US House Redistricting: Tennessee

[Torie]

Thanks Lewis, but the price has gone up to five bits now.  Drip, drip, drip. I had a little problem:  I had those Memphis suburban precincts in TN-03!    Sky blue and cyan just look so similar!  

Your own fault for changing colors. -_- (Though default 5 and 18 are much too similar.)

I assume you have all the incumbents in the right districts? (I really wouldn't know, lol.) Also, since neither Fincher nor Blackburn really wants the remaining Memphis suburbs, maybe they should split them, insulating both from a primary challenge from there. Only if it can be done without upsetting the partisan balances, of course.

Eastern districts look good. I would ask why the two first ones are so far off optimal population, except that I already know the answer. Those huge precincts just can be a pain in the ass.

Yes, I checked all of that except for Fincher. I suppose I should check out where he lives; I didn't before because he had not really lost any territory. Now he has.  And yes the precincts are big, which led to a couple of splits that I would not have otherwise made (like Oak Ridge). So what I did is try to match the over/under numbers between two adjacent CD's, so some precinct can be easily chopped.

I really don't want to split the Memphis burbs between two Pubbie CD's. It would make the map butt ugly, and erode some the Pubbie precentage in TN-07. That is because the two counties directly to the east of Memphis are kind of marginal, and "marginal" is a dirty word when it comes to anything put into TN-07. Fincher should just stop being a crybaby. The Memphis burbs hardly dominate his CD. He should just suck it up - and shut up.

[minionofmidas]

erode some the Pubbie precentage in TN-07. That is because the two counties directly to the east of Memphis are kind of marginal, and "marginal" is a dirty word when it comes to anything put into TN-07.

Ah right. Makes sense. Lots of rural Blacks there.

[Torie]

erode some the Pubbie precentage in TN-07. That is because the two counties directly to the east of Memphis are kind of marginal, and "marginal" is a dirty word when it comes to anything put into TN-07.

Ah right. Makes sense. Lots of rural Blacks there.

Fincher by the way lives in Crockett County. So life is beautiful - yet again.  

And you can see why if the Dems do as poorly in 2012 as they did in 2010, Cooper is in pretty serious trouble (and he campaigned pretty hard in 2010), given that TN-05 has moved 10.3% in the Pubbie direction:

[Torie]

OK, I know I am beating this drum until it has no sound, but I "found" another 20 basis points, and just can't help but share the "good news."  I screwed around with Bedford County to "find" them. Cooper is going to have to have an immediate epiphany, and become a hard core blue dog. Maybe he should get some pointers from that guy from Lexington Kentucky, and pour a little Boren in it for good measure. He is going to have to fight like heck to survive. I give him a 1 in 3 chance. And I suspect something like this map is probably going to happen. Get a clue Charlie Cook! Of course, given some of the mappies we have seen actually enacted ... well, whatever.

Gosh I am getting rather good at this I think. No more than one county split between each set of two adjacent CD's, and no municipal splits anywhere, except where the uber large precincts forced me into it - except of course for Nashville, which of course was the point. So I didn't cheat - much. And not much erosity either, unlike the current "disgusting" Dem gerry. It was fun to toss that one out. I could pick up 10 basis points for TN-08 by flipping two precincts in Selby County (still respecting municipal lines), but decided that enough is enough. TN-08 is not going to fall to the Dems any time soon.

Anyway, I'm done with TN - finally!

[Brittain33]

How could anyone forget that Fincher is from the town of Frog Jump?

[Platypus]

Non-partisan:



CD1 (Blue): +80; 92.9% White; 70.9% McCain
CD2 (Orange): -84; 86.7% White; 64.6% McCain
CD3 (Lime): -36; 81.0% White; 65.7% McCain
CD4 (Red): +40; 93.7% White; 67.9% McCain
CD5 (Yellow): -36; 61.2% White; 57.3% Obama
CD6 (Dark Green): -40; 82.0% White; 65.5% McCain
CD7 (Black): -18; 83.6% White; 61.6% McCain
CD8 (Violet): +56; 63.0% White; 55.5% McCain
CD9 (Pink): +36; 50.9% Black; 66.3% Obama

Summary:

1 slim-majority Black district
8 strong-majority (55%+) White districts
1 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) district
1 strong democrat (55%+ Obama) district
1 strong republican (55%+ McCain) district (note: I think this'd actually be a swing seat)
6 safe republican (60%+ McCain) districts

Max. deviation 84/100, average deviation 47.111/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 7 county splits.

[Platypus]

Democratic gerrymander (still needs some fiddling)



Same colour scheme as above.
CD1: +80; 92.9% White; 70.9% McCain
CD2: +19; 68.1% White; 51.2% Obama
CD3: +69; 82.4% White; 68.5% McCain
CD4: -302; 91.9% White; 69.1% McCain
CD5: +77; 68.2% White; 50.4% Obama
CD6: +79; 87.3% White; 67.5% McCain
CD7: +27; 89.9% White; 66.1% McCain
CD8: -28; 61.0% White; 50.2% Obama
CD9: -23; 50.8% Black; 64.1% Obama

Summary:

1 slim-majority Black district
8 strong majority (55%+) White districts
1 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) district
3 lean democrat (50%+ Obama) districts
5 safe republican (60%+ McCain) districts

Max. deviation 302/100, average deviation 78.222/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 36 county splits.

I won't be doing a GOP gerrymander, as it's already been done so well, and I won't be fixing this Democratic one up, but feel free to fiddle away if you want to use this as a base.

[Torie]

Here's the map, sbane.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/993/tennessee-considers-ketronmander

I don't know if its a reality, and frankly, I'm not a huge fan of 8-1, but regardless its cool to see people's work reflected. Torie of course had that WSJ article.

That map gains but one point for TN-05 vis a vis my map due to its multiple county splits, precinct cherry picking, some additional erosity and so forth. The balance of his additional total of 3.2% Pubbie points gained (another 2.1%) is gained by shoving the McCain percentages in TN-06 and TN-07 down to levels that I think are unwise.  Sometimes less is more.

And below is a map that does more county splits, and is uglier (but not hideous), which goes in to carve out the blacks in county seats with some restraint, but only some (yes it is a disgusting exercise - totally disgusting - but that seems to be the modus operandi these days, just gut the opposition any way you can, and screw any other considerations). If you want to go for the max, and really go for the gold, that might push up the McCain percentage in TN-05 by another 70 basis points, and if you are willing to cut the McCain percentage in TN-07 down to 58.5% McCain, then Cooper in TN-05 gets very close to road kill. As it is, in my judgment he only has about a 1 in 4 chance of winning in this election cycle. If one were willing to cut the McCain percentage down in TN-06 to 58.5% McCain, he becomes just about absolute road kill, and total road kill if you cut the McCain percentages down to 57.8 and 57.9 percent McCain per what the map the other chap did. All of the above combined, would make TN-05 about 57.6% McCain, 60 basis points higher than the other map.  

While it would probably be acceptable to cut TN-07 down to 58.0%-58.5% McCain (it is a pretty reliably polarized CD electorally speaking),  TN-06 is less so, and for that CD, I think it quite unwise in my judgment to cut it down below 59% McCain in the sense that it creates some very modest risk that something might go wrong. In any event, a 56.7% McCain TN-05 gets Cooper down to very close to absolute road kill. I view 57% McCain as probably close to certain that Cooper will be defeated. Anything much over 56% gets him down to about a 10% of surviving. In other words, in my matrix chart, when you hit 57% McCain for TN, that excel cell goes red.

Anyway, the map:

[jimrtex]

Alright. Here you are.

You wouldn't make a very good spy.

[Torie]

Well after what the Dems did in MD, I wanted to punish them a bit more. However, in looking at prior maps, there just isn't a culture of multiple county splits, and I didn't want to break with that tradition. It just might not sit too well. So I had two inconsistent goals. But I think I found a pretty good objective function given the constraints, and so came up with the below. You can see why I did what I did with TN-06 and TN-07 by looking at the two party splits rather than the McCain numbers in the two CD's. TN-06 has a higher McCain percentage, but a lower two party split number. Moreover, Marsha Blackburn (TN-07) is a seasoned veteran, and lives just across the county line from Davidson in Brentwood, so she should be just fine. The incumbent Diane Black (TN-06) is a newbie.

I think this is the best that can and should be done, and I did read on the internet from some pol that what is in play for TN-05 runs from 45% McCain to 55% McCain. This is the 55% plan. It hews to the but one county split between two CD's rule. I like it!

[Sbane]

Meh, this was likely to happen anyways. Blackburn should be fine as long as she stays generic R. I remember her being a little crazy back in the day, but she seems to have settled down. Or the pubbies doubled down on the crazy, and she isn't so noticeable anymore. Probably a combination of two. I would just like to add that the slice of Nashville you are giving her is swingy. It has a Trader Joes, and lots of Yoga places. Get what I am saying?

[Torie]

Meh, this was likely to happen anyways. Blackburn should be fine as long as she stays generic R. I remember her being a little crazy back in the day, but she seems to have settled down. Or the pubbies doubled down on the crazy, and she isn't so noticeable anymore. Probably a combination of two. I would just like to add that the slice of Nashville you are giving her is swingy. It has a Trader Joes, and lots of Yoga places. Get what I am saying?

Her slice of Davidson is all over the place. It's about 63.5% Obama, 36.5% McCain. Some of her precincts are over 90% Obama, and some over 60% McCain. There is not that much marginal territory. She takes in almost all of one of two nodes of blacks in Nashville. One precinct that is marginal (55% McCain), I did in my final changes move that 11,000 population precinct from her CD to TN-05 (right next to where you live actually). That precinct (colored in white below) may well be "swingy," (it's 14.5% black and in the transition zone and big) and may be trending Dem (particularly if the blacks there are moving east) as a wild guess.

[Sbane]

Belle Meade, my neighborhood (the area right to the north and east of Brentwood, and called Brentwood by the locals) and the Green Hills mall area is swingy. All those areas are in that district. The Black areas on the other hand are not swingable since they already vote Dem no matter what. Blacks are moving into northern Rutherford County and the extreme southeast part of Davidson. The newer areas in Antioch basically. No, you did not put those areas into her district. Like I said, generic R will win every time in this district. Lay off the crazy though.

[Sbane]

BTW, Bill Ketron, the guy likely to run against Cooper, thinks Sharia law is the biggest challenge facing Tennessee. Lol, he should do very well in Rutherford County.

[timothyinMD]

I don't know what's taking the Tennessee Republicans so long.  Tennessee is an easy draw.

8-1 map clean respectable map is so easy it's ridiculous





Davidson Co. doesn't need to been split 3 or 4 ways.

In my draw I split Davidson exactly in half 360,000 people in each district, and each half is 60.6% Obama.  Both districts as a whole are 54.6% McCain.  Cooper=gone

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I don't know what's taking the Tennessee Republicans so long.  Tennessee is an easy draw.

8-1 map clean respectable map is so easy it's ridiculous





Davidson Co. doesn't need to been split 3 or 4 ways.

In my draw I split Davidson exactly in half 360,000 people in each district, and each half is 60.6% Obama.  Both districts as a whole are 54.6% McCain.  Cooper=gone

This is your idea of a "clean" and "respectable" map? Granted, it's not a Maryland-style gerrymander, but it still destroys communities of interest (namely Nashville) for partisan gain.
There is no reason other than partisanship why Davidson County should not remain intact.

[Torie]

Ah, too much new territory in that map for the Pub incumbents, and at least Marsha Blackburn (unless she runs in TN-05 rather than TN-07), if not others, have been drawn out of their home. My map above does the job the way I think it is more likely to be done. My map went for the max without going over the edge (it was a very careful balancing test), but whether the Pubs will go so far as to make TN-05 a 55% McCain CD remains to be seen. They may be more cautious, to not get quite so close to the "responsible edge."

[timothyinMD]

Ah, too much new territory in that map for the Pub incumbents, and at least Marsha Blackburn (unless she runs in TN-05 rather than TN-07), if not others, have been drawn out of their home. My map above does the job the way I think it is more likely to be done. My map went for the max without going over the edge (it was a very careful balancing test), but whether the Pubs will go so far as to make TN-05 a 55% McCain CD remains to be seen. They may be more cautious, to not get quite so close to the "responsible edge."

Your pet name for Republicans is pretty creepy.  Pubbie?  Really?

I've never taken incumbent residency into account in any map I've drawn.  I don't care about incumbents


Splitting a city into two districts doesn't "destroy a community of interest."  It's a partisan play.  All of downtown Nashville is in the yellow district.    Let's compare my split of Davidson Co, and the Dems shreading of Baltimore City/Co and see which one is better..

[Miles]

Ah, too much new territory in that map for the Pub incumbents, and at least Marsha Blackburn (unless she runs in TN-05 rather than TN-07), if not others, have been drawn out of their home. My map above does the job the way I think it is more likely to be done. My map went for the max without going over the edge (it was a very careful balancing test), but whether the Pubs will go so far as to make TN-05 a 55% McCain CD remains to be seen. They may be more cautious, to not get quite so close to the "responsible edge."

Your pet name for Republicans is pretty creepy.  Pubbie?  Really?

I've never taken incumbent residency into account in any map I've drawn.  I don't care about incumbents

Torie's use of "Pubbie" used to annoy me, but now I don't mind it.

Your map is clean in that the districts are pretty compact.

[Torie]

Ah, too much new territory in that map for the Pub incumbents, and at least Marsha Blackburn (unless she runs in TN-05 rather than TN-07), if not others, have been drawn out of their home. My map above does the job the way I think it is more likely to be done. My map went for the max without going over the edge (it was a very careful balancing test), but whether the Pubs will go so far as to make TN-05 a 55% McCain CD remains to be seen. They may be more cautious, to not get quite so close to the "responsible edge."

Your pet name for Republicans is pretty creepy.  Pubbie?  Really?

I've never taken incumbent residency into account in any map I've drawn.  I don't care about incumbents


Splitting a city into two districts doesn't "destroy a community of interest."  It's a partisan play.  All of downtown Nashville is in the yellow district.    Let's compare my split of Davidson Co, and the Dems shreading of Baltimore City/Co and see which one is better..

I understand, but that is about all the map makers care about: taking care of incumbents of their own party is job one.

I trademarked the term "Pubbie." It's mine - all mine! 

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Splitting a city into two districts doesn't "destroy a community of interest."  It's a partisan play.  All of downtown Nashville is in the yellow district.    Let's compare my split of Davidson Co, and the Dems shreading of Baltimore City/Co and see which one is better..

This isn't about the Maryland gerrymander. I've already admitted that your map is far less egregious than the monstrosity that has been puked up by Maryland Democrats.

This is about you splitting the second-largest city in the state of Tennessee, which has formed the core of a Congressional district for decades, for no other purpose than partisan gain, and passing it off as "clean and respectable" (your very own words). That is the very definition of a gerrymander.

And yes, your map does destroy the community of interest that is the city of Nashville. Nashville residents would be far better served by one district encompassing the entire city than by two districts dominated by its politically polar opposite suburbs.

[minionofmidas]

It's also not clear that 54.6% McCain will do the trick of removing Cooper. Having two districts like that, then, runs the risk (not a large risk by any means, but it's there) of losing both districts. They won't want to take that.

The other reason why it takes so long is of course that Memphis Republicans really want to have their own district (or rather congressperson) - Blackburn has had primary challenges based on the issue.
Which also means that neither Fincher nor Blackburn are going to be overjoyed with taking all of the Republican parts of Shelby.

[timothyinMD]

Splitting a city into two districts doesn't "destroy a community of interest."  It's a partisan play.  All of downtown Nashville is in the yellow district.    Let's compare my split of Davidson Co, and the Dems shreading of Baltimore City/Co and see which one is better..

This isn't about the Maryland gerrymander. I've already admitted that your map is far less egregious than the monstrosity that has been puked up by Maryland Democrats.

This is about you splitting the second-largest city in the state of Tennessee, which has formed the core of a Congressional district for decades, for no other purpose than partisan gain, and passing it off as "clean and respectable" (your very own words). That is the very definition of a gerrymander.

And yes, your map does destroy the community of interest that is the city of Nashville. Nashville residents would be far better served by one district encompassing the entire city than by two districts dominated by its politically polar opposite suburbs.

Until it's applied across the board, this is what you're gonna have...

[minionofmidas]

Well duh.

[timothyinMD]

Well duh.

^ My point from the start