U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If we can get back to actual redistricting commentary, the state House has reportedly passed the map with a slight alteration to the 13th district (the Springfield-Champaign-Urbana district).

Does it impact any other district? Otherwise it must have been VERY slight.

The only changes were to fiddle with the borders around Champaign-Urbana and Collinsville to put Shimkus into the vote sink 15th and Johnson into the swing district 13th, and it also adjusts the finger into Springfield; it juts in from the south rather than hooking around from the north.

Here are the new maps.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DKE crunched the new district numbers for 2010 (including the Treasurer race, for some reason):

IL-01 - 71.4 Quinn, 22.0 Brady; 72.8 Alexi, 23.5 Kirk
IL-02 - 71.5 Quinn, 21.4 Brady; 73.7 Alexi, 22.6 Kirk
IL-03 - 47.5 Quinn, 44.1 Brady; 48.4 Kirk, 46.0 Alexi
IL-04 - 67.4 Quinn, 23.1 Brady; 69.1 Alexi, 24.8 Kirk
IL-05 - 55.5 Quinn, 36.4 Brady; 54.9 Alexi, 40.2 Kirk
IL-06 - 58.3 Brady, 34.9 Quinn; 61.7 Kirk, 33.3 Alexi
IL-07 - 79.4 Quinn, 14.9 Brady; 80.6 Alexi, 16.4 Kirk
IL-08 - 48.1 Brady, 43.6 Quinn; 51.1 Kirk, 43.1 Alexi
IL-09 - 56.2 Quinn, 37.4 Brady; 53.5 Alexi, 42.7 Kirk
IL-10 - 46.8 Quinn, 46.1 Brady; 53.7 Kirk, 42.2 Alexi
IL-11 - 46.8 Brady, 45.1 Quinn; 49.0 Kirk, 45.3 Alexi
IL-12 - 49.7 Brady, 43.9 Quinn; 51.1 Kirk, 42.8 Alexi
IL-13 - 55.8 Brady, 37.2 Quinn; 55.0 Kirk, 38.0 Alexi
IL-14 - 57.9 Brady, 33.6 Quinn; 60.5 Kirk, 32.7 Alexi
IL-15 - 67.4 Brady, 26.6 Quinn; 67.1 Kirk, 26.4 Alexi
IL-16 - 59.0 Brady, 32.3 Quinn; 60.1 Kirk, 31.9 Alexi
IL-17 - 53.7 Brady, 38.9 Quinn; 54.1 Kirk, 38.6 Alexi
IL-18 - 66.6 Brady, 26.6 Quinn; 66.6 Kirk, 26.6 Alexi

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The map has passed the Senate, so it's on its way to Quinn's desk.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They're not super-safe districts, but after their best year in a generation, Republicans only hold 12 districts that went 49% or less for Bush. Add to that the fact that several of the districts are probably not going to have an incumbent running in them and Obama will be winning them with double-digit margins, and you've got a problem.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Greg Giroux reports that Quinn has signed the Congressional map into law.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So the Republicans released their own map to go with their court challenge. It's supposed to create a second Hispanic district, but... it's only 46.5% Hispanic VAP. Yeah, that's not going anywhere. If you're curious, their map can be seen at the bottom of this pdf. They really hate Rock Island County, because it's split both here and in their proposed state legislative maps they released a few months ago.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's what I have for '04 (Kerry/Bush), '08 (Obama/McCain), and PVI for each district.

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10