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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Tennessee  (Read 22473 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2011, 03:25:07 pm »
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Cooper is upset about the RRH plan to crack Nashville in 3.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110829/NEWS02/308290043/Nashville-district-could-divided-three-ways-say-Cooper-Dean
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« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2011, 03:54:40 pm »
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You think its a trial balloon to determine the reactions of Nashville swing voters to such a proposal?

Its certainly possibe to divide Cooper's seat into at least two theoretically 'safe enough' Republican seats (i.e. 55% McCain vote as a minimum).
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« Reply #27 on: August 29, 2011, 04:49:08 pm »
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It could turn bad for the Republicans if they aren't careful. They need to make sure TVA counties don't end up with the Nashville districts if this is their plan. I would say they should make the Memphis district even safer, by adding the blacks in the surrounding rural/small town areas into the Memphis distict. That way you free up more of the Memphis suburbs for the 8th, which gets added in with the TVA areas. Pretty sure that would work, no?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #28 on: August 29, 2011, 05:33:08 pm »
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Here's the map, sbane.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/993/tennessee-considers-ketronmander

I don't know if its a reality, and frankly, I'm not a huge fan of 8-1, but regardless its cool to see people's work reflected. Torie of course had that WSJ article.
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« Reply #29 on: August 29, 2011, 06:08:59 pm »
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Here's the map, sbane.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/993/tennessee-considers-ketronmander

I don't know if its a reality, and frankly, I'm not a huge fan of 8-1, but regardless its cool to see people's work reflected. Torie of course had that WSJ article.

That's a formidable map. Definitely pretty close to what I would have done. Maybe I'll go work on that now.
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Torie
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« Reply #30 on: September 18, 2011, 03:55:22 pm »
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My map which I drew before looking at the published map is kind of similar. TN-05 can be made a toss-up CD with near total safety I think. Yes, a toss-up CD. Don't trust the McCain numbers in TN. That really inflates what is really the partisan baseline here I think. Just look at the "average" two party vote figures if you don't believe me (52%-48% Dem).

So I would not recommend doing more. The problem here is that TN-06 just doesn't have the uber GOP territory around it that one would like, so it can't do much; it just isn't possible to really Pub it up. So it just takes some marginal precincts in Davidson, while TN-07 takes some of the heavy Dem ones, thereby pushing TN-05 into heavy GOP territory in the eastern suburbs.  I get nervous when the McCain percentages fall below about 58%, and prefer 59%.  So TN-07 has to do the heavy lifting, and it can do quite a bit, if like I did you really Pub it up as much as you can before you move it into Nashville. The way I drew it is not an accident. Ditto TN-06. The game was to Pub them both up, without creating a ridiculous looking map.

The only way to do more with some safety is to bring TN-04 into play (it's 65% McCain), but having that rural CD joining the  Nashville chop has me nervous (remember that a Tory Dem used to represent that CD until 2010), and would require radical changes from the existing map. So I just said no.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 04:08:09 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #31 on: September 18, 2011, 03:57:25 pm »
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I suppose you have the wrong image?
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« Reply #32 on: September 18, 2011, 04:04:43 pm »
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I suppose you have the wrong image?

It was a work in progress. Be patient!  Tongue
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« Reply #33 on: September 18, 2011, 04:11:15 pm »
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I suppose you have the wrong image?

It was a work in progress. Be patient!  Tongue
Ah, I figured it was a copy-and-paste issue.

If you're moving it to just 51% McCain... what's the point? You force the Dems to spend money there maybe once or twice in the cycle; that's about it. Unless you know where the next wave of suburb construction is likely to occur... now there's a new (new to me, anyhow) idea for pubbie 'manders!

As to drawing Memphis-to-Jackson (as you didn't)... it's just stupid from a Republican perspective, I think. The parts of Memphis you excise have much better Dem growth potential than the rural black belt.
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« Reply #34 on: September 18, 2011, 04:17:51 pm »
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The point is to keep the Pubbie incumbents safe, and "leash" Gordon of course!  How many times do I have to tell you that I like "leashed" Dems. Smiley

Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost. The Pubs gain half a seat. Why not?

Drawing lines planning on where the new uber Pubbie exurbs are projected to be built is an old game Lewis. Willy Brown used to chat about that one 30 years ago. But you are probably too young to remember Willy Brown. Tongue  It was also an issue with the CA redistricting commission actually, and I think was even mentioned by the AZ one.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 04:20:42 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #35 on: September 18, 2011, 04:19:10 pm »
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Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost.
Probably, yeah. Well, less than half, but still at no cost.
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« Reply #36 on: September 18, 2011, 04:21:17 pm »
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Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost.
Probably, yeah. Well, less than half, but still at no cost.

Half Lewis. Please don't nickel and dime me. LOL.

Now let's see if the Pubs get greedy and do a dummymander.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 04:23:52 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #37 on: September 18, 2011, 04:22:43 pm »
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Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost.
Probably, yeah. Well, less than half, but still at no cost.

Half Lewis. Please don't nickel and dime me. LOL.
I'll give you a quarter for it.
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« Reply #38 on: September 18, 2011, 04:50:44 pm »
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Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost.
Probably, yeah. Well, less than half, but still at no cost.

Half Lewis. Please don't nickel and dime me. LOL.
I'll give you a quarter for it.

Do I get my four bits now,  rather than the measly two that you condescended to award me Lewis, you cheapskate you?  

« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 08:38:11 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #39 on: September 18, 2011, 05:10:27 pm »
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Can you show me a closeup of Nashville please? Hope you didn't put me in Blackburn's district. She is a little off. Though she is pretty hot. I'd hit that.
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« Reply #40 on: September 18, 2011, 05:18:12 pm »
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Can you show me a closeup of Nashville please? Hope you didn't put me in Blackburn's district. She is a little off. Though she is pretty hot. I'd hit that.

Smiley  I understand. I think Marsha got Al Gore as a constituent.   Tongue


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« Reply #41 on: September 18, 2011, 05:27:42 pm »
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Well, looks like I am in her district. I guess I live on the "wrong" side of Nolensville Pike. Tongue

Why not put the southwest corner of Davidson County, the Bellevue area, in Blackburn's district in exchange for some areas of central Nashville, or some Black neighborhoods of Nashville which are also in Blackburn's district from what I can tell. CD-6 might be a little overpubbified.
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« Reply #42 on: September 18, 2011, 06:57:15 pm »
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Well, looks like I am in her district. I guess I live on the "wrong" side of Nolensville Pike. Tongue

Why not put the southwest corner of Davidson County, the Bellevue area, in Blackburn's district in exchange for some areas of central Nashville, or some Black neighborhoods of Nashville which are also in Blackburn's district from what I can tell. CD-6 might be a little overpubbified.

That exchange would just make TN-06 more Dem (if it picked up black precincts in exchange), and TN-07 more Pubbie, and TN-07 is already at 59.2% McCain.  TN-06 is at 58.8% McCain, and I don't want to go any lower, particularly for a freshman who has been given a largely new CD other than her home county of Rutherford. I consider 59% the sweet spot.  I just don't trust these inflated McCain numbers, although granted that is less true for suburban territory. I am trying to guess what the Pubbies might do, and a drop of 7 Pubbie points in TN-07 and 4 points in TN-06 seems like about right to me, all things considered. More would be a reach.

I also really didn't want to push TN-05 farther out into rural territory which while GOP, can swing strongly to a reasonable Dem incumbent, as well as mess up the map (I dumped one rural county into it as it was (well actually 3 really), because it/they was/were pretty Pubbie and within rather easy reach). It is better just to select which precincts one wants to pick up in Nashville, and tailor make your PVI numbers.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 07:05:37 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #43 on: September 18, 2011, 07:38:09 pm »
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Well, if the numbers are like that then it's probably the right move. I thought you were trying to avoid the black areas with Blackburn's district, but it's not so. And yeah, 58-59% should be enough. And Cooper might not lose, but he will have to become more conservative, yes. Also to answer Lewis's question, you seem to have put the areas that should have more suburban growth into Cooper's district. But you also put the areas where the Black middle class will move in into his district as well.
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« Reply #44 on: September 18, 2011, 07:59:45 pm »
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Well, if the numbers are like that then it's probably the right move. I thought you were trying to avoid the black areas with Blackburn's district, but it's not so. And yeah, 58-59% should be enough. And Cooper might not lose, but he will have to become more conservative, yes. Also to answer Lewis's question, you seem to have put the areas that should have more suburban growth into Cooper's district. But you also put the areas where the Black middle class will move in into his district as well.

I put up my matrix chart above, and below just for you. You can see the pattern. Part of it I guess, is that I don't want TN-06 and TN-07 to be way more Dem then their Pubbie colleagues. That just doesn't "feel" right - particularly since they are taking such a hit to their numbers as it is. The bump up in the GOP % in TN-03 is rather odd isn't it?  I didn't expect that, but I guess TN-02 and TN-04 took some of its more Dem territory, relatively speaking, and TN-04 made up for it, and then a tad, by where it expanded elsewhere to the west.

I didn't use PVI's for this chart, because in TN, I consider them misleading. You've got to admit that my matrix charts are just gorgeous no? Tongue



Oh, the partisan numbers on the Dave Bradlee software are screwed up for TN-03 for some reason. It is about 5% percentage points too high for McCain vis a vis the actual numbers. That explains it. So I am adjusting for that. The chart below for TN-03 should be  more accurate.

« Last Edit: September 18, 2011, 08:38:58 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #45 on: September 18, 2011, 08:20:33 pm »
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TN-3 is quite odd. Not like it matters though. TN-6,7 and 8 around 60% seem about right. I wonder if the pubbies in the legislature realize they need to keep things more GOP in these seats to hold all of their gains. I wonder how pretty their matrix is. Tongue
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« Reply #46 on: September 18, 2011, 09:29:58 pm »
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TN-3 is quite odd. Not like it matters though. TN-6,7 and 8 around 60% seem about right. I wonder if the pubbies in the legislature realize they need to keep things more GOP in these seats to hold all of their gains. I wonder how pretty their matrix is. Tongue

It was a Bradlee software data entry error of some sort as it turns out. See above. Bradlee seems to have "lost" tens of thousands of voters in TN-03. 
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« Reply #47 on: September 19, 2011, 03:22:30 am »
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Alright. Here you are.

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« Reply #48 on: September 19, 2011, 12:22:55 pm »
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Thanks Lewis, but the price has gone up to five bits now. Smiley  Drip, drip, drip. I had a little problem:  I had those Memphis suburban precincts switched out of TN-07 put in TN-03, rather than TN-08!  Tongue  Sky blue and cyan just look so similar!  So the map needed a bit of work (like about 70,000 in population worth of work), leading to well, TN-05 sliding into the "lean GOP" zone! As the pawns moved around, TN-07 picked up about 50 basis points, which I promptly dumped right back into TN-05.  I also picked up another 50 cheap basis points by moving TN-05 to the south rather than the east. TN-04 puts its oar in the water a bit to help out. Hey TN-05 even looks better too now! Life is beautiful. I can just feel Cooper's pain. 53% of his new CD is now new territory for him.

One other thing, for those who want the right numbers when they use the DRA. The missing votes are all in Hamilton County. So in whatever district you put Hamilton County (presumably TN-03), add 31,931 votes to the McCain total and 35,531 votes to the Obama total.





« Last Edit: September 19, 2011, 01:44:17 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #49 on: September 19, 2011, 12:34:35 pm »
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Thanks Lewis, but the price has gone up to five bits now. Smiley  Drip, drip, drip. I had a little problem:  I had those Memphis suburban precincts in TN-03!  Tongue  Sky blue and cyan just look so similar!  
Your own fault for changing colors. -_- (Though default 5 and 18 are much too similar.)

I assume you have all the incumbents in the right districts? (I really wouldn't know, lol.) Also, since neither Fincher nor Blackburn really wants the remaining Memphis suburbs, maybe they should split them, insulating both from a primary challenge from there. Only if it can be done without upsetting the partisan balances, of course.

Eastern districts look good. I would ask why the two first ones are so far off optimal population, except that I already know the answer. Those huge precincts just can be a pain in the ass.
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