U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey (user search)
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey (search mode)
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Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey  (Read 52601 times)
PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« on: January 15, 2011, 03:07:50 PM »

Mr. Moderate is right about 2, 36 and 38. 14 would have to be merged with parts of  30 (which has to shrink because its grown so much), to lean more GOP, theres simply too many public workers there now in the current district in the age of Christie. However, Christie could have a positive impact in other areas.

Currently, urban Northeastern New Jersey is probably about 150,000 short of needing all the districts that they have. My solution would be to drop the Plainfield area in with New Brunswick and Piscataway, thus reducing the preponderance of districts.

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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2011, 11:27:08 AM »

It totally makes sense for Belleville and Bloomfield to be split in two. Both towns have R-leaning, still Italian northern wards that are extensions of neighboring Nutley, and then minority-majority wards in their southern sections. Similar thing in Kearny in Hudson County.

I'm not sure Bill Pascrell would like having a district that is now concentrated in Woodbridge-Summit-Scotch Plains. Those towns are Obama-Christie swingers and while Pascrell might do well, why wouldn't a Democrat in that area want the seat? (Particularly after their decades of frustration of being represnted by Rinaldo, Franks, Ferguson and Lance). On the other hand, if Pascrell goes into Morris or Sussex his chances darken considerably.

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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2011, 01:01:29 PM »

Competitive but leans Republican.

Haven't drawn it out, but would it make any sense to give Pascrell white-majority but still Democratic leaning enclaves in Hudson like Bayonne, Hoboken and parts of Jersey City?

I have to guess a GOP plan puts Rothman and Pascrell, or Rothman and Sires together.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2011, 02:12:06 PM »

One scenario on a Republican map could be for Sires (who is pretty far north in Hudson) to absorb some real-estate in the Meadowlands and the Palisades communities and go into heavily  minority and Democratic Hackensack (which is very similarly demograhically and economically to much of his current district). Pascrell could take remaining D-leaning Territory in Bergen, with Garrett absorbing Fair Lawn (which is only marginally Democratic AND only voted 5100 to 4100 for hometown son Rothman in 2010,), as well as GOP leaning Saddle Brook. Considering Garrett won this past election 65-35, even a little bit of boost for Rothman in the Bergen parts of a new NJ-5 would not be enough to overcome Garrett's strong base.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2011, 03:34:38 PM »

Verily is right about Rothman being from Englewood, but still surprising were his numbers in Fair Lawn this time (though it is not a particularly strong town for Pres. Obama). I think Hudson will come in around 620k in population, so even if Sires got all of Hudson it needs to pick up 112k somewhere. Conventionally, there would be incursions into North Newark and Elizabeth, but they could decide to send him a little north. In turn, they could Pallone some precincts along the Arthur Kill in Linden and Elizabeth.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2011, 11:17:21 AM »

Is there election data for NJ on Daves Redistricting now or are these all add-ins?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2011, 06:16:17 PM »

First commission meeting next week. Thoughts?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2011, 11:25:07 AM »

With all the Turner excitement, NJ seems to be getting overlooked. Do we see R vs. D R vs. R or D vs. D? Will they try to draw a new coalition or Hispanic influence seat?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2011, 02:18:17 PM »

So is Rothman in trouble with no commission allies and the recent re-ascendance of the Bergen GOP?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2011, 03:52:24 PM »

NyJew is right. The Orthodox move into Lakewood made it the fastest-growing city in the state and McCain's best. Also factor lots of Staten Island and North Jersey white ethnics moving in and you see not only strength for GOP state and federal candidates but also landslides for Chris Smith.

Another question is whether Pallones Monmouth leg gets swallowed, but maybe an open seat with parts of Union, Middlesex and maybe a little bit of Hudson is created for him. Also will Payne representing the lion's share of mostly Latino Elizabeth continue?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2011, 10:37:50 AM »

A couple of  hints that Pallone has to watch his back:

1. Albio Sires said that he thinks he will have more of Middlesex. That is an interesting comment since besides Perth Amboy, the only big Hispanic area is New Brunswick  which is the heart of Pallone's base.

2. Pollster and Professor Patrick Murray, who has an inside line to the Democratic establishment, testified about how gerrymandered Pallone's district is. This means the Democrats realize that the current district is untenable.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2011, 01:11:03 PM »

Muon,
I looked into a map like this as well. I preserved a black majority district, with one Paterson-North Hudson district and one Central Hudson-New Brunswick district both in the 40s for Latinos. South Belleville, North Newark and most of Elizabeth were in the latter. I like that your second one also connects the South Asian vote in Jersey City and Edison/Woodbridge.  What is the Asian VAP in your new "7th"?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2011, 12:00:37 PM »

Did you move all of Elizabeth out of Payne as well?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2011, 06:41:34 PM »

I see the VRA still being the law of the land. A fair map reflects the VRA. I do not understand the obsession with not splitting municipalities.

My map is here:

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1196/new-jersey-redistricting-plan
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2011, 03:31:41 PM »

Yes there is. Newark has a distinctly white/Latino North and East Ward (Hispanic district) and three largely black wards (Payne). These constituents have differing concerns. Jersey City has one and a half black wards and four and half Asian-Latino-White wards. Moreover, if you drive thru North Newark or the Ironbound its more like Hudson County than the rest of Newark, so that part should be in Pascrell or Sires and not Payne. Other communities have similar divides.

Verily did you mean 2000 or 2010 numbers?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2011, 10:43:53 AM »

I disagree. I think districts should focus more on similar kinds of neighborhoods and cultural ties rather than municipal lines. The Ironbound culturally is similar to Hudson County, as are sections of Elizabeth. Thus the Hispanic VRA district, with its large white ethnic population, makes sense.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2011, 08:56:19 AM »

Anyone think there could be a John Olver style retirement in Jersey?
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2011, 11:02:24 PM »

White Smoke? Maybe:
http://www.politickernj.com/52980/speculation-heavy-redistricting-deadline-looms
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2011, 01:37:38 PM »

Depends hows it drawn. I think Garrett needs at least an R +1 or R+2. Also his dissenting towns (Glen Rock, Ridgewood, Tenafly and Bergenfield) would have somewhere to go with Rothman. However I think Garretts base in the Northwest will come out big against Obama and Rothman. This will be a good one.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2011, 11:06:05 AM »

The only way I see a "Fair Fight" district emerging is to extend Freylinghuysen north and east through Wayne into Bergen so he absorbs some Bergen Republicans. Basically NW Bergen is cut out and thrown into the new 11th which would have more of suburban Essex as well as Totowa, Little Falls and Woodland Park. It also means Pascrell's new district would be at least 45% from Rothman in South Bergen. Pascrell could represent these people but would Rothman pick the district with right-wing voters in Sussex or potentially piss off the party with a Pascrell primary? The Rothman Garrett district sounds somewhat polarized but it would be extremely interesting.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2011, 01:05:27 PM »

You have a point about the 8th though it could easily take in the Meadowlands or West Essex and still be compact.

Unbelievable how far ahead Pascrell runs ahead of the national Democratic ticket usually. Hence why the GOP probably shouldn't allow him to go against Garrett.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #21 on: December 07, 2011, 04:35:09 PM »

That would probably make it D+6. But Pascrell wouldve still gotten about 57% in 2010 considering his performance in a D+10.

Intreresting that you can draw Rodney all the way to the 3rd Ward of Kearny and keep him at 53% McCain if you have the other Republicans absorb Dover and Morristown. Shows that a lot of suburban Essex and Passaic is still pretty conservative.
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PulaskiSkywayDriver
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2011, 08:02:41 PM »

Rothman I dont think was elected, I think he was a judge.

They say the map will be released tonight or tomorrow. I get the feeling that a tighter ship is being run here than with the legislative redistricting but some bitterness that Pascrell refuses to retire and may end up forcing the younger Rothman into a tough race.
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