #69 on: January 22, 2011, 02:39:34 pm »

Also, at least on Johnny's map, Pascrell's seat still has the bulk of its population in Passaic County and in D fortresses elsewhere like Plainfield and Montclair. So having some swingy-towns in Union and Middlesex is not such a concern (but you should really try to get >60% McCain Clark out of his district if possible, perhaps by going through Westfield, which was only around 55% Obama). Remember, his current seat has some really R towns in Passaic like Wayne, North Haledon and Totowa in it, so Johnny's version is probably more D than the old version.

My bigger concern is that the GOP might not be too happy about both losing Runyan and leaving Lance open to a primary challenge by a Monmouth County Republican. Jennifer Beck is a rising star who has a history of winning tough races (she unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2007 who outspent her 7 to 1). Cutting places like Tinton Falls, Eatontown, and her hometown of Red Bank out of the 7th might discourage her ambitions.
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« Reply #70 on: January 22, 2011, 03:12:07 pm »

This is the strongest NJ map I could draw. It also splits a lot less townships than the current map.

Monmouth county will get its own Republican when Chris Smith retires. Runyan would be very happy with Willingboro and Cherry Hill removed from his district.

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« Reply #71 on: January 22, 2011, 03:34:38 pm »

Verily is right about Rothman being from Englewood, but still surprising were his numbers in Fair Lawn this time (though it is not a particularly strong town for Pres. Obama). I think Hudson will come in around 620k in population, so even if Sires got all of Hudson it needs to pick up 112k somewhere. Conventionally, there would be incursions into North Newark and Elizabeth, but they could decide to send him a little north. In turn, they could Pallone some precincts along the Arthur Kill in Linden and Elizabeth.
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« Reply #72 on: January 23, 2011, 03:58:00 pm »

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/01/tea_party_group_in_nj_redestri.html
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« Reply #73 on: January 26, 2011, 02:40:54 am »


With tools like Dave's App and others that will be coming online this spring with the 2010 numbers, I expect more groups to take an interest and draw their own maps.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #74 on: March 05, 2011, 02:11:40 pm »

One scenario on a Republican map could be for Sires (who is pretty far north in Hudson) to absorb some real-estate in the Meadowlands and the Palisades communities and go into heavily  minority and Democratic Hackensack (which is very similarly demograhically and economically to much of his current district). Pascrell could take remaining D-leaning Territory in Bergen, with Garrett absorbing Fair Lawn (which is only marginally Democratic AND only voted 5100 to 4100 for hometown son Rothman in 2010,), as well as GOP leaning Saddle Brook. Considering Garrett won this past election 65-35, even a little bit of boost for Rothman in the Bergen parts of a new NJ-5 would not be enough to overcome Garrett's strong base.

If you want to get Hispanics into Sires's district, it makes much more sense to shove it up to Paterson instead, not into Bergen County. Garrett can munch a lot of the central Bergen towns all the way down to Hackensack/Bergenfield. Wayne and Totowa also go into Garrett's district.

That lets him drop Warren County entirely.

As per your previous post, I think you meant Montclair and Bloomfield, not Bloomfield and Belleville? There are no concentrations of white precincts anywhere in Belleville.

If you are willing to split a lot of townships in Essex County, you get something like this on my previous map. This pretty much splits everything from Maplewood to Bloomfield.



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« Last Edit: March 05, 2011, 02:22:24 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
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