U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

According to Cook Political Report

http://www.cookpolitical.com/

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[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm not sure that smilie is appropriate.

Why not?  Is there a significant difference between and or do you mean that I shouldn't be happy that the Democrats are actually poised to have a redistricting success?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yah, obviously I'm not saying they mustn't. Just that it's nothing to write home to mom about.

Fair enough

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Drawing it in DRA now, as best I can...

IL-10 goes from 61% Obama to ~63% Obama.
IL-12 goes up a point from 54% to 55% Obama.
IL-15 goes from 50% McCain to 54% Obama.
IL-16 goes from 53% Obama to about 50% Obama.
IL-17 goes from 56% Obama to about 59-60% Obama - Schock and Schilling are both in this district.
IL-18 goes from 50% McCain to 54% McCain.
IL-19 renumbered to IL-13 is 56% McCain, up from 54% McCain. - Shimkus and Johnson are both in this district.

Not sure where Kinzinger lives; somewhere in McLean County, I presume, but it's split between IL-13 and IL-18.

I'm going crosseyed, I'll try to do the rest later.

I think you made a mistake, I have IL-15 as 56% McCain and IL-13 as 54% Obama

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

 

No it isn't, but thanks for playing! 

My point was that it is silly to expect EITHER party to simply waste its trifectas unless there is an independent/bipartisan redistricting process in every state (from a practicality standpoint).  It isn't just Republicans making Democrats do it, the reverse is also true, and the only way to break this vicious cycle is for every state to have a California-style independent redistricting commission.  Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders than roll-over and play dead in the face of maps like NC, MI, OH, TX, PA, and FL (although I am well aware that this is what BigSkyBob wants to see). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

No, it isn't.

"However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage."

If that isn't the "The Republicans made us do it" argument, what is?

"Illinois would have drawn a fair map if only the Republicans hadn't done what they did in Michigan/Texas/whatever, serves them right."

The arguments you point out here and elsewhere are variations on "the system is screwed, so the Dems shouldn't practice unilateral disarmament." Rather different from "we would have disarmed if only the Republicans had gone first."

Correct!  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yah, a partisan map passed with minimal debate and no public input is not anything to be proud of.

I'm not proud of it in the way you mean, I dislike gerrymandering by either party.  However, until all states adopt a truly independent redistricting process it seems unreasonable to expect one party not to try to use control of the trifecta to its advantage.  I wasn't proud of it, but I am happy that the Democrats didn't role over and play dead like they did in Arkansas, Missouri, and (with the state legislative maps) Virginia.

Here's a variation of the "The Republicans made us do it" argument.

 

No it isn't, but thanks for playing! 

My point was that it is silly to expect EITHER party to simply waste its trifectas unless there is an independent/bipartisan redistricting process in every state (from a practicality standpoint).  It isn't just Republicans making Democrats do it, the reverse is also true, and the only way to break this vicious cycle is for every state to have a California-style independent redistricting commission.  Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders than roll-over and play dead in the face of maps like NC, MI, OH, TX, PA, and FL (although I am well aware that this is what BigSkyBob wants to see). 

"Until that happens, I'd rather see the Democrats respond in kind to gerrymanders..."

That is the "The Republicans made us do it" argument for gerrrymandering.

No it isn't, it is an example of the logical fallacy of quoting out of context.