U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois
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  U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois
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Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois  (Read 49813 times)
DrScholl
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« Reply #100 on: May 19, 2011, 05:03:47 PM »

According to Cook Political Report

http://www.cookpolitical.com/

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ill ind
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« Reply #101 on: May 19, 2011, 05:31:34 PM »

  A draft State Senate map (that tosses the GOP minority leader into the same district as another freshman GOp member) was released today.  We are still waiting on the State Assembly (2 districts nested in each State Senate District) and the Congressional map.

Ill Ind
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #102 on: May 20, 2011, 08:55:53 AM »

According to Cook Political Report

http://www.cookpolitical.com/

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #103 on: May 22, 2011, 11:00:19 AM »

I'm not sure that smilie is appropriate. Tongue
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #104 on: May 22, 2011, 01:56:28 PM »

I'm not sure that smilie is appropriate. Tongue

Why not?  Is there a significant difference between Smiley and Cheesy or do you mean that I shouldn't be happy that the Democrats are actually poised to have a redistricting success?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #105 on: May 23, 2011, 11:03:31 AM »

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #106 on: May 23, 2011, 11:19:08 AM »

Do either of those actually influence the creation of new maps (outside of a commission or other nonpartisan system)? All of the public hearings here in Virginia didn't do squat.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #107 on: May 23, 2011, 11:20:32 AM »

If they don't (at all), I wouldn't count them as "real" debate/public input.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #108 on: May 23, 2011, 11:28:32 AM »

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #109 on: May 23, 2011, 11:37:27 AM »

Yah, obviously I'm not saying they mustn't. Just that it's nothing to write home to mom about.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #110 on: May 23, 2011, 01:02:43 PM »

Yah, obviously I'm not saying they mustn't. Just that it's nothing to write home to mom about.

Fair enough
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DrScholl
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« Reply #111 on: May 27, 2011, 09:04:33 AM »

And we have a map

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=http:%2F%2Fcapitolfax.com%2Fsb1178-congressional.kmz&aq=&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=56.637293,69.169922&ie=UTF8&z=7
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krazen1211
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« Reply #112 on: May 27, 2011, 09:14:54 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2011, 10:50:29 AM by krazen1211 »

1. Bloomington/Decatur/Springfield/Champaign  quad cities district created.

2. Peoria and Rockford added to the Schilling district.

3. CD-12 is left as barely Dem.

4. Joliet/Aurora/Bollingbrook district created. Probably upper 50s Obama.

5. Elgin/Elk Grove/Schaumberg district created. Probably also upper 50s Obama.

6. Dold is about the same.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #113 on: May 27, 2011, 09:47:20 AM »

Krazen, the "quad cities" term applies to Davenport/Moline/Rock Island/Bettendorf on the IL/IA border, not Springfield etc.  Schilling's district is the quad cities district, in other words. 

Lipinski's and Costello's districts look pretty narrowly D to me, just eyeballing it, though they'll probably be safe with the current incumbents.  The green district is also not particularly Dem. 

So 8 Dem incumbents, plus Schilling's district (I assume) and the Joliet/Aurora district for 10.  5 solid GOP (from S to N, blue (Shimkus) brown (Schock) orange (Manzullo) purple (Hultgren/Walsh) red (Roskam)).  3 swingy: green downstate cities district (though I'm guessing Johnson can hold this for the GOP), the green suburban district, and Dold's district...?  Biggert is put into Quigley's district and Kinzinger is swamped by Jackson. 
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Verily
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« Reply #114 on: May 27, 2011, 10:09:40 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2011, 10:11:18 AM by Verily »

Not sure why they didn't work DeKalb into a Dem district. Same with Danville, although that one makes a little more sense.

Quigley's district is not nearly as marginal as it looks, at least D+8 or so. Remember it has a bunch of heavily Hispanic areas around Midway, and even Lockport is only around 51% McCain.

Also, the green suburban district is a very impressive gerrymander, around 61% Obama on my calculations using DRA. It will elect a Democrat. There are a couple of places where it's less efficient than it could be; I could squeeze another Obama point or two out without disturbing other Democratic seats. But they did a very impressive job nonetheless.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #115 on: May 27, 2011, 10:12:38 AM »

Hmm, thanks. I didn't think there was any specific historical significance to the term; and that it was only called the quad cities district because, well, it has 4 cities in it.

I believe its only 55% Obama, though. Probably enough to make Johnson sweat a bit but that's it. The Costello district is the same.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #116 on: May 27, 2011, 10:16:07 AM »

Drawing it in DRA now, as best I can...

IL-10 goes from 61% Obama to ~63% Obama.
IL-12 goes up a point from 54% to 55% Obama.
IL-15 goes from 50% McCain to 54% Obama.
IL-16 goes from 53% Obama to about 50% Obama.
IL-17 goes from 56% Obama to about 59-60% Obama - Schock and Schilling are both in this district.
IL-18 goes from 50% McCain to 54% McCain.
IL-19 renumbered to IL-13 is 56% McCain, up from 54% McCain. - Shimkus and Johnson are both in this district.

Not sure where Kinzinger lives; somewhere in McLean County, I presume, but it's split between IL-13 and IL-18.

I'm going crosseyed, I'll try to do the rest later.
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Franzl
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« Reply #117 on: May 27, 2011, 10:21:46 AM »

Looks like our idiot Costello will be fine.
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Verily
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« Reply #118 on: May 27, 2011, 10:27:31 AM »

Lipinski's district is a little weird; he's down to about D+5, but it definitely could be more; they seem to have marooned some overwhelmingly Hispanic precincts in IL-01 for no discernable reason, precincts that could be used to shore up Lipinski instead (while putting suburban areas in IL-01; we're talking precincts that are 90% Hispanic and 2% black, so it's not like the suburbs are any less black than they are).
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dpmapper
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« Reply #119 on: May 27, 2011, 10:34:14 AM »

Lipinski's district is a little weird; he's down to about D+5, but it definitely could be more; they seem to have marooned some overwhelmingly Hispanic precincts in IL-01 for no discernable reason, precincts that could be used to shore up Lipinski instead (while putting suburban areas in IL-01; we're talking precincts that are 90% Hispanic and 2% black, so it's not like the suburbs are any less black than they are).

How much Obama home-state discount are you applying when you say D+5? 
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Verily
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« Reply #120 on: May 27, 2011, 10:47:08 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2011, 10:52:13 AM by Verily »

I'm saying it was 58-40 Obama. (That said, Obama didn't overperform in Lipinski's district the way he did elsewhere in Illinois, which is not a huge surprise given how racist the Polish vote often is.)

Obama did 5 points better than Kerry in Lipinski's old seat, so assuming the same here, it's still a 53% Kerry seat, which is more Democratic than all but one or two Republican-held seats. And Lipinski is way more popular than the national Democrats there.
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« Reply #121 on: May 27, 2011, 10:57:07 AM »

Kinzinger lives in IL-02, LOL. He could move and run in IL-16 but he's going to have primary opposition.

Give Lipinski too Dem of a seat and he likely gets primaried, so I guess his people in the legislature are looking out for him.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #122 on: May 27, 2011, 11:00:24 AM »

Also, the green suburban district is a very impressive gerrymander, around 61% Obama on my calculations using DRA. It will elect a Democrat. There are a couple of places where it's less efficient than it could be; I could squeeze another Obama point or two out without disturbing other Democratic seats. But they did a very impressive job nonetheless.

Pretty well drawn. They probably placed the 1 guy who can win that seat (Roskam) outside it as he would take the inner vote sink. Walsh I think by residence would go for the outer vote sink.

Biggert would it looks like have to kamikaze Lipinski or retire. Kinzinger after his 2010 performance might try for the Joliet-Aurora district, and Hultgren has to figure out what he wants to do.
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« Reply #123 on: May 27, 2011, 11:16:48 AM »

I like how IL-17 in a gerrymander became far less erose and all. LOL.

IL-17 is actually a seat that probably could've been left alone, Hare was a weak incumbent, and Schilling is a good pick for the Republican Alan Grayson, someone who got elected in a seat they don't fit ideologically at all by fluke and would go down hard the next election. I don't see Schilling running ahead of Obama's opponent even in Illinois unless the Republican candidate is a crazy in which case he's doomed anyway. But it can't hurt to take the Dem voters in Peoria to prevent another Hare-esque defeat.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #124 on: May 27, 2011, 11:19:30 AM »

Lipinski's district is a little weird; he's down to about D+5, but it definitely could be more; they seem to have marooned some overwhelmingly Hispanic precincts in IL-01 for no discernable reason, precincts that could be used to shore up Lipinski instead (while putting suburban areas in IL-01; we're talking precincts that are 90% Hispanic and 2% black, so it's not like the suburbs are any less black than they are).

The obvious answer is to protect him from a primary challenge from a liberal and/or Hispanic Democrat.
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