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  U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey
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Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey  (Read 41594 times)
Verily
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« Reply #75 on: March 28, 2011, 10:15:04 pm »
« edited: March 28, 2011, 10:17:07 pm by Verily »

My new design, likely very close to the actual result. I had details written up, but the stupid forum lost them. Destroyed Lance's district, shored up everyone else except LoBiondo, who can't be helped. All seats except LoBiondo's should be safe for their party. Lance is in NJ-05 but wouldn't have a prayer in a primary with Garrett, whose entire base is still in the district. Minimal municipal splits; didn't count them up but probably fewer than the 30 in the current map.

The four non-minority Democratic seats in North/Central Jersey are all 51-54% white. Considered forcing one to be minority-majority but decided it wasn't worth it as the incumbent would win regardless. NJ-10 is 51.9% black VAP; NJ-12 (former NJ-13) is 53.4% Hispanic VAP (!).




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krazen1211
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« Reply #76 on: March 28, 2011, 10:17:54 pm »

http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/11/0327/2357/

"The most likely scenario, just based on geography, is still one that pits Pascrell against Garrett or Frelinghuysen,” one of the Democratic insiders noted."

"Lance is the junior member, but the geography doesn’t work as well unless they rotate all of the districts north of the Raritan River counterclockwise and end up pushing Lance up against Holt. It’s a lot more complicated, though, and half of North and Central Jersey ends up with a new congressman."
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Verily
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« Reply #77 on: March 28, 2011, 10:22:07 pm »

Mine looks a lot simpler than any weird construct that pits Pascrell against Garrett (what? how is that possible?) or Frelinghuysen, both of which would require shifting a lot more territory. My map is pretty conservative, I think.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #78 on: March 28, 2011, 10:38:24 pm »

Mine looks a lot simpler than any weird construct that pits Pascrell against Garrett (what? how is that possible?) or Frelinghuysen, both of which would require shifting a lot more territory. My map is pretty conservative, I think.

How on earth is that simple? That yellow district looks like a McDonalds arch; pitting Rodney against Garrett simply means combining Morris and the southern body of Passaic County.

Incoherent, perhaps, but not complicated.
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Verily
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« Reply #79 on: March 28, 2011, 10:48:37 pm »
« Edited: March 28, 2011, 10:56:03 pm by Verily »

Mine looks a lot simpler than any weird construct that pits Pascrell against Garrett (what? how is that possible?) or Frelinghuysen, both of which would require shifting a lot more territory. My map is pretty conservative, I think.

How on earth is that simple? That yellow district looks like a McDonalds arch; pitting Rodney against Garrett simply means combining Morris and the southern body of Passaic County.

Incoherent, perhaps, but not complicated.

Have you looked at Garrett's current district? It similarly arcs around the edge of the state. The changes to his district on my map are tiny, especially compared to what would have to be massive shifts of population to put him or Frelinghuysen with Pascrell. (Interestingly, I did consider and reject putting Morristown and environs in NJ-08, which would have put Frelinghuysen with Pascrell, but then you would have to redraw my map to put Lance in what is now Frelinghuysen's seat. I suppose that could work, but that's really eliminating Frelinghuysen, not pitting him against anyone, since Morristown is fairly Democratic and most of Morris would still be in Frelinghuysen's former seat.)



If only it were so easy as "simply" combining Morris and southern Passaic. What do you do with everything else? There's a ton of Essex County in NJ-08; it doesn't just disappear, but Morris+southern Passaic is already oversized. You'll be forced to loop NJ-05 further down like I did anyway--but then you run into Lance in Hunterdon. It is pure fantasy to think such would be easy. (It would if you were operating on a blank slate, but we are not.)
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« Reply #80 on: March 28, 2011, 10:58:50 pm »


Have you looked at Garrett's current district? It similarly arcs around the edge of the state. The changes to his district on my map are tiny, especially compared to what would have to be massive shifts of population to put him with Pascrell.




The existing map was drawn as a (successful) bipartisan gerrymander. This time around neither side is going to be willing to lose one of their guys, and if Rosenthal and company believe even half the stuff he's saying about compactness those yellow and purple districts won't exist in that form.

It's almost certainly going to be opposite party incumbents paired, imo.
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Verily
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« Reply #81 on: March 28, 2011, 11:04:05 pm »
« Edited: March 28, 2011, 11:05:45 pm by Verily »

Nobody believes anything they're saying about not gerrymandering. If they're worried about not shifting around tons of people, they're going to have to at least preserve the existing gerrymander, which is all I did. Anything they say about compactness is blowing smoke; they said the same things in 2000.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #82 on: March 28, 2011, 11:17:13 pm »

Nobody believes anything they're saying about not gerrymandering. If they're worried about not shifting around tons of people, they're going to have to at least preserve the existing gerrymander, which is all I did. Anything they say about compactness is blowing smoke; they said the same things in 2000.

Oh, I believe 11 out of 12 districts will be gerrymandered. I just don't believe that the 12th will combine the people you combined. Truthfully, though, you can do it much cleaner than it is now.

Garrett's district is only 60k or so short. Simply adding the rest of Sussex County and 20k votes in Bergen fills that district.

If this article is any indication, its not too difficult. Pallone's Monmouth base is dismantled and a new 6th is created in north Middlesex/South union County. That pushes the heavily underpopulated 9th and 10th into the 8th. That's where the population loss is.
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« Reply #83 on: April 03, 2011, 09:02:37 pm »

Oh, look, they did a something!  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703806304576241153016131650.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Can anyone find a copy of the map?
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« Reply #84 on: April 03, 2011, 10:48:16 pm »


Here is the link.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #85 on: April 04, 2011, 01:55:01 am »


I got all excited thinking they did a congressional map. This was already posted in the state legislature redistricting thread.
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« Reply #86 on: June 17, 2011, 12:12:08 pm »

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/06/nj_parties_pick_leaders_for_co.html

DEMOCRATS

In addition to Roberts, Democrats picked:

• Ed Farmer, a former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.)

• Phil Thigpen, the Essex County Democratic chairman

• Nilsa Cruz-Perez, a former assemblywoman from Camden County who also served on the legislative redistricting commission

• Jeannine LaRue, who served in former Gov. Jon Corzine’s administration

• Michael Baker, a former assemblyman from Middlesex County

REPUBLICANS

In addition to DuHaime, Republicans picked:

• Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande (R-Monmouth)

• Eric Jaso, an attorney from Morris County who worked as an assistant U.S. attorney under Christie

• Sue Sheppard, a former Cape May County freeholder

• Aubrey Fenton, a pastor and former Burlington County freeholder

• Sherine El-Abd, a Republican activist and former official at the Department of Community Affairs




About the only person of note is the Pascrell CoS. If he gets mashed with Rothman they're going to want to make sure Pascrell has the advantage.

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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #87 on: June 17, 2011, 12:56:36 pm »

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/06/nj_parties_pick_leaders_for_co.html

DEMOCRATS

In addition to Roberts, Democrats picked:

• Ed Farmer, a former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.)

• Phil Thigpen, the Essex County Democratic chairman

• Nilsa Cruz-Perez, a former assemblywoman from Camden County who also served on the legislative redistricting commission

• Jeannine LaRue, who served in former Gov. Jon Corzine’s administration

• Michael Baker, a former assemblyman from Middlesex County

REPUBLICANS

In addition to DuHaime, Republicans picked:

• Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande (R-Monmouth)

• Eric Jaso, an attorney from Morris County who worked as an assistant U.S. attorney under Christie

• Sue Sheppard, a former Cape May County freeholder

• Aubrey Fenton, a pastor and former Burlington County freeholder

• Sherine El-Abd, a Republican activist and former official at the Department of Community Affairs




About the only person of note is the Pascrell CoS. If he gets mashed with Rothman they're going to want to make sure Pascrell has the advantage.

But how? The only other places southern Bergen County can go would be one of the minority districts. I just don't see that happening. I think we can rule out a Frelinghuysen vs. Pascrell or Garrett vs. Pascrell matchup as well. I'm beginning to think the odds-on favorite is Holt vs. Lance.
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« Reply #88 on: June 17, 2011, 01:16:18 pm »

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/06/nj_parties_pick_leaders_for_co.html

DEMOCRATS

In addition to Roberts, Democrats picked:

• Ed Farmer, a former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.)

• Phil Thigpen, the Essex County Democratic chairman

• Nilsa Cruz-Perez, a former assemblywoman from Camden County who also served on the legislative redistricting commission

• Jeannine LaRue, who served in former Gov. Jon Corzine’s administration

• Michael Baker, a former assemblyman from Middlesex County

REPUBLICANS

In addition to DuHaime, Republicans picked:

• Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande (R-Monmouth)

• Eric Jaso, an attorney from Morris County who worked as an assistant U.S. attorney under Christie

• Sue Sheppard, a former Cape May County freeholder

• Aubrey Fenton, a pastor and former Burlington County freeholder

• Sherine El-Abd, a Republican activist and former official at the Department of Community Affairs




About the only person of note is the Pascrell CoS. If he gets mashed with Rothman they're going to want to make sure Pascrell has the advantage.

But how? The only other places southern Bergen County can go would be one of the minority districts. I just don't see that happening. I think we can rule out a Frelinghuysen vs. Pascrell or Garrett vs. Pascrell matchup as well. I'm beginning to think the odds-on favorite is Holt vs. Lance.

It's not easy to give Pascrell the advantage in any pairing, unfortunately for him, because the black district will likely be taking all of the Oranges. The most you can do is leave his base intact while cutting Fair Lawn, Saddle Brook, Englewood, and a couple other of Rothman's known areas out into the Garrett and the Sires district.

You'd still end up with something that is more South Bergen than South Passaic.

We'll be finding out who the 13th member is soon. Betting its not a university professor after the last round of shenanighans.
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« Reply #89 on: June 17, 2011, 02:43:43 pm »

Is there anyone on there who is going to stand up for Pallone? A former Dem legislator from Middlesex won't.
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« Reply #90 on: June 17, 2011, 03:22:59 pm »

Is there anyone on there who is going to stand up for Pallone? A former Dem legislator from Middlesex won't.

Nope, he tried to get his ally on the commission, and Wisniewski refused to oblige. It doesn't help that the 6th is probably the ugliest district on the map.
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« Reply #91 on: June 20, 2011, 02:50:18 pm »

Is there anyone on there who is going to stand up for Pallone? A former Dem legislator from Middlesex won't.

Nope, he tried to get his ally on the commission, and Wisniewski refused to oblige. It doesn't help that the 6th is probably the ugliest district on the map.

The 6th is drawn the way it is to accommodate Pallone specifically. His district is, essentially, the (urban) Middlesex County district with "communities of interest" in other counties attached. It snakes down into Monmouth County, but that's only because Pallone lives at the southern most tip of that ugly little tendril.

Ultimately, Pallone will be saved in redistricting by simple math. A district that is dominated by Middlesex County must exist. By virtue of containing the most Democratic areas of a Democratic county, it can't be a competitive district. If it can't be a competitive district, it can't be the scene of an I vs. I fight.

There are only two possibilities for New Jersey's I vs. I battle next year. Option one is for District 5 to be redrawn to become a Bergen-based district. This would pit Rothman and Garrett against each other -- two congressmen without many strong allies in their respective parties. Much of the western half of the current District 5 would be given to Lance to shore up that seat; a lot of Rothman's Democratic territory could be gobbled up by Sires and Pascrell.

Option two is for District 7 to be combined with 12 to pit Lance against Holt. Much of Lance's old State Senate district would be absorbed by Garrett to give him only the tiniest foothold in 12. The rest of the new district would take in a balanced mix of 7 and 12 heading east, keeping the Middlesex County parts of 7 that Lance would rather not be there and keeping the Monmouth County parts of 12 that Holt would rather not be there.

For map drawers, the latter is the most elegant solution because both Lance and Holt live fairly close to one another. There's no reason why the district needs to stretch all the way to the Atlantic, so it gives a lot more leeway for negotiation around other districts.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #92 on: June 20, 2011, 04:08:00 pm »

Ultimately, Pallone will be saved in redistricting by simple math. A district that is dominated by Middlesex County must exist. By virtue of containing the most Democratic areas of a Democratic county, it can't be a competitive district. If it can't be a competitive district, it can't be the scene of an I vs. I fight.

I'm not so sure. The Middlesex County-dominated district could be Holt's instead. Pallone's district could be carved up by Holt and Smith fairly easily.

There are only two possibilities for New Jersey's I vs. I battle next year. Option one is for District 5 to be redrawn to become a Bergen-based district. This would pit Rothman and Garrett against each other -- two congressmen without many strong allies in their respective parties. Much of the western half of the current District 5 would be given to Lance to shore up that seat; a lot of Rothman's Democratic territory could be gobbled up by Sires and Pascrell.

While it's easy to put Rothman in Garrett's district, I just don't see this happening. Garrett lives in Sussex County, so this configuration would still have to stretch from Pennsylvania to the Hudson River, and would be dominated by territory from Garrett's district. I don't think the Democrats on the redistricting commission would be too happy about that.

Option two is for District 7 to be combined with 12 to pit Lance against Holt. Much of Lance's old State Senate district would be absorbed by Garrett to give him only the tiniest foothold in 12. The rest of the new district would take in a balanced mix of 7 and 12 heading east, keeping the Middlesex County parts of 7 that Lance would rather not be there and keeping the Monmouth County parts of 12 that Holt would rather not be there.

For map drawers, the latter is the most elegant solution because both Lance and Holt live fairly close to one another. There's no reason why the district needs to stretch all the way to the Atlantic, so it gives a lot more leeway for negotiation around other districts.

I still think this is the most likely outcome, but this configuration would be very ugly indeed. I think a Holt vs. Lance district would keep each Congressman's base intact, and only go as far east as needed.  It would include all of Hunterdon County, the parts of Mercer County currently in the 12th, the parts of Somerset County currently in the 7th and 12th, and small parts of Union and Middlesex Counties. Such a district would be much more compact, much more easily justified by a community of interest standpoint, and (I think) much more capable of gaining bipartisan support.
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« Reply #93 on: June 20, 2011, 04:55:19 pm »
« Edited: June 20, 2011, 04:57:31 pm by krazen1211 »

Is there anyone on there who is going to stand up for Pallone? A former Dem legislator from Middlesex won't.

Nope, he tried to get his ally on the commission, and Wisniewski refused to oblige. It doesn't help that the 6th is probably the ugliest district on the map.

The 6th is drawn the way it is to accommodate Pallone specifically. His district is, essentially, the (urban) Middlesex County district with "communities of interest" in other counties attached. It snakes down into Monmouth County, but that's only because Pallone lives at the southern most tip of that ugly little tendril.

Ultimately, Pallone will be saved in redistricting by simple math. A district that is dominated by Middlesex County must exist. By virtue of containing the most Democratic areas of a Democratic county, it can't be a competitive district. If it can't be a competitive district, it can't be the scene of an I vs. I fight.

There are only two possibilities for New Jersey's I vs. I battle next year. Option one is for District 5 to be redrawn to become a Bergen-based district. This would pit Rothman and Garrett against each other -- two congressmen without many strong allies in their respective parties. Much of the western half of the current District 5 would be given to Lance to shore up that seat; a lot of Rothman's Democratic territory could be gobbled up by Sires and Pascrell.

Option two is for District 7 to be combined with 12 to pit Lance against Holt. Much of Lance's old State Senate district would be absorbed by Garrett to give him only the tiniest foothold in 12. The rest of the new district would take in a balanced mix of 7 and 12 heading east, keeping the Middlesex County parts of 7 that Lance would rather not be there and keeping the Monmouth County parts of 12 that Holt would rather not be there.

For map drawers, the latter is the most elegant solution because both Lance and Holt live fairly close to one another. There's no reason why the district needs to stretch all the way to the Atlantic, so it gives a lot more leeway for negotiation around other districts.

Garrett has a critical finance committee chairmanship in a state with a lot of Wall Street employees.

Pallone's district might be saved, but Pallone won't. The 4 southern districts need to push up about 200k people, and the only logical place is Monmouth County. He's lost his former base as is; Monmouth County has turned on him, and he has the Dem areas of the County.

The 7 + 12 matchup is a lot easier than that. Just combine Warren, Hunterdon, and portions of Somerset and Mercer Counties. The population just about lines up.

Monmouth County shouldn't be in that district at all. Nor should the Hispanic district really be stretching to Perth Amboy of course.
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Verily
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« Reply #94 on: June 20, 2011, 05:25:56 pm »

There's enough population in the Holt parts of Monmouth to up the populations of the southern districts (and no reason for them to be put anywhere but with Smith). No need to draw Pallone out of his seat.
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« Reply #95 on: June 20, 2011, 07:03:51 pm »

Ultimately, Pallone will be saved in redistricting by simple math. A district that is dominated by Middlesex County must exist. By virtue of containing the most Democratic areas of a Democratic county, it can't be a competitive district. If it can't be a competitive district, it can't be the scene of an I vs. I fight.

I'm not so sure. The Middlesex County-dominated district could be Holt's instead. Pallone's district could be carved up by Holt and Smith fairly easily.

But what does that solve? While it would be easy to eliminate Pallone, it'd be hard to eliminate Pallone in a way that serves both Democrats' and Republicans' best interests. I do think that Republicans will try to make Pallone more vulnerable via redistricting, though, and that Democrats may not try that hard to stop them. Christie wants Pallone to have to battle for his seat in 2012 (even in a token manner) so that he doesn't have a full war chest in 2013.

While it's easy to put Rothman in Garrett's district, I just don't see this happening. Garrett lives in Sussex County, so this configuration would still have to stretch from Pennsylvania to the Hudson River, and would be dominated by territory from Garrett's district. I don't think the Democrats on the redistricting commission would be too happy about that.

Oh, it doesn't have to be. Garrett lives in the very northern part of Sussex, a county with very little population anyway. By taking in just the top parts of Sussex and Passaic, you could easily create a district that's almost entirely dominated by Bergen. That would actually favor Democrats in a "fair fight" type district -- Garrett's base isn't in Bergen, while Rothman has been elected on a county-wide basis before.
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Verily
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« Reply #96 on: June 30, 2011, 12:22:22 pm »
« Edited: June 30, 2011, 05:42:03 pm by Verily »

Partisan data makes for gerrymandering fun!

Here's a Democratic gerrymander creating an 8-3-1 map (maybe could be 9-3 or 8-2-2 with more aggression). Municipal splits were generally avoided, although not minimized. There is a 51% black VAP seat and a 52% Hispanic VAP seat.

NJ-01 (Camden): 61-38 Obama, safe D (Andrews [D])
NJ-02 (Atlantic City): 53-46 Obama, toss-up (LoBiondo [R])
NJ-03 (Trenton): 61-38 Obama, safe D (Runyan [R], Smith [R])
NJ-04 (Toms River): 41-58 McCain, safe R (open)
NJ-05 (Wayne): 43-56 McCain, safe R (Garrett [R])
NJ-06 (Edison): 60-39 Obama, safe D (Pallone [D])
NJ-07 (New Brunswick): 60-39 Obama, safe D (Holt [D])
NJ-08 (Paterson): 64-35 Obama, safe D (Pascrell [D]) -- also narrowly minority-majority
NJ-09 (Hackensack): 61-39 Obama, safe D (Rothman [D])
NJ-10 (Newark): 83-16 Obama, safe D (Payne [D]) - 51% black VAP, 22% white, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian*
NJ-11 (Bridgewater): 42-57 McCain, safe R (Frelinghuysen [R], Lance [R])
NJ-12 (Jersey City): 69-30 Obama, safe D (Sires [D]) - 52% Hispanic VAP, 30% white, 7% black, 7% Asian**





*That's close to the maximal pack. There could be a couple of white areas in Union County dropped for some of the 20-30% black precincts left in Montclair, West Orange and Bloomfield, but that actually would not even increase it to 52% black VAP. All of Orange, East Orange and South Orange, as well as the black parts of Maplewood and Montclair and some mixed parts of West Orange are already in the seat.

**Pretty much the maximal pack without splitting any more municipalities.
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« Reply #97 on: June 30, 2011, 01:00:09 pm »
« Edited: June 30, 2011, 01:07:22 pm by krazen1211 »

There's enough population in the Holt parts of Monmouth to up the populations of the southern districts (and no reason for them to be put anywhere but with Smith). No need to draw Pallone out of his seat.


This time around, I have to figure they'll finally eliminate the needless Trenton split in CD-4, as well as potentially East Windsor; that's population that CD-4 will take from CD-6 in Monmouth, and CD-6 will pick up in Middlesex, making it a Middlesex County dominated district, as it should be. What Mr. Moderate said holds true.

Buono would be a solid candidate for a primary in that district.

You also flipped Pallone and Pascrell.
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« Reply #98 on: June 30, 2011, 03:43:16 pm »

Here's my evil GOP gerrymander:





NJ-1: Glassboro-Toms River. Open seat. Andrews could run here, but otherwise it's a Republican opportunity. 50.9% Obama, 50.3% Democratic average.
NJ-2: Vineland, Atlantic City, etc. LoBiondo is the incumbent. Takes in some Democratic areas and relies on the strength of LoBiondo's incumbency. 54.9% Obama, 53.3% Democratic average.
NJ-3: Cherry Hill, Lakewood, etc. Runyan is the incumbent. This seat could leave him vulnerable, as it trades some Democratic areas for other Democratic areas. 50.4% Obama, 52.7% Republican average.
NJ-4: Hamilton, East Brunswick, Middletown, etc. Smith is the incumbent. Takes in some Democratic areas and relies on the strength of Smith's incumbency. 52.0% Obama, 50.1% Democratic average.
NJ-5: Sussex, Wayne, Paramus, etc. Garrett is the incumbent. I was very picky about which Bergen County precincts went into this district. 55.7% McCain, 56.6% Republican average.
NJ-6: Asbury Park, Long Branch, New Brunswick, Plainfield, Elizabeth, Bayonne. Pallone is the incumbent. 64.4% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Only 47.3% VAP White.
NJ-7: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit, etc. Lance is the incumbent. 50.8% McCain (up from 48%), 54.3% Republican average.
NJ-8: Jersey City, Paterson, etc. Sires vs. Pascrell. I took a leaf out of Krazen's book and made this the Hispanic-majority seat. 77.3% Obama, 76.0% Democratic average, 53.8% VAP Hispanic.
NJ-9: Hackensack, Teaneck, Englewood, and a tendril extending into Passaic and Essex Counties. Rothman is the incumbent. 61.8% Obama, 62.2% Democratic average.
NJ-10: Newark, Irvington, East Orange, etc. Payne is the incumbent. 89.0% Obama, 85.5% Democratic average, 51.3% VAP Black.
NJ-11: Hackettstown, Morris County, etc. Frelinghuysen is the incumbent. Compensates for West Orange and Millburn by picking up Warren County. 54.1% McCain, 57.3% Republican average.
NJ-12: The crown jewel of this gerrymander, Piscataway, Somerville, Trenton, Burlington, Camden, etc. Andrews vs. Holt, although Andrews may opt to run in NJ-1 instead. 72.8% Obama, 67.6% Democratic average, 48.8% VAP White.
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« Reply #99 on: July 02, 2011, 11:17:21 am »

Is there election data for NJ on Daves Redistricting now or are these all add-ins?
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