U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a Dem map of Chicago. It's ugly as hell.

State:



Chicago:





Wider view of NE Illinois:



IL-01 (blue, Bobby Rush - D) - Stretches down into Will County to soak up some Republican votes. 53% black.
IL-02 (green, Jesse Jackson Jr. - D) - Same as above; 52% black.
IL-03 (purple, Dan Lipinski - D) This one gets pushed out into the suburbs; it hooks around through DuPage to pull in some parts of northern Cook County. It should still lean Dem, but not as much. Biggert might try to run here; her house is either just inside or more likely just outside the border.
IL-04 (red, Luis Gutierrez - D) - Southern half of his old district; 62% Hispanic.
IL-05 (yellow, Michael Quigley - D) - Had to combine his district with parts of IL-04 to make another Hispanic district. It's 57% Hispanic. Quigley would probably not be the favorite to survive here.
IL-06 (teal, Pete Roskam - R and Judy Biggert - R) - Thrown together, it's actually not a whole lot of either Roskam or Biggert's district. It should be pretty safe for the primary victor, assuming Biggert were to run here.
IL-07 (grey, Danny Davis - D) - Mostly the same, just expands a bit. 56% black.
IL-08 (light purple, open) - Drew McHenry out of the district, so Walsh is put into Manzullo's district. Adds more of Cook County; should be a little less Republican now, Bean would likely make a strong comeback.
IL-09 (light teal, Jan Schakowsky - D) - Moves south somewhat, still safe D.
IL-10 (magenta, Bob Dold - R) - Pretty much the same; if the Democrats can just get someone not named Dan Seals to win the nomination...
IL-11 (very light green, Adam Kinzinger - R) - Drops a bunch of rural area and expands north into Bolingbrook. Should be more of a swing district now. Just get a new candidate, Dems.
IL-12 (light blue, Jerry Costello - D and John Shimkus - R) - All the Dem-leaning territory in the southern half of the state. Should remain safe for Costello. Shimkus lives in this district, but he could easily move into the new IL-13.
IL-13 (pink, open) - Formerly IL-19, the rest of the southern half of the state. Shimkus would go here. Safe R.
IL-14 (brown, Randy Hultgren - R) - Gathers up as much Dem-friendly territory in Kane County, then instead of the old phallic southwest-pointing district, goes northwest through DeKalb to Rockford (cue synthesizer music). Bill Foster could retake this district; the Hispanic percentage increased from 18% to 25%, and the black percentage from 5% to 9%.
IL-15 (orange, Tim Johnson - R) - I tried to put as much not-heavily-Republican territory in this district as possible; it's centered in Champaign-Urbana and Bloomington. Probably wouldn't be too hard for Johnson to hold, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that it could give the Republicans a headache in an open seat.
IL-16 (light green, Don Manzullo - R and Joe Walsh - R) - Cuts out Rockford and stretches east to take in McHenry and parts of Lake and a bit of Cook County. Safe R.
IL-17 (purple, Bobby Schilling - R and Aaron Schock - R) - About as ridiculous as before, with the bonus of adding Peoria to the district. It doesn't, however, stretch all the way south to IL-14. Schock lives in Peoria, but would move to IL-18. Schilling would probably lose to a decent Democrat; again, get a better candidate, Dems.
IL-18 (yellow, open) - Safe R. Schock goes here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Someone should tell Wikipedia that they've got so many wrong residences.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Walsh is listed as living in McHenry, and Kinzinger in Manteno. Hultgren does live outside the district, I mistook the county it was in for Kane.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's another attempt at Illinois.

State



Chicago



IL-01 (blue, Bobby Rush - D) - Snakes from the shores of Lake Michigan (where Rush apparently lives) down to Joliet. 52.6% black VAP.
IL-02 (green, Jesse Jackson Jr. - D) - South side of Chicago to Kankakee. 52.4% black VAP.
IL-03 (purple, Dan Lipinski - D) - Expands south into more of suburban Cook County, but should remain safe for Lipinski.
IL-04 (red, Luis Gutierrez - D) - Retains the earmuff shape. 60.4% Hispanic VAP.
IL-05 (yellow, Mike Quigley - D) - Expands west into Elmhurst, but should still be safe Dem.
IL-06 (teal, Pete Roskam - R and Randy Hultgren - R) - Probably a pretty safe Republican district based in DuPage County. Doesn't really seem to be much point in trying to endanger of Roskam, since after 2006 Democrats gave up on beating him in his current district. Hultgren ends up in here since his home is in DuPage, but he'd run in IL-14.
IL-07 (grey, Danny Davis - D) - Gobbles up part of IL-01 in order to maintain its population. 51.7% black VAP.
IL-08 (light purple, Joe Walsh - R) - I'm still unclear as to where Walsh lives, but he'd run here; it's made pretty safe.
IL-09 (sky blue, Jan Schakowsky - D and Bob Dold - R) - Dold gets drawn into Schakowsky's district, but if he wants to remain in Congress he'll move into IL-10, since this is still a safe Dem district.
IL-10 (magenta, open) - Democrats might finally pick this seat up under this configuration, especially if they get someone other than Dan Seals to run. It picks up some Dem-friendly parts of Lake County from IL-08 and drops Dold's best areas from Cook.
IL-11 (light pink, Adam Kinzinger - R and Tim Johnson - R) - Kinzinger gets screwed in this district, as most of it is formerly Johnson's IL-15.
IL-12 (light purple downstate, Jerry Costello - D and John Shimkus - R) - Tried to draw this to squeeze one or two more points of Democratic performance out of it. Shimkus is drawn into the district as a result, but he'd just have to move one county over to what is basically his old district (now IL-15).
IL-13 (pink, Judy Biggert - R) - Adds Kendall County to most of her old territory; probably more Republican now.
IL-14 (brown, open) - I tried to connect as many Dem-friendly suburbs as possible. I think I've come up with something that would be a swing district. Hultgren doesn't live here anymore, but it's where he would run.
IL-15 (orange, open) - As I said above, Shimkus would run here, it's safe Republican and is mostly the old IL-19.
IL-16 (light green, Don Manzullo - R and Bobby Schilling - R) - Sprawls across the northern third of the state now. Safe Republican. Manzullo lives in the little strip that connects IL-17 to Rockford, so just assume that I fixed that because I don't want to redo the maps. Schilling is in the district, but just barely, so he'd run in IL-17.
IL-17 (purple monstrosity, Aaron Schock - R) - An insane monstrosity that gobbles up every Dem-friendly area from Rockford to Springfield. Schilling would run here. Schock ends up in this district since he lives in Peoria, but he'd run in IL-18.
IL-18 (yellow, open) - Pretty similar to the old IL-18, Schock would run here. Safe R.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There aren't enough Hispanics in the north side of the earmuff for a second Hispanic-majority district. You can get up to around 44-45% VAP, and that's it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The app has partisan data (2008 election) for Illinois now.

Edit: Well, maybe not, the data is totally screwed up (at least for 2010, I haven't checked the old stuff).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's supposedly fixed; I haven't tried it yet.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Extreeeeeme Democratic gerrymandering!

State



Chicagoland



IL-01 (blue) - Blah blah black district #1. 79.8 Obama, 19.5 McCain, 50.6% black VAP.
IL-02 (green) - Blah blah black district #2. 79.2 Obama, 20.1 McCain, 51.0% black VAP.
IL-03 (purple) - Had to expand a bit, but pretty similar to the old district; 62.6 Obama, 36.1 McCain. 34.7% Hispanic VAP.
IL-04 (red) - Earmuffs again. 79.2 Obama, 19.5 McCain, 59.8% Hispanic VAP.
IL-05 (yellow) - Had to go north. 72.9 Obama, 25.7 McCain.
IL-06 (teal) - Dumps a bunch of DuPage, adds more of Cook and part of Kane. Was 56-43 Obama, now 61.4 Obama, 37.2 McCain. Should be a swing district at the very least.
IL-07 (grey) - Blah blah black district #3. 88.7 Obama, 10.7 McCain, 50.9% black VAP.
IL-08 (light purple) - Stretches across the border with Wisconsin, and is now safe Republican. 49.6 Obama, 48.8 McCain.
IL-09 (sky blue) - Expands north into Lake County to take in some Republican territory, but is still safe Dem. 65.9 Obama, 33.0 McCain.
IL-10 (magenta) - Maybe this can finally dislodge Republican hold of this seat. Was 61-38 Obama, now 63.6 Obama, 35.3 McCain.
IL-11 (red downstate) - The former IL-19, a very Republican district at 55.9 McCain, 42.3 Obama.
IL-12 (light purple downstate) - Shores up Costello a bit; was 54-44 Obama, now 57.5 Obama, 40.9 McCain.
IL-13 (pink Chicago suburbs) - Dumps all the most Republican parts of DuPage, Kane, and Will Counties into one district. I believe Roskam and Hultgren end up here along with Biggert. Was 54-45 Obama, now 49.4 Obama, 49.3 McCain.
IL-14 (brown) - Jolet-Bolingbrook-Aurora-DeKalb, if you want to get Canadian about it. Was 55-44 Obama, now 64.6 Obama, 34.1 McCain. Should be Dem-leaning at the very least.
IL-15 (orange) - An interesting way to build a new Dem-friendly district; this contains Peoria, Bloomington-Normal, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and Springfield, connected in kind of a triskelion shape. Kinzinger and Johnson are put together. 57.8 Obama, 40.4 McCain.
IL-16 (light green) - Manzullo's district is almost entirely new, but he'd be safe here. 51.4 McCain, 47.1 Obama.
IL-17 (pink western district) - Doubly hurt Schilling by a. making a more Democratic district and b. giving him almost entirely new territory. Takes in west Rockford, and parts of LaSalle. 59.4 Obama, 39.0 McCain.
IL-18 (yellow) - Schock safe. 55.5 McCain, 42.9 Obama.

So, best-case scenario? 13-5 Dem delegation.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, best-case scenario? 13-5 Dem delegation.

Best case for Republicans?

10-8 Republican, but that's assuming they can hold all the seats that are made more Democratic (IL-06, 10, 14, 15, and 17).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Any more spread out than 13-5 and you get into extreme dummymander territory. There's also not much more Dem unpacking that can be done; Quigley's district is about the only district you could draw Democratic voters out of, and it's pretty well protected from being diluted, since the Hispanic district is to the south and heavily-Dem territory is to the north.

And due to Obama's overperformance in Illinois, I wouldn't drop any district percentages in the currently-safe districts below 63-64% Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, I think Missouri has shown us that CBC members are going to pitch a fit if they don't get what they want, and order their followers in the legislature to give them districts at the expense of other members of Congress.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And now, for an alternate universe where Bill Brady swept a Republican majority into the legislature, here's a Republican gerrymander:




IL-01 (blue) - 87.6 Obama, 11.8 McCain, 52.5% black VAP.
IL-02 (green) - 82.8 Obama, 16.5 McCain, 51.5% black VAP.
IL-03 (purple) - 51.6 Obama, 47.0 McCain.
IL-04 (red Cook) - 79.6 Obama, 19.2 McCain, 65.7% Hispanic VAP.
IL-05 (yellow Cook) - 79.1 Obama, 19.5 McCain.
IL-06 (teal) - 55.8 Obama, 42.9 McCain.
IL-07 (grey) - 89.4 Obama, 9.9 McCain, 51.2% black VAP.
IL-08 (light purple NE) - 55.5 Obama, 43.1 McCain.
IL-09 (sky blue) - 68.5 Obama, 30.3 McCain.
IL-10 (magenta) - 56.2 Obama, 42.8 McCain.
IL-11 (red central) - 52.6 Obama, 46.0 McCain.
IL-12 (light purple downstate) - 50.4 Obama, 48.1 McCain.
IL-13 (pink) - 53.5 Obama, 45.2 McCain.
IL-14 (brown) - 54.2 Obama, 44.4 McCain.
IL-15 (orange) - 49.3 McCain, 48.8 Obama.
IL-16 (green NW) - 53.4 Obama, 44.9 McCain.
IL-17 (purple W) - 52.4 Obama, 46.1 McCain.
IL-18 (yellow central) - 51.3 Obama, 46.9 McCain.

I put Dan Lipinski and Judy Biggert in the same district as well as Jerry Costello and John Shimkus. Assuming Shimkus can beat Costello (and I removed as much of the existing 12th as possible), the Republicans would have a 12-6 advantage on this map.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rather meek proposal, all things considered.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Do either of those actually influence the creation of new maps (outside of a commission or other nonpartisan system)? All of the public hearings here in Virginia didn't do squat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Drawing it in DRA now, as best I can...

IL-10 goes from 61% Obama to ~63% Obama.
IL-12 goes up a point from 54% to 55% Obama.
IL-15 goes from 50% McCain to 54% Obama.
IL-16 goes from 53% Obama to about 50% Obama.
IL-17 goes from 56% Obama to about 59-60% Obama - Schock and Schilling are both in this district.
IL-18 goes from 50% McCain to 54% McCain.
IL-19 renumbered to IL-13 is 56% McCain, up from 54% McCain. - Shimkus and Johnson are both in this district.

Not sure where Kinzinger lives; somewhere in McLean County, I presume, but it's split between IL-13 and IL-18.

I'm going crosseyed, I'll try to do the rest later.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Lipinski's district is a little weird; he's down to about D+5, but it definitely could be more; they seem to have marooned some overwhelmingly Hispanic precincts in IL-01 for no discernable reason, precincts that could be used to shore up Lipinski instead (while putting suburban areas in IL-01; we're talking precincts that are 90% Hispanic and 2% black, so it's not like the suburbs are any less black than they are).

The obvious answer is to protect him from a primary challenge from a liberal and/or Hispanic Democrat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are PDFs of the districts so you can see the township lines.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, here are a few more:

IL-03 goes from 64% Obama to about 59-60% Obama.
IL-06 goes from 56% Obama to about 51-52% Obama.
IL-08 goes from 56% Obama to 61% Obama.
IL-11 goes from 53% Obama to 61% Obama.
IL-14 goes from 55% Obama to about 50-51% Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

John Atkinson, the guy challenging Lipinski in the primary who already has $500k in the bank, got put into IL-11.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yes, they're backwards.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a complete 2008 breakdown from someone on DKE:

1 - 80.7/18.6 Obama/McCain
2 - 81.0/18.3
3 - 58.4/40.3
4 - 80.4/18.3
5 - 69.9/28.7
6 - 51.3/47.4
7 - 89.4/10.0
8 - 61.3/37.3
9 - 68.5/30.3
10 - 63.0/36.0
11 - 61.2/37.6
12 - 54.7/43.6
13 - 54.2/43.9
14 - 50.7/48.0
15 - 42.8/55.5
16 - 50.1/48.1
17 - 59.7/38.8
18 - 44.5/54.0

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I doubt the 8th or 11th can be held by the Republicans. Roskam and Hultgren will go for the safe districts (6th and 14th, respectively), leaving, what, Joe Walsh (put into the 14th) for the 8th and Adam Kinzinger (who is either in the 2nd, 13th, or 18th, depending on who you believe) for the 11th? Judy Biggert's put into the 5th, so she'll probably just retire. Bob Dold is also probably screwed, since he barely won in a great Republican year against a terrible Democratic candidate. Making his district any more Democratic is probably going to push him over the edge.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't think anyone's figured that out yet, since it requires a lot of number-crunching, rather than just drawing the map in DRA.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Atkinson lives in Burr Ridge, which is right on the edge of the new IL-11. He now has to choose between running against Bill Foster (who just announced) or Dan Lipinski. Don Manzullo's going to have a bit of a headache on his hands, with Kinzinger and possibly Walsh running in IL-16.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If we can get back to actual redistricting commentary, the state House has reportedly passed the map with a slight alteration to the 13th district (the Springfield-Champaign-Urbana district).