U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[Meeker]

Fantastic!

[Verily]

I'm sure the residents of fast-growing exurban areas like New Lenox are going to love being represented by racist nutter Bobby Rush in IL-01.   They have little in common with the inner city Chicago ghetto that makes up about 55% of the district.  The city portion of IL-01 is 86% black.  The suburban and exurban parts of that district are 71% white.   The Will County exurban portion is only 2% black.  The district is about 53% black.

Given rates of exurban growth and black flight from Chicago, it might be possible that the district becomes majority suburban by the end of the decade.  That hasn't hurt Jesse Jackson Junior from getting reelected in IL-02, though - but the suburban areas in his district are more black than those in IL-01.

The district may become majority suburban, but the Democratic primary vote in the district would not. Similarly, the district could be 40% black and still have a majority of Democratic primary voters be black.

[Sbane]

I don't think anyone's figured that out yet, since it requires a lot of number-crunching, rather than just drawing the map in DRA.

I ask because it's probably the more relevant figure.  Someone will figure it out, eventually.

Do you think those 60% Obama districts will become Bush districts? I don't think that would happen even in suburban Chicago.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm sure the residents of fast-growing exurban areas like New Lenox are going to love being represented by racist nutter Bobby Rush in IL-01.   They have little in common with the inner city Chicago ghetto that makes up about 55% of the district.  The city portion of IL-01 is 86% black.  The suburban and exurban parts of that district are 71% white.   The Will County exurban portion is only 2% black.  The district is about 53% black.

Given rates of exurban growth and black flight from Chicago, it might be possible that the district becomes majority suburban by the end of the decade.  That hasn't hurt Jesse Jackson Junior from getting reelected in IL-02, though - but the suburban areas in his district are more black than those in IL-01.

If they don't like it they can vote against him. We'll see how far that goes.

[Sam Spade]

I don't think anyone's figured that out yet, since it requires a lot of number-crunching, rather than just drawing the map in DRA.

I ask because it's probably the more relevant figure.  Someone will figure it out, eventually.

Do you think those 60% Obama districts will become Bush districts? I don't think that would happen even in suburban Chicago.

I doubt it.  I just would like the numbers because, as I said, they are probably more relevant.

[DrScholl]

It's not exact, but for the suburban districts, I subtract 6-7% from Obama's total and that probably brings it down to where the numbers were in 2004. Of course, not all swing is uniform, but it can give you a slight idea.

[krazen1211]

I don't think anyone's figured that out yet, since it requires a lot of number-crunching, rather than just drawing the map in DRA.

I ask because it's probably the more relevant figure.  Someone will figure it out, eventually.

Do you think those 60% Obama districts will become Bush districts? I don't think that would happen even in suburban Chicago.

It would line up right. Lake County swung 11%, McHenry about 13%, and Dupage 10%.

[timothyinMD]

Def the most disgraceful map yet.  Not a surprise

[Sbane]

Def the most disgraceful map yet.  Not a surprise

LOL seriously? And what Republicans do is perfectly fine, huh? Seriously this is like one Dem gerrymander that will happen this time around. The rest of the map's around the country are going to be Dem packs.

[Sbane]

I don't think anyone's figured that out yet, since it requires a lot of number-crunching, rather than just drawing the map in DRA.

I ask because it's probably the more relevant figure.  Someone will figure it out, eventually.

Do you think those 60% Obama districts will become Bush districts? I don't think that would happen even in suburban Chicago.

It would line up right. Lake County swung 11%, McHenry about 13%, and Dupage 10%.

It's within the realm of possibility. Certainly would be interesting to look at the Bush numbers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The current Dold seat is 60% Obama and it was like 52% Kerry.

[Brittain33]

People, don't take the bait this time--keep it to discussing Illinois. Thx

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Atkinson lives in Burr Ridge, which is right on the edge of the new IL-11. He now has to choose between running against Bill Foster (who just announced) or Dan Lipinski. Don Manzullo's going to have a bit of a headache on his hands, with Kinzinger and possibly Walsh running in IL-16.

[cinyc]

What are the Bush 2004 numbers in the respective districts?

That's not as easy to calculate as you think.  Illinois' cities and counties are responsible for running elections and reporting results, and their 2004 election reporting is far from uniform.  Some very important, highly Gerrymandered counties - Will (6 CDs) and Madison (3 CDs) - don't make township-level results available on their websites, let alone the precinct-level results that would be necessary to get accurate 2004 numbers given the very high level of Gerrymandering.  Even the Atlas doesn't have that data.  Short of calling up or visiting the relevant county officials to get the precinct canvass books (assuming they exist), it is not possible to get anything but an estimate.

And that's before having to track down any change in precinct boundaries from 2004 to 2010.

[timothyinMD]

What I support is common sense redistricting that respects communities and are derived from natural boundaries.

The problem YOU LIBERALS have is that if that were to happen across the board, you all would be relegated to a minority of 70-90% Democrat seats, while we would have a majority with seats that were 50-70% Republican.  Sorry guys-- not our fault democrats are crowded into a small number of districts.

The Missouri map could have been a little tidier but the outcome would have been the same.
Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma look good.  I hate Louisiana but we were forced to gerrymander it by an archaic racism statute

[minionofmidas]

The Missouri map could have been a little tidier but the outcome would have been the same.

...insofar that Carnahan would have been out of a job, or at least have to move. Of course, in any remotely cleanish map so would have been Hartzler (losing a primary to Luetkemeyer, with a new Republican from North Missouri) and  Akin (losing the general election to a Democrat, possibly Carnahan), but that's a minor trifle, right?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What I support is common sense redistricting that respects communities and are derived from natural boundaries.

Like the proposed Michigan map?

[krazen1211]

What I support is common sense redistricting that respects communities and are derived from natural boundaries.

The problem YOU LIBERALS have is that if that were to happen across the board, you all would be relegated to a minority of 70-90% Democrat seats, while we would have a majority with seats that were 50-70% Republican.  Sorry guys-- not our fault democrats are crowded into a small number of districts.

The Missouri map could have been a little tidier but the outcome would have been the same.
Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma look good.  I hate Louisiana but we were forced to gerrymander it by an archaic racism statute

Yep. Didn't the Democrats take Will County and split it 6 ways?

Under common sense districting Detroit, minus the Hispanic part, would have been shoved into its own district. The law creates a pair of artificially ugly districts rather than 2 that maintain communities of interest.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A good, safe Dem gerrymander. This map should create some very interesting races, both in the primary and the general. The Dold race will be especially interesting to watch if he indeed runs for re-election.

[Lunar]

Imagine if Bill Brady were governor, Dems could have been stuck with an incumbent protection map

[cinyc]

I'm sure the residents of fast-growing exurban areas like New Lenox are going to love being represented by racist nutter Bobby Rush in IL-01.   They have little in common with the inner city Chicago ghetto that makes up about 55% of the district.  The city portion of IL-01 is 86% black.  The suburban and exurban parts of that district are 71% white.   The Will County exurban portion is only 2% black.  The district is about 53% black.

Given rates of exurban growth and black flight from Chicago, it might be possible that the district becomes majority suburban by the end of the decade.  That hasn't hurt Jesse Jackson Junior from getting reelected in IL-02, though - but the suburban areas in his district are more black than those in IL-01.

The district may become majority suburban, but the Democratic primary vote in the district would not. Similarly, the district could be 40% black and still have a majority of Democratic primary voters be black.

Last I checked, Illinois' primaries are quasi-open.  Anyone can vote in them, but which primary you vote in goes on the record.  

If enough suburbanites understand that the only way to get rid of racist nutter Bobby Rush is in a Democratic primary, those who otherwise think of themselves as Republican or independent could theoretically vote against him in a Democratic primary if/when the IL-01 balance tips to the suburbs.  Likely?  Probably not - but one can dream of a former Black Panther getting kicked to the curb due to too-cute-by-half racial Gerrymandering gone wrong, can't they?

[Lunar]

Cinyc -- wouldn't they have to forgo the rest of the Republican primary ballot though? I have a feeling far more voters would be interested in, say, the Republican presidential race primary (2012) or the Republican governor primary (2014) , than voting Democratic in some scheme

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rush is a fossil of the 60's. But as far as I know he has the good sense to keep a low profile, unlike some other nutters (Steve King, Bachmann, Foxx).

[ill ind]

  Well, since the GOP will have a presidential primary, and the Dems will not--and also because there are no statewide offices on the ballot in 2012, I don't see a whole lot of GOP primary voters crossing over and voting against Rush in the Dem primary.  If anything, Dems will cross over and vote in the GOP primary.
  I agree--even as an Illinoisan--with liberal tendancies--that Rush can be a total embarrassment.  However the way the district is drawn, there is more than enough of Chicago in there that I'd be suprised if he falls below 70% in a general election.

Ill_Ind

[Brittain33]

I'm sure I dig hard enough I can find posts by Cinyc expressing outrage at the perhaps millions of African American Democrats in the South stranded in 60-65% McCain districts represented by Republicans who don't give a damn if their record and words alienate every single one of them.

Unless he thinks the white voters of Crete, Illinois are more important and worthy of concern, but that can't be true.