U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[krazen1211]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

So five R's eliminated?

It's entirely possible. Obama will be at the top of the ticket again, so there is a balance that must be done between the current incumbent Dems and how many seats they want to put at risk in 2014.

The goal here should probably be something like 13-5.

IL-1 and IL-2 can easily take out Kinzinger, IL-9 can take out IL-10. Combine Biggert and Roskam into 1 super GOP suburban district. Redraw the ridiculous Quad Cities district to be something much more Democratic. Then just eliminate something downstate.

[krazen1211]

It's certainly possible to take out 6 Rs to get a 13-5 delegation. However, I suspect it will require some sitting Ds to move out of their comfort zone in revised districts (eg IL-9 stretching up to WI), and even so, a couple of downstate districts may only be about D+2.

The Quad Cities district was drawn to be as Dem as possible 10 years ago without using Peoria. Presumable it could add Peoria now to boost its numbers. IL-17 could also be split to try to bolster 2 districts per your 13-5 hypothesis.

Are the numbers there to support 3 downstate districts? It seems like the safer bet is to eliminate Schock, draw 2 downstate districts (12, 17), leave Shimkus, Johnson, Hultgren, Manzullo, Roskam alone, and swamp Biggert, Dold, Kinzinger with Chicago votes.

The remaining Republican seat is Walsh; I haven't figured out a way to get rid of him as well without really tortured lines because he's only bordering Republicans, but I guess you run him into Rockford or Cook County.

You're completely right about the D+3 or so limit downstate. It just appears at first glance that trying to attack Johnson as well as Schilling is going to completely backfire.

[krazen1211]

It's certainly possible to take out 6 Rs to get a 13-5 delegation. However, I suspect it will require some sitting Ds to move out of their comfort zone in revised districts (eg IL-9 stretching up to WI), and even so, a couple of downstate districts may only be about D+2.

The Quad Cities district was drawn to be as Dem as possible 10 years ago without using Peoria. Presumable it could add Peoria now to boost its numbers. IL-17 could also be split to try to bolster 2 districts per your 13-5 hypothesis.

Update:

Population figures for the Cook County districts were brutal. The Rush/Jackson districts are about 150k below each.

I don't think 13-5 is realistic given the updated figures. The Kinzinger seat seems like an obvious target for elimination, Dold can easily be swamped by Schakowsky,  and Biggert can probably be taken out by Quigley and Lipinski. The Costello district isn't exactly a democratic stronghold either.


These districts have to last a decade. Well, technically not, I'm not sure what IL law is, but this might go the way of PA 2000.

[krazen1211]

Three black-majority districts are still possible, but not in Cook County alone. One way is to extend IL-2 into Will and Kankakee. Certainly the Dems could negotiate to have one district under 50% without a legal challenge, but I think then IL-7 would extend into GOP areas to the west, not to the north.

Is it a given that 2 hispanic districts and 3 black districts will help the pubbies?

[krazen1211]

I tried making 2 hispanic districts and couldn't with the final census data.


http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/7726/chicago.png







The red district is 51% Hispanic while the slate green one is 47% Hispanic. It might hit 50 by 2020 though.

This map eliminates Lipinski's district by pairing him with Biggert, and swamps Dold, Walsh, and Roskam with Cook County votes.

[krazen1211]

I guess they weren't willing to draw multiple quad cities districts as has been pictured.


In any case, it looks like:

Dold is chopped and effectively thrown in with Walsh.

Biggert and Kinzinger are thrown into 1 distict, and a new Dem district created.

Schilling remains about as is.


I guess we won't see anything like Kankakee being fed to Jesse Jackson.

[krazen1211]

9-8-1







OK, so lets see. I didn't want to spend all day on this because the information might be entirely wrong, but:


CD-01 (blue): Bobby Rush, 52% black, 81% Obama. Just shoved this outward in Cook County.

CD-02: (forest green): Jesse Jackson, 51% black, 79% Obama. Shoved it south into Will County.

CD-03 (purple): Dan Lipinski, 63% Obama. Added areas in Will County as described.

CD-04 (red): Luis Guitierrez, 63% Hispanic, 82% Obama. Added areas by the airport as described.

CD-05 (yellow): Mike Quigley, 69% Obama. Added areas from current IL-10 and IL-09 to the North.

CD-06 (slate green): Peter Roskan, Judy Biggert, 54% Obama. Dupage County vote dump. Safe R.

CD-07 (grey): Danny Davis, 47% black (51% total population, per the article). Adds some Northern Chicago whites, and blacks from the southside districts.

CD-09: (cyan): Jan Schakowsky, 72% Obama. Expands north into Republican Cook County suburbs.


CD-08 (lavendar): vacant, 59% Obama. Basically all of Lake County. I don't think Dold or Walsh lives here, but 1 of them takes it. Historically Republican, but I guess I'll call this a swing.


CD-10: (pink): John Shimkus, 55% McCain). Old IL-19 Not much to say.

CD-11: (light green): vacant, 51% Obama. Kind of a merger of the rural areas of Hultgren and Kinzinger's districts. Safe R.

CD-12: (sky blue): Jerry Costello, 56% Obama. Adds the rest of Madison County. Safe for him.

CD-13: (peach): vacant, 59% Obama. New district created from Joliet and Aurora, west of current CD-04 as described. Probably safe D.

CD-14: (brownish gold): vacant, 57% Obama. New district created out of random bits of existing Republican districts. I'll call this a swing, too.

CD-15: (orange): Tim Johnson, Adam Kinzinger, 51% Obama. Adda Kankakee County (Kinzinger's home). Safe R.

CD-16: (lime green): Don Manzullo, Joe Walsh, 53% Obama. Runs along the northern IL border. Safe R.

CD-17: (navy): Bobby Schilling, Aaron Schock, 57% Obama. Schock would just run in CD-18. I made it a bit cleaner and added Peoria. The article describes this as swing.

CD-18: (yellow): Aaron Schock, 52% McCain. Adds random rural areas in central IL.



So I guess it depends on how you count districts as swing or safe.

I'd say there's 6 certain safe R districts: 6, 10, 11, 15, 16, 18.

The Democrats probably take 1-5, 7, 9, 12, 13.

The remainder are 14, 17, 8. 8 and 14 are the districts in the Northern suburbs where Obama outperformed historical Democrats, and 17 is the Quad Cities Oddball.

9-6-3 D-R-Swing seems somewhat reasonable I guess, or if you count the above 2 as R, it becomes 9-8-1.

[krazen1211]

so does this map get rid of Peter Roscum?

Nope, it gets rid of Biggert, possibly Schilling, and 1 of Manzullo/Walsh/Dold, who were combined from 3 to 2.

I have no idea whether the information provided is accurate but I followed it as best as I was able.

Realistically you can't get rid of Roskam anyway; he's probably the strongest suburban Republican around in a primary.

[krazen1211]

Here's another 'reasonable' 11-7 Illinois map along the lines of what was described. Gives them the Dold, Schilling, Biggert districts, and dissolves Hultgren. Costello won't be around forever...

[krazen1211]

1. Bloomington/Decatur/Springfield/Champaign  quad cities district created.

2. Peoria and Rockford added to the Schilling district.

3. CD-12 is left as barely Dem.

4. Joliet/Aurora/Bollingbrook district created. Probably upper 50s Obama.

5. Elgin/Elk Grove/Schaumberg district created. Probably also upper 50s Obama.

6. Dold is about the same.

[krazen1211]

Hmm, thanks. I didn't think there was any specific historical significance to the term; and that it was only called the quad cities district because, well, it has 4 cities in it.

I believe its only 55% Obama, though. Probably enough to make Johnson sweat a bit but that's it. The Costello district is the same.

[krazen1211]

Also, the green suburban district is a very impressive gerrymander, around 61% Obama on my calculations using DRA. It will elect a Democrat. There are a couple of places where it's less efficient than it could be; I could squeeze another Obama point or two out without disturbing other Democratic seats. But they did a very impressive job nonetheless.

Pretty well drawn. They probably placed the 1 guy who can win that seat (Roskam) outside it as he would take the inner vote sink. Walsh I think by residence would go for the outer vote sink.

Biggert would it looks like have to kamikaze Lipinski or retire. Kinzinger after his 2010 performance might try for the Joliet-Aurora district, and Hultgren has to figure out what he wants to do.

[krazen1211]

John Atkinson, the guy challenging Lipinski in the primary who already has $500k in the bank, got put into IL-11.

Overlap map:

http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=d35d2ae99e8c4e8face75308512c37f9

The average GOP Congressional incumbent outperformed McCain by about 10 points in 2008, and none of their incumbents lost. For Roskam and Kirk that was closer to 14; hence the latter easily winning a 61% Obama district.



The GOP is going to have to get the right guys in the right seats to hold 8 and 11. 10 is pretty obvious: Dold sinks or swims. Kirk of course had an easy time after winning that seat 51/49.

[krazen1211]

Dold is an incumbent now, and most of his territory (although not his house) remains in the 10th. It looks to me though like they added some ultra-leftist latte liberal areas from Jan that will probably never vote GOP, unlike the ticket splitters slightly to the east.

Biggert is an incumbent in about half of that IL-11, and Kinzinger represents Joliet, so I guess it really depends on whether Biggert just calls it quits. This Atkinson guy looks like a top tier challenger, though. Kinzinger's 57% in 2010 is a bit deceptive, but he outperformed the other GOP freshmen.

Roskam is an incumbent in most of that IL-08, but he's not taking it unfortunately, which makes it tricky for them. Probably the most likely to go of the 3. Really depends on whether the Democrats here will vote for a non Christian I suppose.


In all likelihood its a clean sweep, but stranger things have happened. Democrats have kept nominating Dan Seals in IL-10 and nutters from Lower Merion in PA-06 who kept losing.

[krazen1211]

I doubt the 8th or 11th can be held by the Republicans. Roskam and Hultgren will go for the safe districts (6th and 14th, respectively), leaving, what, Joe Walsh (put into the 14th) for the 8th and Adam Kinzinger (who is either in the 2nd, 13th, or 18th, depending on who you believe) for the 11th? Judy Biggert's put into the 5th, so she'll probably just retire. Bob Dold is also probably screwed, since he barely won in a great Republican year against a terrible Democratic candidate. Making his district any more Democratic is probably going to push him over the edge.

Assuming that the two-point swing from 61% to 63% Obama were repeated congressionally in Dold's seat, he would have lost this new seat in 2010 49-51 (instead of winning 51-49), let alone in 2012 with Obama at the top of the ticket.

So, it all revolves down to the question of whether, or not, being the incumbent is worth 1.00001% of the vote.

Nate Silver estimates that incumbency is worth about 5% if I recall. The issue is that CD-8 (on appearance, the weakest district of the 3) doesn't have a long term incumbent.

A 2 point swing wouldn't have beaten Kirk, and a 5 point swing wouldn't have beaten Roskam. 5 points would have beaten Biggert, however, but only by a very tiny margin.

[krazen1211]

I don't think anyone's figured that out yet, since it requires a lot of number-crunching, rather than just drawing the map in DRA.

I ask because it's probably the more relevant figure.  Someone will figure it out, eventually.

Do you think those 60% Obama districts will become Bush districts? I don't think that would happen even in suburban Chicago.

It would line up right. Lake County swung 11%, McHenry about 13%, and Dupage 10%.

[krazen1211]

What I support is common sense redistricting that respects communities and are derived from natural boundaries.

The problem YOU LIBERALS have is that if that were to happen across the board, you all would be relegated to a minority of 70-90% Democrat seats, while we would have a majority with seats that were 50-70% Republican.  Sorry guys-- not our fault democrats are crowded into a small number of districts.

The Missouri map could have been a little tidier but the outcome would have been the same.
Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma look good.  I hate Louisiana but we were forced to gerrymander it by an archaic racism statute

Yep. Didn't the Democrats take Will County and split it 6 ways?

Under common sense districting Detroit, minus the Hispanic part, would have been shoved into its own district. The law creates a pair of artificially ugly districts rather than 2 that maintain communities of interest.

[krazen1211]

Kerry Bush numbers.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_131/-206079-1.html

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), who was elected by a slim 2-point margin in November, received 51 percent, 54 percent and 49 percent in the 8th, 10th and 11th districts, respectively, according to the data.

In 2004, then-President George W. Bush received 49 percent of the vote in the 8th, 46 percent in the 10th district and 49 percent in the 11th district.



As I suspected, no reason at all for 8 and 11 to be automatically gone.

[krazen1211]

Ah, what could have been. This would be glorious; rest of the state is 53/45. I cut the Davis district and created a new 42% Hispanic district; Jackson and Rush are bumped up to 65% or so.

[krazen1211]

Greg Giroux reports that Quinn has signed the Congressional map into law.

Now that it is law the GOP delegation officially announced that a lawsuit will be forthcoming. I expect that it will be about Latino representation.

I suppose it will be about the lack of Latino representation.

Yep. By contrast, Texas is increasing Latino representation.

http://www.kutnews.org/post/castro-take-doggett-new-congressional-seat

Castro To Take On Doggett for New Congressional Seat

[krazen1211]

'kay, so I was reading the post below that. Not that it matters anyhow - it's not possible to draw one that would elect a Hispanic and represent a community of interest, and thus not possible to draw one that can be used to argue your case in court. That random connector strip through whiteyland isn't going to be ordered by any court (whether a court could be found to strike it down, had the Democrats drawn it themselves, is quite another matter. Probably not, though it's happened.) Come back when you have a map that does without Elgin. (Not saying it's literally impossible, as I haven't tried.)

Guitierrez would be the incumbent in the northern 40-45% district. MALDEF desired the split idea because the southern district would give them a fair chance at electing a 2nd Hispanic.

[krazen1211]

So the Republicans released their own map to go with their court challenge. It's supposed to create a second Hispanic district, but... it's only 46.5% Hispanic VAP. Yeah, that's not going anywhere. If you're curious, their map can be seen at the bottom of this pdf. They really hate Rock Island County, because it's split both here and in their proposed state legislative maps they released a few months ago.

Mark Veasey in Texas released a map with even lower figures of hispanics as measured by voter registration.