U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[DrScholl]

13-5 is not hard to achieve at all. Three Republican downstate districts, as well as one in DuPage County and one anchored on McHenry County. All of that can be done very safely.

[DrScholl]

how does Peter Roskam get elected? Someone with an ACU of 98 shouldn't be able to survive in an EVEN district.

It's more Republican than the PVI would indicate. Republicans heavily control all local offices there.

[DrScholl]

Chicago's African-American population went down, it's unavoidable for Davis' seat not to lose some of the percentage.

[DrScholl]

No actual map, but a synopsis of some of what is being planned. 9-8-1.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/section/blogs?blogID=greg-hinz&plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&uid=1daca073-2eab-468e-9f19-ec177090a35c&plckPostId=Blog%3a1daca073-2eab-468e-9f19-ec177090a35cPost%3a11773231-f2d5-4d73-98c4-43b1da969c85&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest

[DrScholl]

According to Cook Political Report

http://www.cookpolitical.com/

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[DrScholl]

And we have a map

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=http:%2F%2Fcapitolfax.com%2Fsb1178-congressional.kmz&aq=&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=56.637293,69.169922&ie=UTF8&z=7

[DrScholl]

It's not exact, but for the suburban districts, I subtract 6-7% from Obama's total and that probably brings it down to where the numbers were in 2004. Of course, not all swing is uniform, but it can give you a slight idea.

[DrScholl]

It's not possible to make another 50%+ VAP Hispanic district in Illinois, one with just a plurality would never be ordered by any court, it's already clear about how the court views those districts. Illinois is not Texas, you aren't going to get a plan that gets rid of every white legislator that isn't a Republican.

[DrScholl]

I have yet to see a second Hispanic district here that is or goes over 50% VAP, which is pretty much required, as is shown by court cases that have struck down plurality districts.