U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[cinyc]

 Well, since the GOP will have a presidential primary, and the Dems will not--and also because there are no statewide offices on the ballot in 2012, I don't see a whole lot of GOP primary voters crossing over and voting against Rush in the Dem primary.  If anything, Dems will cross over and vote in the GOP primary.
  I agree--even as an Illinoisan--with liberal tendancies--that Rush can be a total embarrassment.  However the way the district is drawn, there is more than enough of Chicago in there that I'd be suprised if he falls below 70% in a general election.

Ill_Ind

I wasn't talking about a general election or even 2012.  I think the first necessary condition for Rush to fall in a Democratic primary would be the suburban and exurban part of IL-01 becoming more populous than the Chicago part - and that's not going to happen until 2014 at the earliest, and, more likely, 2016, as the population of New Lenox and environs explodes while Chicago's black flight continues.  It is certainly possible that there will be no major Republican primary in 2014 or, even more likely, 2016 if a Republican wins the White House in 2012 - assuming Illinois Republicans can get their act together, back one gubernatorial candidate and/or not primary Kirk.

I'm sure I dig hard enough I can find posts by Cinyc expressing outrage at the perhaps millions of African American Democrats in the South stranded in 60-65% McCain districts represented by Republicans who don't give a damn if their record and words alienate every single one of them.

Unless he thinks the white voters of Crete, Illinois are more important and worthy of concern, but that can't be true.

You are confusing asking a question with outrage or concern.  There is nothing inherently outrageous about the Illinois map or packing IL-01 with white suburbanites who supposedly will never be able to elect their preferred candidate in a primary, let alone the general election.  It is what it is.  The legitimate question is whether mappers have cut things too close by packing the district with exurbanites instead of Chicagoans, who would be more likely to vote for a Chicago machine candidate like Rush.   The dictates of the Voting Rights Act notwithstanding, geography does matter.

[ill ind]

  Ill district 1 total population 712,813

Portion that was in the old (2000 iteration) 1st district  534,910

Portion that came from Former CD 11--(New Lenox and Frankfort--Will County--95,983

It's going to be alot later than 2014 or 2016 before the exurbs are going to swamp out the Chicago portion of Rush's district.  Believe me,neither  Bobby Rush nor any of the other African American congressmen would have signed off on that map if their future elections weren't guaranteed.

Ill_Ind

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If we can get back to actual redistricting commentary, the state House has reportedly passed the map with a slight alteration to the 13th district (the Springfield-Champaign-Urbana district).

[Lunar]

If we can get back to actual redistricting commentary, the state House has reportedly passed the map with a slight alteration to the 13th district (the Springfield-Champaign-Urbana district).

Does it impact any other district? Otherwise it must have been VERY slight.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If we can get back to actual redistricting commentary, the state House has reportedly passed the map with a slight alteration to the 13th district (the Springfield-Champaign-Urbana district).

Does it impact any other district? Otherwise it must have been VERY slight.

The only changes were to fiddle with the borders around Champaign-Urbana and Collinsville to put Shimkus into the vote sink 15th and Johnson into the swing district 13th, and it also adjusts the finger into Springfield; it juts in from the south rather than hooking around from the north.

Here are the new maps.

[cinyc]

 Ill district 1 total population 712,813

Portion that was in the old (2000 iteration) 1st district  534,910

Portion that came from Former CD 11--(New Lenox and Frankfort--Will County--95,983

It's going to be alot later than 2014 or 2016 before the exurbs are going to swamp out the Chicago portion of Rush's district.  Believe me,neither  Bobby Rush nor any of the other African American congressmen would have signed off on that map if their future elections weren't guaranteed.

Ill_Ind

I said suburbs AND exurbs, not just exurbs.  Only 55% of the proposed IL-01 is inside the city limits of Chicago.  The rest is in suburban Cook County (31%) or exurban Will County (14%).   

Inner-city Chicago is losing population due to black flight.  The portion of Will County near New Lenox will likely be one of the fastest growing areas of Will County if not the state once the economy picks up, thanks in part to the fairly recent completion of the I-355 South Extension and the fact that that's where the open land is.  Given that, simple math should tell you that the Chicago part of the district will likely be less than a majority of it by the end of the decade.  Maybe by 2014, perhaps by 2016, but I'd be willing to bet for sure by the 2020 census.  Whether that matters politically is a different issue - Rush is a Democrat and IL-01 will still be heavily Democratic by the end of the decade.  But the Chicagoland demographic shifts are pretty clear.

[Lief 🗽]

This chart, courtesy of Daily Kos Elections, is pretty nifty:



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/05/29/980375/-Illinois-Redistricting:-Redistmas-better-than-expected?via=blog_542760

[Brittain33]

You are confusing asking a question with outrage or concern.

Ok. I'm sorry for applying the wrong motivation here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DKE crunched the new district numbers for 2010 (including the Treasurer race, for some reason):

IL-01 - 71.4 Quinn, 22.0 Brady; 72.8 Alexi, 23.5 Kirk
IL-02 - 71.5 Quinn, 21.4 Brady; 73.7 Alexi, 22.6 Kirk
IL-03 - 47.5 Quinn, 44.1 Brady; 48.4 Kirk, 46.0 Alexi
IL-04 - 67.4 Quinn, 23.1 Brady; 69.1 Alexi, 24.8 Kirk
IL-05 - 55.5 Quinn, 36.4 Brady; 54.9 Alexi, 40.2 Kirk
IL-06 - 58.3 Brady, 34.9 Quinn; 61.7 Kirk, 33.3 Alexi
IL-07 - 79.4 Quinn, 14.9 Brady; 80.6 Alexi, 16.4 Kirk
IL-08 - 48.1 Brady, 43.6 Quinn; 51.1 Kirk, 43.1 Alexi
IL-09 - 56.2 Quinn, 37.4 Brady; 53.5 Alexi, 42.7 Kirk
IL-10 - 46.8 Quinn, 46.1 Brady; 53.7 Kirk, 42.2 Alexi
IL-11 - 46.8 Brady, 45.1 Quinn; 49.0 Kirk, 45.3 Alexi
IL-12 - 49.7 Brady, 43.9 Quinn; 51.1 Kirk, 42.8 Alexi
IL-13 - 55.8 Brady, 37.2 Quinn; 55.0 Kirk, 38.0 Alexi
IL-14 - 57.9 Brady, 33.6 Quinn; 60.5 Kirk, 32.7 Alexi
IL-15 - 67.4 Brady, 26.6 Quinn; 67.1 Kirk, 26.4 Alexi
IL-16 - 59.0 Brady, 32.3 Quinn; 60.1 Kirk, 31.9 Alexi
IL-17 - 53.7 Brady, 38.9 Quinn; 54.1 Kirk, 38.6 Alexi
IL-18 - 66.6 Brady, 26.6 Quinn; 66.6 Kirk, 26.6 Alexi

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The map has passed the Senate, so it's on its way to Quinn's desk.

[krazen1211]

Kerry Bush numbers.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_131/-206079-1.html

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), who was elected by a slim 2-point margin in November, received 51 percent, 54 percent and 49 percent in the 8th, 10th and 11th districts, respectively, according to the data.

In 2004, then-President George W. Bush received 49 percent of the vote in the 8th, 46 percent in the 10th district and 49 percent in the 11th district.



As I suspected, no reason at all for 8 and 11 to be automatically gone.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They're not super-safe districts, but after their best year in a generation, Republicans only hold 12 districts that went 49% or less for Bush. Add to that the fact that several of the districts are probably not going to have an incumbent running in them and Obama will be winning them with double-digit margins, and you've got a problem.

[cinyc]

Kerry Bush numbers.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_131/-206079-1.html

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), who was elected by a slim 2-point margin in November, received 51 percent, 54 percent and 49 percent in the 8th, 10th and 11th districts, respectively, according to the data.

In 2004, then-President George W. Bush received 49 percent of the vote in the 8th, 46 percent in the 10th district and 49 percent in the 11th district.



As I suspected, no reason at all for 8 and 11 to be automatically gone.

I spent a good part of the holiday weekend trying to crunch the Kerry-Bush numbers myself, and then ran into the substantial roadblock of (among others) Cook County and Chicago consolidating precincts since 2004, making direct comparisons impossible without finding the 2004 maps (which aren't on the Internet) or devising another workaround.  But 54-46% for Kerry-Bush IL-10 sounds about right.  I had Kerry with 53.9% of the vote, with definite errors.  

FWIW, I also have the Lake and Cook portions of IL-06 at 39.5% Kerry - but I stopped crunching the numbers after running into the geographical border conundrum.

[muon2]

Here's what I have for '04 (Kerry/Bush), '08 (Obama/McCain), and PVI for each district.

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10

[cinyc]

Here's what I have for '04 (Kerry/Bush), '08 (Obama/McCain), and PVI for each district.

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10

Thanks! 

So IL-10 goes from D+6 to D+8, while IL-03 goes from D+11 to only D+5. Do the mappers hate Lipinski or did they (more likely) run out of Democratic-leaning areas to give him?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Do the mappers hate Lipinski or did they (more likely) run out of Democratic-leaning areas to give him?

As was said previously, the move makes the seat safer for Lipinski in a primary, not for Democrats in a general.

[Lunar]

And he's more worried about the primary with a well-funded opponent already announcing his  intentions and his weird healthcare switcheroo vote to the negative.  

It's a machine Democratic area (kinda blue collar, so Lipinski plays well in the general), so I'm not sure how the primary would even manifest itself  if one were to still emerge.

[krazen1211]

Ah, what could have been. This would be glorious; rest of the state is 53/45. I cut the Davis district and created a new 42% Hispanic district; Jackson and Rush are bumped up to 65% or so.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Greg Giroux reports that Quinn has signed the Congressional map into law.

[muon2]

Greg Giroux reports that Quinn has signed the Congressional map into law.

Now that it is law the GOP delegation officially announced that a lawsuit will be forthcoming. I expect that it will be about Latino representation.

[BigSkyBob]

Greg Giroux reports that Quinn has signed the Congressional map into law.

Now that it is law the GOP delegation officially announced that a lawsuit will be forthcoming. I expect that it will be about Latino representation.

I suppose it will be about the lack of Latino representation.

[krazen1211]

Greg Giroux reports that Quinn has signed the Congressional map into law.

Now that it is law the GOP delegation officially announced that a lawsuit will be forthcoming. I expect that it will be about Latino representation.

I suppose it will be about the lack of Latino representation.

Yep. By contrast, Texas is increasing Latino representation.

http://www.kutnews.org/post/castro-take-doggett-new-congressional-seat

Castro To Take On Doggett for New Congressional Seat

[DrScholl]

It's not possible to make another 50%+ VAP Hispanic district in Illinois, one with just a plurality would never be ordered by any court, it's already clear about how the court views those districts. Illinois is not Texas, you aren't going to get a plan that gets rid of every white legislator that isn't a Republican.

[BigSkyBob]

It's not possible to make another 50%+ VAP Hispanic district in Illinois, one with just a plurality would never be ordered by any court, it's already clear about how the court views those districts. Illinois is not Texas, you aren't going to get a plan that gets rid of every white legislator that isn't a Republican.

Since a second Hispanic majority seat has been drawn, and posted here, it is "possible."

[DrScholl]

I have yet to see a second Hispanic district here that is or goes over 50% VAP, which is pretty much required, as is shown by court cases that have struck down plurality districts.