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« Reply #125 on: January 06, 2012, 07:39:56 pm »
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I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).
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« Reply #126 on: January 06, 2012, 07:42:45 pm »
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I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.
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« Reply #127 on: January 09, 2012, 04:14:53 pm »
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I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.
They're not. The old TN-8 has about 30,000 Memphis blacks. TN-9 has about about 350,000. And Tanner never had a competitive race. Even in 1994.
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« Reply #128 on: January 10, 2012, 01:28:53 am »
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Washington is the maximum Republicans could theoretically get. Arizona actually is not the maximum Democrats could theoretically get. Both maps include some parts that are actually quite sensible, some parts that make no sense outside of partisan gerrymandering, and some parts that make no sense whatsoever.

Where are the parts that make no sense whatsoever in Washington?

I do see them in Arizona, mostly in the Republican districts where only Republican districts could be drawn anyway, yet still insane things happened. Like Florence.
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« Reply #129 on: January 10, 2012, 05:43:06 am »
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Washington is the maximum Republicans could theoretically get. Arizona actually is not the maximum Democrats could theoretically get. Both maps include some parts that are actually quite sensible, some parts that make no sense outside of partisan gerrymandering, and some parts that make no sense whatsoever.

Where are the parts that make no sense whatsoever in Washington?

I do see them in Arizona, mostly in the Republican districts where only Republican districts could be drawn anyway, yet still insane things happened. Like Florence.
Wenatchee? That ridiculous first district? Oh wait, those are the parts that make no sense outside of partisan gerrymandering. The parts that make no sense whatsoever are the split of Seattle, the three-way split of Tacoma, and when I wrote that I was thinking of the three way split of the Eastside as well - but that was done to distribute congressional contenders onto the districts.

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« Reply #130 on: January 10, 2012, 08:40:13 am »
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Hmm. Cohen gets a blacker district and he loses most of his Jewish constituents.
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« Reply #131 on: January 10, 2012, 09:53:36 am »
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It's hard to tell exactly where the lines are, but it appears he's losing most of his white constituents, Jewish or otherwise. There aren't that many Jews in metro Memphis anyway, and half of them live in Germantown, and so, are already not in Steve's district. At most, the old TN-9 is 2% Jewish. The GOP is obviously trying to pack the blacks as tight as possible to keep TN-8 GOP. It was a very safe Dem district (at the House level, anyway) until 2010. And Fincher's a really bad candidate. If this map passes, half the new 8th will be metro Memphis, which will mean that Fincher will be toast. We'll get somebody more like Marsha, who knows how to speak to a suburban constituency. I really want to see the new lines. I'll be pissed if Cohen isn't my Rep anymore.
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« Reply #132 on: January 10, 2012, 10:29:15 am »
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How can Cohen lose that many people? He needs to gain 90k, net. 30odd k of that is Frayser. I don't think there were more than 60k worth of Blacks in Blackburn's district - maybe he's gaining some southeastern suburban areas that are more likely to become Black in the future than the remaining White sections in the center of town, though.
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« Reply #133 on: January 10, 2012, 11:07:18 am »
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You have got to love how TN-04 wraps around Chattanooga to suck up some of uber GOP Bradley County to the east. Even I would not have had the guts to draw that. Smiley The Pubs just don't trust those rural Middle Tennessee voters much, and wanted to render them toothless, even if they revert to their previously "bad" voting habits.
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« Reply #134 on: January 10, 2012, 12:07:23 pm »
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I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.
They're not. The old TN-8 has about 30,000 Memphis blacks. TN-9 has about about 350,000. And Tanner never had a competitive race. Even in 1994.

That would precisely constitute 2 pieces. It is quite telling that the Democrats 10 years ago chose to split Memphis like so while pushing the existing TN-9 into the suburbs.

Fincher certainly would not be interested in campaigning in that 89% Obama territory.
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« Reply #135 on: January 10, 2012, 12:25:36 pm »
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I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.
They're not. The old TN-8 has about 30,000 Memphis blacks. TN-9 has about about 350,000. And Tanner never had a competitive race. Even in 1994.

That would precisely constitute 2 pieces. It is quite telling that the Democrats 10 years ago chose to split Memphis like so while pushing the existing TN-9 into the suburbs.

Fincher certainly would not be interested in campaigning in that 89% Obama territory.
The SE suburbs of the old TN-9 are the black flight suburbs. It's our version of Clayton, GA or Prince William, MD. And as one would expect, they're uber Democratic. If you want to read a 350,000 to 30,000 split as a "crack", that's your excessive hyperbole. Pardon the Dems for creating a logical district instead of packing as many blacks in as possible. If you want to talk about who represents whom, at the moment, Marsha almost certainly has more Shelby blacks than Fincher, but whatever. You're not interested in facts. You're interested in creating a paranoid narrative.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 12:27:54 pm by memphis »Logged

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« Reply #136 on: January 10, 2012, 01:52:12 pm »
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The SE suburbs of the old TN-9 are the black flight suburbs. It's our version of Clayton, GA or Prince William, MD. And as one would expect, they're uber Democratic. If you want to read a 350,000 to 30,000 split as a "crack", that's your excessive hyperbole. Pardon the Dems for creating a logical district instead of packing as many blacks in as possible. If you want to talk about who represents whom, at the moment, Marsha almost certainly has more Shelby blacks than Fincher, but whatever. You're not interested in facts. You're interested in creating a paranoid narrative.

Absolutely correct, it's very clear from just looking at the map that Memphis was not split in half or anything. TN-8 barely went into the city limits in the old map.
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« Reply #137 on: January 10, 2012, 02:25:42 pm »
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I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.
They're not. The old TN-8 has about 30,000 Memphis blacks. TN-9 has about about 350,000. And Tanner never had a competitive race. Even in 1994.

That would precisely constitute 2 pieces. It is quite telling that the Democrats 10 years ago chose to split Memphis like so while pushing the existing TN-9 into the suburbs.

Fincher certainly would not be interested in campaigning in that 89% Obama territory.
The SE suburbs of the old TN-9 are the black flight suburbs. It's our version of Clayton, GA or Prince William, MD. And as one would expect, they're uber Democratic. If you want to read a 350,000 to 30,000 split as a "crack", that's your excessive hyperbole. Pardon the Dems for creating a logical district instead of packing as many blacks in as possible. If you want to talk about who represents whom, at the moment, Marsha almost certainly has more Shelby blacks than Fincher, but whatever. You're not interested in facts. You're interested in creating a paranoid narrative.

What is the logic in excluding 1 heavily Democratic area inside a city for 1 heavily Democratic area outside a city?

And while you are at it, what is the logic in splitting Davidson County and connecting a section with Germantown, and, as you put it, putting Shelby blacks in a Williamson County district?
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« Reply #138 on: January 10, 2012, 03:19:36 pm »
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I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.
They're not. The old TN-8 has about 30,000 Memphis blacks. TN-9 has about about 350,000. And Tanner never had a competitive race. Even in 1994.

That would precisely constitute 2 pieces. It is quite telling that the Democrats 10 years ago chose to split Memphis like so while pushing the existing TN-9 into the suburbs.

Fincher certainly would not be interested in campaigning in that 89% Obama territory.
The SE suburbs of the old TN-9 are the black flight suburbs. It's our version of Clayton, GA or Prince William, MD. And as one would expect, they're uber Democratic. If you want to read a 350,000 to 30,000 split as a "crack", that's your excessive hyperbole. Pardon the Dems for creating a logical district instead of packing as many blacks in as possible. If you want to talk about who represents whom, at the moment, Marsha almost certainly has more Shelby blacks than Fincher, but whatever. You're not interested in facts. You're interested in creating a paranoid narrative.

What is the logic in excluding 1 heavily Democratic area inside a city for 1 heavily Democratic area outside a city?

And while you are at it, what is the logic in splitting Davidson County and connecting a section with Germantown, and, as you put it, putting Shelby blacks in a Williamson County district?
Because the suburban blacks in the SE are much more integrated into the city than the poor souls stuck in Frayser, who de facto live in their own Dirty South small town. There's very little tying Frayser to Memphis other than a municipal boundary. You certainly don't feel like you're in the city should you have the misfortune to drive down Thomas Street all the way up there. It's a marshy slum down by the river several miles from anywhere. The SE suburbs have commerce and a lot more interaction with the "real" parts of the city. In any case, I believe Cohen ended up with the SE simply because Marsha didn't want them. Not that she's be endangered, but it's just not her interest.
Giving Cohen Millington, while denying him, East Memphis is an even bigger crime. Millington may as well be in Kentucky. There's no community of interest under the new plan at all. The old map made a lot more sense. You had an urban district, #9, a suburban district #7, and a rural district, #8. The new map is just a partisan mess.
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« Reply #139 on: January 10, 2012, 11:58:05 pm »
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LOL I just looked up the Wikipedia article on Frayser. LOL at the pic they have. Doesn't look very urban to say the least.

I'm surprised though that the suburbs and exurbs supposedly haven't reached northwest Shelby County like Millington when they've grown so much to the eastern areas.
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« Reply #140 on: January 11, 2012, 05:56:20 am »
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LOL I just looked up the Wikipedia article on Frayser. LOL at the pic they have. Doesn't look very urban to say the least.

I'm surprised though that the suburbs and exurbs supposedly haven't reached northwest Shelby County like Millington when they've grown so much to the eastern areas.
You need a very fast-growing metro to grow in all directions alike. Memphis has been solid for decades but never really exploding. As long as people have a choice, the direction that was always "undesirable" = poor Black will see relatively little redevelopment.
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« Reply #141 on: January 11, 2012, 10:49:28 am »
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LOL I just looked up the Wikipedia article on Frayser. LOL at the pic they have. Doesn't look very urban to say the least.

I'm surprised though that the suburbs and exurbs supposedly haven't reached northwest Shelby County like Millington when they've grown so much to the eastern areas.

Outside of Downtown, Memphis doesn't have an urban feel. We're all about front yards and big oak trees. Frayser was built as a white flight suburb in the 1950s. People didn't want an urban landscape. They wanted "the country." Half of people in Memphis, black and white, are rural folks from Mississippi and Arkansas, who were displaced when agriculture was mechanized in the mid 20th century. And even back then, Frayser wasn't a fancy suburb. It has always had a reputation for being what I'll politely call blue collar. Well, by now it's more "black slum" than "blue collar," but whatever. It's just a bunch of little crackerbox houses out away from the big bad city. In any case, it's half-rural by design.
As far as our suburban growth goes, nobody with the means to choose where they live is going to be selecting Frayser or Millington. They're just not desirable areas to say the least. Same story for West Memphis, over in Arkansas. I'm sure there are comparable areas on the fringe on any major city. There has been pretty good growth, by percent, lately in Tipton County for those same people who really want "the country" and are willing to drive an hour into town, but it's still extremely rural out there. It's not even on the radar of most people.
If you take a look at a map, you'll see that Highway 72 runs east to west right through the middle of town. All the nice neighborhoods in Memphis, and I do mean ALL of them, are within a few miles north or south of 72. And it doesn't really matter too much if you're downtown or all the way out by the Fayette County line. You want to live off of 72. Out in East Memphis, where I live (near the eastern 240 loop) is the primary business district for Memphis. Commerce got scared and moved out here from Downtown after MLK was shot and the riots and so forth several decades back. 72 has the big office buildings and the nice neighborhoods with easy 5 minute commutes are just off it.
Of course, there are suburban areas with white people not off 72. And they're much cheaper per sqaure foot, so they have that going for them. But they are ticking timebombs. They have a shelf life of about 20 years before the neighborhood "changes" and all the white people have to sell in a panic. Which, of course, sends property values in those areas into the gutter. DeSoto County is going to be such a nightmare in the 2020s.
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« Reply #142 on: December 26, 2012, 08:15:40 pm »
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Just for kicks, I did a Pub gerrymander light for TN, which creates a nice competitive CD for the TN-05, which should make the AZ "non-partisan" redistricting commission proud. Its underlying leitmotif is that it keeps the black community of Nashville together (a few inner white liberal precincts are excised in partial exchange), and does but one split of Davidson County. It also makes sense in other ways I think, with the Nashville metro area divided between 2 CD's.

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« Reply #143 on: December 30, 2012, 12:10:33 am »
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That's a good gerrymander, and yes it is very comparable to what was done in the Phoenix area (the Tucson district is perfectly fine). Marsha keeps her head down mostly so she would be safe but Cooper is a powerhouse. Though that could become not safe by the end of the decade (with most of the middle class black growth happening in Rutherford county though there might be enough in Antioch too, which you drew into Coopers district). Also Nashville is becoming sort of a hipster haven so I don't know what effect that would have.
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« Reply #144 on: January 01, 2013, 02:18:48 pm »
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Just for kicks, I did a Pub gerrymander light for TN, which creates a nice competitive CD for the TN-05, which should make the AZ "non-partisan" redistricting commission proud. Its underlying leitmotif is that it keeps the black community of Nashville together (a few inner white liberal precincts are excised in partial exchange), and does but one split of Davidson County. It also makes sense in other ways I think, with the Nashville metro area divided between 2 CD's.



 A district that McCain only won by a point in Tennessee would probably be pretty safe for moderate to conservative Democrat. 
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« Reply #145 on: January 02, 2013, 08:07:29 pm »

Just for kicks, I did a Pub gerrymander light for TN, which creates a nice competitive CD for the TN-05, which should make the AZ "non-partisan" redistricting commission proud. Its underlying leitmotif is that it keeps the black community of Nashville together (a few inner white liberal precincts are excised in partial exchange), and does but one split of Davidson County. It also makes sense in other ways I think, with the Nashville metro area divided between 2 CD's.



Your western TN and Nashville metro area looks similar to my whole county version from a year ago.

Here's my whole county version of the map. All districts are within 0.5% of the ideal, and the maximum deviation is 2506. CD 9 is entirely within Shelby and is 56.0% BVAP. At least one county must be split around Nashville to stay within the population range, and Davidson was split since it is the largest.



Since we've been discussing erosity as part of a series of factors, I decided to examine my plan from that perspective. This is what the link map of TN looks like.



The plan has seven regions (2 divided counties) and at the regional level splits 63 links for its erosity score. That increases to 68 for the internal splits of Shelby and Davidson, or 69 if I use Torie's split of 5 and 6 instead. The maximum range for the plan is 0.8% at the regional level and 0.59% at the district level. Microchops of less than 0.5% of a district can be used to get exact equality if desired.

I've done a little rearranging to see if either the erosity or range could be improved while keeping the plan at seven regions. This version has an erosity of 60 at the regional level and 63 including county splits. The range goes to 0.7% by region and 0.52% at the district level. Since it is better on these measures and there are the same number of county splits this would be Pareto preferred to my plan of a year ago.



I wasn't drawing it to give a particular partisan result, just following the river and major roads to the extent possible across Nashville. My CD 5 is 54.1% McCain and CD 6 is 47.0% McCain. Perhaps Torie would like to see if that tweaks as well to give his desired gerrymander.
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« Reply #146 on: January 06, 2013, 01:48:23 pm »
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Oh Muon2 your map above might work as a Pub gerry-lite, but I must say my tweaked map below appears to me to be superior to your algorithmic map. TN-5 is 50.0% McCain, 48.8% Obama, and TN-06 is 57.3% McCain, 41.6% Obama.



Your cut of Davidson appears to slice the black community by the way. I assiduously avoided that in my map (the NW black node is entirely in TN-05, albeit a handful of substantial black minority precincts in the geographically separated by white precincts SE node are in TN-06). And notice how it keeps downtown Nashville whole, and uses that lake as a barrier on the east side. Natural barriers are there to be used where possible - not ignored.




What do you think?  I am still a little confused btw what the real purpose of the regional overlay is in your formula, above and beyond county cut containment. Is to to take cognizance of metro areas, and keeping them whole, ultimately, or is there more? Is it a way to contain erosity, or limit erosity to where it ties together "regional" communities of interest?  In any event, everyone "knows" the regions of Tennessee, including most of its citizens, and my map took that into account. I like there being one middle TN rural CD, TN-04 (with rural TN-07 being 75% Middle TN, and 25% West TN by necessity to equalize population), and two CD's that cover the Nashville metro region, and no more, and fit like a glove over that metro area. That is how it should be.  I also tried to limit just visual erosity, and move towards rectangular squarish shapes. And I looked at road ties in East TN, and moved stuff around a bit accordingly, including moving Sevier County into the Knoxville CD, where it properly belongs really, rather than TN-01.

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« Reply #147 on: January 08, 2013, 10:37:59 am »

Oh Muon2 your map above might work as a Pub gerry-lite, but I must say my tweaked map below appears to me to be superior to your algorithmic map. TN-5 is 50.0% McCain, 48.8% Obama, and TN-06 is 57.3% McCain, 41.6% Obama.



Your cut of Davidson appears to slice the black community by the way. I assiduously avoided that in my map (the NW black node is entirely in TN-05, albeit a handful of substantial black minority precincts in the geographically separated by white precincts SE node are in TN-06). And notice how it keeps downtown Nashville whole, and uses that lake as a barrier on the east side. Natural barriers are there to be used where possible - not ignored.




What do you think?  I am still a little confused btw what the real purpose of the regional overlay is in your formula, above and beyond county cut containment. Is to to take cognizance of metro areas, and keeping them whole, ultimately, or is there more? Is it a way to contain erosity, or limit erosity to where it ties together "regional" communities of interest?  In any event, everyone "knows" the regions of Tennessee, including most of its citizens, and my map took that into account. I like there being one middle TN rural CD, TN-04 (with rural TN-07 being 75% Middle TN, and 25% West TN by necessity to equalize population), and two CD's that cover the Nashville metro region, and no more, and fit like a glove over that metro area. That is how it should be.  I also tried to limit just visual erosity, and move towards rectangular squarish shapes. And I looked at road ties in East TN, and moved stuff around a bit accordingly, including moving Sevier County into the Knoxville CD, where it properly belongs really, rather than TN-01.


With some tweaks your plan is an appropriate one to compare to mine. I'll start by removing microchops which can always be added at the end if exact equality is required. Then, by the regional approach you have essentially placed the three eastern CDs into one region. To make that clear I have removed the chop in Lincoln county by putting all of Marshall into CD 4. I also removed the chops in Anderson and Claiborne by moving Rhea into CD 4. In the Knoxville region I then made the two required chops in a way to minimize internal erosity.



Overall the plan has a range of 0.8% at the region level and 0.7% at the district level. There is an erosity of 42 at the region level and 54 at the district level. Compared to my plan yours increases the range and county splits but improves erosity. That's an appropriate Pareto shift so both could be considered. A plan is excluded only if one can make another plan that improves on any one variable (splits, range, erosity) while make the others no worse.
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« Reply #148 on: January 08, 2013, 02:29:59 pm »
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Muon2, how did you define regions for TN (population driven, or historically driven, or both?), and the road splits only count when a CD splits a region?  I still don't quite get the mechanical aspect of regions in your methodology.

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« Reply #149 on: January 09, 2013, 12:44:45 am »

Muon2, how did you define regions for TN (population driven, or historically driven, or both?), and the road splits only count when a CD splits a region?  I still don't quite get the mechanical aspect of regions in your methodology.



A region is a connected set of counties that has a population nearly equal to a whole number of districts. The use of roads determines connectedness, and the severed connections also serve to measure erosity. When a county is split within a region then each piece is treated as if it were a separate county for connections and erosity.

The main idea is to recognize that split counties (or cities) and erosity both point at potential gerrymandering and generally point away from maintaining communities of interest. My goal is to create a mechanism whereby those two factors can be balanced against each other and balanced against population equality.
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