U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[ill ind]

  I've been looking at the 2005-2009 estimate data and I'm really beginning to doubt if there will be a second Hispanic District.  The population has moved west.  The former bullwarks of the eastern end of the north part of the earmuff--Logan Square, Humbolt Park and West Town have gentrified.  The Logan Square hispanic poulation dropped from 53,847 to 43,235.  I haven't analyzed West Town yet, but am expecting the same.
  The Black population in Chicago dropped by 11% giving wonder as to whether or not 3 majority African American districts can be maintained.  Proviso and Thornton Townships the suburban African American anchors also saw poulation drops.  Two smaller majority African American townships Bloom and Rich did gain in pop, but not enough to supplant the huge Chicago loss.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  The New York Times has had one up for a while.  So far I have gone through, looked at, and wrote down the ethnic percentages for every cencus district in Illinois.  Cook Co took longer than all the rest of the state combined.
  Now I'm working on the perspective congressional map--I think 2 Hispanic and 3 AA districts may be possible, but it would be an extremely ugly map.
  Neither side of the present 4th Hispanic District is large enough to stand on its own, so some creative mapping to draw in suburban Hispanic enclaves is a necessity for both.  Same with the AA districts.
  I haven't looked at anything with Illinois 7, but interestingly it contains the fastest growing Chicago neighborhoods--Near North, Near South, Near West and Loop along with some of the fastest decliners--East and West Garfield Park, North Lawndale.  Those areas that have grown have become whiter however.
  As I stated earlier, Logan Square, and West Town have lost considerable Hispanic population as gentrification has made both more white.  South Lawndale dropped like a rock in population, but stayed the same ethnicaly.  Lower West sise did whiten out ever so slightly.  Lots of southwest neighborhoods saw a large influx of hispanics--Archer Heights, Garfield Ridge, Clearing, West Lawn, Chicago Lawn, and the western half of Ashburn--replacing the white residents there.
  Both the AA and Hispanic populations have moved west and into the suburbs.  The AA population more so, as it has declined about 100,000 in Chicago.  The Hispanic population in Chicago overall gained slightly--including a large gain on the southeast side--East Side, South Deering, South Chicago, and Hegewisch areas that wouldn't be able to be drawn into a majority Hispanic District.  JJJ's 2nd had a 15-20% Hispanic population as it stands now.

  One nice thing I found out is that the 77 Chicago Neighborhood boundarries coincide with the census district boundaries.

  More as I go further with this.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  I've been going through the population estimates and demographic estimates from sampling data released by the Census Bureas.
  I call it:  There will be no second Hispanic district created in Illinois.  The population is too spread out.  I can create one from the south area, but there is no way that I can see that a free standing majority Hispanic District can be created from the northern area--unless the Dems want to run Quigley against Gutierez--and that defeats the purpose of their controlling the remap.
  Get ready for another 10 years of the earmuff district.

[ill ind]

  I was adding it up by census districts and couldn't get it to work out in the north.  I had it extending out to Addison and Elk Grove townships, but had the Hispanic population at 55% and still 150,000 short on population.  Problem is the gentrification of West Town, Logan Square and a little in Humbolt Park have dropped the Hispanic population in those areas quite a bit.  Thoes are the bulwark of the eastern end of the north part of Il-4.
  I could get south to work, but it wasn't that easy.  I had to incorporate in a long branch down to Joliet to get a 57% Hispanic district--(then work Lipinski's into a reverse earmuff around Joliet--lol).  (Hispanics don't vote in the same percentages as whites or African Americans, so a 57% Hispanic district is absolutely no guarantee of a Hispanic representative.)

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  I forgot to add that if one keeps a single Hispanic district getting a 75%+ Hispanic district is pretty easily accomplished.  BTW I found a path through southern Proviso Township that incorporates even less population than the present one does!!

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  Actually playing with the population figures a bit, it is quite feasible for Il-2 to start at Jesse Jr's house in the South Shore neighborhood and take in the southeast side of Chicago and run south taking in Thornton, Rich, and Bloom townships in Southern Cook County as well as the area in Bremen that it presently encompases.  Then run south in Will taking in Frankfort, Monee, Crete, Green Garden, Will, Washington, and Peotone Townships in Will County.  (Crete and Monee have healthy AA percentages)
  In Kankakee County it can take in Manteno, Sumner, Yellowhead, Ganeer, Momence, Aroma, and Pembroke Townships,  Then inclued the eastern half of Kankakee Township, and the southeast Side of Kankakee (which along with Pembroke Twp have a substantial--if not majority AA population)
  A district like this is the right size and about 55 % AA.
  Disctict 1 can then take in parts of the former District 2 to the north and east, and the remainder of Orland Township to balance the population but still get a district that is about 53% AA.
  This moves District 1 south and east opening up more southside (Englewood, West Englewood, Chicago Lawn, New City) for District 7 to expand.  Also District 7 includes and abuts to some of the faster growing areas of Chicago so population isn't such a big deal--Anyways one can get a 53% or so AA district out of this.
  3 AA districts are pretty feasible.
  I do not see 2 Hispanic ones though--not without demolishing Il-3 and Il 5 anyways.    (For instance a Southern District would have to encompass Joliet.  Getting a Il-3 around that and keeping it Democratic would be pretty hard to acomplish.  I was unable to get a northern standalone district even expanding out into Addison Twp in DuPage and Elk Grove northwest of O'Hare.) The northern part of the earmuff actually lost population along with several areas in West Town and Logan Square no longer having a Hispanic majority.  There was some spread out in areas too such as Belmont-Cragin, Montclair, Portage Park, Irving Park and Albany Park neighborhoods, but it will take the growth in the south added to this to countearct the loss of population in the north to get a reasonable district.
    I think that the earmuff will remain in some form for the next 10 years.
  In 2020 though, if trends remain the same, there will only be 2 AA districts and there will be 2 Hispanic Districts.
Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  Also, if Il-7 is extended west, there is an easy way to still get the earmuff around it.  Right now the north-south connection between the two sections is empty land between I290 and I-294.  They could simply extend it west along I-290 to Salt Creek Forest Preserve, then south to I-88 and then back east again, pulling Elmhurst  and Oakbbrook Terrace into Il-7.

 The population free-possibilities are endless

Ill-Ind

[ill ind]

  Illinois map is supposed to come out this morning.  3 AA districts were retained with Davis being at 51% and the others in the low 50's as well.  1 Hispanic district was maintaines, so we have another 10 years with the earmuffs.

  Supposedly a new Democratic friendly district wass created on the Elgin-Joliet axis weat of Chicago dumping Hultgren and Roskam into the same district.  That will be interesting to see.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  A draft State Senate map (that tosses the GOP minority leader into the same district as another freshman GOp member) was released today.  We are still waiting on the State Assembly (2 districts nested in each State Senate District) and the Congressional map.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  Well, since the GOP will have a presidential primary, and the Dems will not--and also because there are no statewide offices on the ballot in 2012, I don't see a whole lot of GOP primary voters crossing over and voting against Rush in the Dem primary.  If anything, Dems will cross over and vote in the GOP primary.
  I agree--even as an Illinoisan--with liberal tendancies--that Rush can be a total embarrassment.  However the way the district is drawn, there is more than enough of Chicago in there that I'd be suprised if he falls below 70% in a general election.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  Ill district 1 total population 712,813

Portion that was in the old (2000 iteration) 1st district  534,910

Portion that came from Former CD 11--(New Lenox and Frankfort--Will County--95,983

It's going to be alot later than 2014 or 2016 before the exurbs are going to swamp out the Chicago portion of Rush's district.  Believe me,neither  Bobby Rush nor any of the other African American congressmen would have signed off on that map if their future elections weren't guaranteed.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  Lawsuit over the Dems map tossed out today

Ill_Ind