US House Redistricting: Tennessee

[Torie]

Part of this split Nashville issue revolves around how confident one is that the Dems are more or less permanently done in middle Tenn and the suburban counties around Davidson that used to be marginal. I suspect that might be the case (part of it is a Japanese car manufacturers versus Detroit thing, on top of the social issues divide, and now we have right to work coming back and public employee unions - all issues that are toxic to the Dems in Tenn), in which event, unlike Columbus, Ohio, it might be reasonably prudent for the Pubbies to chop Nashville and eviscerate TN-05.

[Torie]

My map which I drew before looking at the published map is kind of similar. TN-05 can be made a toss-up CD with near total safety I think. Yes, a toss-up CD. Don't trust the McCain numbers in TN. That really inflates what is really the partisan baseline here I think. Just look at the "average" two party vote figures if you don't believe me (52%-48% Dem).

So I would not recommend doing more. The problem here is that TN-06 just doesn't have the uber GOP territory around it that one would like, so it can't do much; it just isn't possible to really Pub it up. So it just takes some marginal precincts in Davidson, while TN-07 takes some of the heavy Dem ones, thereby pushing TN-05 into heavy GOP territory in the eastern suburbs.  I get nervous when the McCain percentages fall below about 58%, and prefer 59%.  So TN-07 has to do the heavy lifting, and it can do quite a bit, if like I did you really Pub it up as much as you can before you move it into Nashville. The way I drew it is not an accident. Ditto TN-06. The game was to Pub them both up, without creating a ridiculous looking map.

The only way to do more with some safety is to bring TN-04 into play (it's 65% McCain), but having that rural CD joining the  Nashville chop has me nervous (remember that a Tory Dem used to represent that CD until 2010), and would require radical changes from the existing map. So I just said no.

[Torie]

I suppose you have the wrong image?

It was a work in progress. Be patient! 

[Torie]

The point is to keep the Pubbie incumbents safe, and "leash" Gordon of course!  How many times do I have to tell you that I like "leashed" Dems.

Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost. The Pubs gain half a seat. Why not?

Drawing lines planning on where the new uber Pubbie exurbs are projected to be built is an old game Lewis. Willy Brown used to chat about that one 30 years ago. But you are probably too young to remember Willy Brown.   It was also an issue with the CA redistricting commission actually, and I think was even mentioned by the AZ one.

[Torie]

Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost.

Probably, yeah. Well, less than half, but still at no cost.

Half Lewis. Please don't nickel and dime me. LOL.

Now let's see if the Pubs get greedy and do a dummymander.

[Torie]

Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost.

Probably, yeah. Well, less than half, but still at no cost.

Half Lewis. Please don't nickel and dime me. LOL.

I'll give you a quarter for it.

Do I get my four bits now,  rather than the measly two that you condescended to award me Lewis, you cheapskate you?  

[Torie]

Can you show me a closeup of Nashville please? Hope you didn't put me in Blackburn's district. She is a little off. Though she is pretty hot. I'd hit that.

  I understand. I think Marsha got Al Gore as a constituent.   

[Torie]

Well, looks like I am in her district. I guess I live on the "wrong" side of Nolensville Pike.

Why not put the southwest corner of Davidson County, the Bellevue area, in Blackburn's district in exchange for some areas of central Nashville, or some Black neighborhoods of Nashville which are also in Blackburn's district from what I can tell. CD-6 might be a little overpubbified.

That exchange would just make TN-06 more Dem (if it picked up black precincts in exchange), and TN-07 more Pubbie, and TN-07 is already at 59.2% McCain.  TN-06 is at 58.8% McCain, and I don't want to go any lower, particularly for a freshman who has been given a largely new CD other than her home county of Rutherford. I consider 59% the sweet spot.  I just don't trust these inflated McCain numbers, although granted that is less true for suburban territory. I am trying to guess what the Pubbies might do, and a drop of 7 Pubbie points in TN-07 and 4 points in TN-06 seems like about right to me, all things considered. More would be a reach.

I also really didn't want to push TN-05 farther out into rural territory which while GOP, can swing strongly to a reasonable Dem incumbent, as well as mess up the map (I dumped one rural county into it as it was (well actually 3 really), because it/they was/were pretty Pubbie and within rather easy reach). It is better just to select which precincts one wants to pick up in Nashville, and tailor make your PVI numbers.

[Torie]

Well, if the numbers are like that then it's probably the right move. I thought you were trying to avoid the black areas with Blackburn's district, but it's not so. And yeah, 58-59% should be enough. And Cooper might not lose, but he will have to become more conservative, yes. Also to answer Lewis's question, you seem to have put the areas that should have more suburban growth into Cooper's district. But you also put the areas where the Black middle class will move in into his district as well.

I put up my matrix chart above, and below just for you. You can see the pattern. Part of it I guess, is that I don't want TN-06 and TN-07 to be way more Dem then their Pubbie colleagues. That just doesn't "feel" right - particularly since they are taking such a hit to their numbers as it is. The bump up in the GOP % in TN-03 is rather odd isn't it?  I didn't expect that, but I guess TN-02 and TN-04 took some of its more Dem territory, relatively speaking, and TN-04 made up for it, and then a tad, by where it expanded elsewhere to the west.

I didn't use PVI's for this chart, because in TN, I consider them misleading. You've got to admit that my matrix charts are just gorgeous no?



Oh, the partisan numbers on the Dave Bradlee software are screwed up for TN-03 for some reason. It is about 5% percentage points too high for McCain vis a vis the actual numbers. That explains it. So I am adjusting for that. The chart below for TN-03 should be  more accurate.

[Torie]

TN-3 is quite odd. Not like it matters though. TN-6,7 and 8 around 60% seem about right. I wonder if the pubbies in the legislature realize they need to keep things more GOP in these seats to hold all of their gains. I wonder how pretty their matrix is.

It was a Bradlee software data entry error of some sort as it turns out. See above. Bradlee seems to have "lost" tens of thousands of voters in TN-03. 

[Torie]

Thanks Lewis, but the price has gone up to five bits now.  Drip, drip, drip. I had a little problem:  I had those Memphis suburban precincts switched out of TN-07 put in TN-03, rather than TN-08!    Sky blue and cyan just look so similar!  So the map needed a bit of work (like about 70,000 in population worth of work), leading to well, TN-05 sliding into the "lean GOP" zone! As the pawns moved around, TN-07 picked up about 50 basis points, which I promptly dumped right back into TN-05.  I also picked up another 50 cheap basis points by moving TN-05 to the south rather than the east. TN-04 puts its oar in the water a bit to help out. Hey TN-05 even looks better too now! Life is beautiful. I can just feel Cooper's pain. 53% of his new CD is now new territory for him.

One other thing, for those who want the right numbers when they use the DRA. The missing votes are all in Hamilton County. So in whatever district you put Hamilton County (presumably TN-03), add 31,931 votes to the McCain total and 35,531 votes to the Obama total.

[Torie]

Thanks Lewis, but the price has gone up to five bits now.  Drip, drip, drip. I had a little problem:  I had those Memphis suburban precincts in TN-03!    Sky blue and cyan just look so similar!  

Your own fault for changing colors. -_- (Though default 5 and 18 are much too similar.)

I assume you have all the incumbents in the right districts? (I really wouldn't know, lol.) Also, since neither Fincher nor Blackburn really wants the remaining Memphis suburbs, maybe they should split them, insulating both from a primary challenge from there. Only if it can be done without upsetting the partisan balances, of course.

Eastern districts look good. I would ask why the two first ones are so far off optimal population, except that I already know the answer. Those huge precincts just can be a pain in the ass.

Yes, I checked all of that except for Fincher. I suppose I should check out where he lives; I didn't before because he had not really lost any territory. Now he has.  And yes the precincts are big, which led to a couple of splits that I would not have otherwise made (like Oak Ridge). So what I did is try to match the over/under numbers between two adjacent CD's, so some precinct can be easily chopped.

I really don't want to split the Memphis burbs between two Pubbie CD's. It would make the map butt ugly, and erode some the Pubbie precentage in TN-07. That is because the two counties directly to the east of Memphis are kind of marginal, and "marginal" is a dirty word when it comes to anything put into TN-07. Fincher should just stop being a crybaby. The Memphis burbs hardly dominate his CD. He should just suck it up - and shut up.

[Torie]

erode some the Pubbie precentage in TN-07. That is because the two counties directly to the east of Memphis are kind of marginal, and "marginal" is a dirty word when it comes to anything put into TN-07.

Ah right. Makes sense. Lots of rural Blacks there.

Fincher by the way lives in Crockett County. So life is beautiful - yet again.  

And you can see why if the Dems do as poorly in 2012 as they did in 2010, Cooper is in pretty serious trouble (and he campaigned pretty hard in 2010), given that TN-05 has moved 10.3% in the Pubbie direction:

[Torie]

OK, I know I am beating this drum until it has no sound, but I "found" another 20 basis points, and just can't help but share the "good news."  I screwed around with Bedford County to "find" them. Cooper is going to have to have an immediate epiphany, and become a hard core blue dog. Maybe he should get some pointers from that guy from Lexington Kentucky, and pour a little Boren in it for good measure. He is going to have to fight like heck to survive. I give him a 1 in 3 chance. And I suspect something like this map is probably going to happen. Get a clue Charlie Cook! Of course, given some of the mappies we have seen actually enacted ... well, whatever.

Gosh I am getting rather good at this I think. No more than one county split between each set of two adjacent CD's, and no municipal splits anywhere, except where the uber large precincts forced me into it - except of course for Nashville, which of course was the point. So I didn't cheat - much. And not much erosity either, unlike the current "disgusting" Dem gerry. It was fun to toss that one out. I could pick up 10 basis points for TN-08 by flipping two precincts in Selby County (still respecting municipal lines), but decided that enough is enough. TN-08 is not going to fall to the Dems any time soon.

Anyway, I'm done with TN - finally!

[Torie]

Here's the map, sbane.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/993/tennessee-considers-ketronmander

I don't know if its a reality, and frankly, I'm not a huge fan of 8-1, but regardless its cool to see people's work reflected. Torie of course had that WSJ article.

That map gains but one point for TN-05 vis a vis my map due to its multiple county splits, precinct cherry picking, some additional erosity and so forth. The balance of his additional total of 3.2% Pubbie points gained (another 2.1%) is gained by shoving the McCain percentages in TN-06 and TN-07 down to levels that I think are unwise.  Sometimes less is more.

And below is a map that does more county splits, and is uglier (but not hideous), which goes in to carve out the blacks in county seats with some restraint, but only some (yes it is a disgusting exercise - totally disgusting - but that seems to be the modus operandi these days, just gut the opposition any way you can, and screw any other considerations). If you want to go for the max, and really go for the gold, that might push up the McCain percentage in TN-05 by another 70 basis points, and if you are willing to cut the McCain percentage in TN-07 down to 58.5% McCain, then Cooper in TN-05 gets very close to road kill. As it is, in my judgment he only has about a 1 in 4 chance of winning in this election cycle. If one were willing to cut the McCain percentage down in TN-06 to 58.5% McCain, he becomes just about absolute road kill, and total road kill if you cut the McCain percentages down to 57.8 and 57.9 percent McCain per what the map the other chap did. All of the above combined, would make TN-05 about 57.6% McCain, 60 basis points higher than the other map.  

While it would probably be acceptable to cut TN-07 down to 58.0%-58.5% McCain (it is a pretty reliably polarized CD electorally speaking),  TN-06 is less so, and for that CD, I think it quite unwise in my judgment to cut it down below 59% McCain in the sense that it creates some very modest risk that something might go wrong. In any event, a 56.7% McCain TN-05 gets Cooper down to very close to absolute road kill. I view 57% McCain as probably close to certain that Cooper will be defeated. Anything much over 56% gets him down to about a 10% of surviving. In other words, in my matrix chart, when you hit 57% McCain for TN, that excel cell goes red.

Anyway, the map:

[Torie]

Well after what the Dems did in MD, I wanted to punish them a bit more. However, in looking at prior maps, there just isn't a culture of multiple county splits, and I didn't want to break with that tradition. It just might not sit too well. So I had two inconsistent goals. But I think I found a pretty good objective function given the constraints, and so came up with the below. You can see why I did what I did with TN-06 and TN-07 by looking at the two party splits rather than the McCain numbers in the two CD's. TN-06 has a higher McCain percentage, but a lower two party split number. Moreover, Marsha Blackburn (TN-07) is a seasoned veteran, and lives just across the county line from Davidson in Brentwood, so she should be just fine. The incumbent Diane Black (TN-06) is a newbie.

I think this is the best that can and should be done, and I did read on the internet from some pol that what is in play for TN-05 runs from 45% McCain to 55% McCain. This is the 55% plan. It hews to the but one county split between two CD's rule. I like it!

[Torie]

Meh, this was likely to happen anyways. Blackburn should be fine as long as she stays generic R. I remember her being a little crazy back in the day, but she seems to have settled down. Or the pubbies doubled down on the crazy, and she isn't so noticeable anymore. Probably a combination of two. I would just like to add that the slice of Nashville you are giving her is swingy. It has a Trader Joes, and lots of Yoga places. Get what I am saying?

Her slice of Davidson is all over the place. It's about 63.5% Obama, 36.5% McCain. Some of her precincts are over 90% Obama, and some over 60% McCain. There is not that much marginal territory. She takes in almost all of one of two nodes of blacks in Nashville. One precinct that is marginal (55% McCain), I did in my final changes move that 11,000 population precinct from her CD to TN-05 (right next to where you live actually). That precinct (colored in white below) may well be "swingy," (it's 14.5% black and in the transition zone and big) and may be trending Dem (particularly if the blacks there are moving east) as a wild guess.

[Torie]

Ah, too much new territory in that map for the Pub incumbents, and at least Marsha Blackburn (unless she runs in TN-05 rather than TN-07), if not others, have been drawn out of their home. My map above does the job the way I think it is more likely to be done. My map went for the max without going over the edge (it was a very careful balancing test), but whether the Pubs will go so far as to make TN-05 a 55% McCain CD remains to be seen. They may be more cautious, to not get quite so close to the "responsible edge."

[Torie]

Ah, too much new territory in that map for the Pub incumbents, and at least Marsha Blackburn (unless she runs in TN-05 rather than TN-07), if not others, have been drawn out of their home. My map above does the job the way I think it is more likely to be done. My map went for the max without going over the edge (it was a very careful balancing test), but whether the Pubs will go so far as to make TN-05 a 55% McCain CD remains to be seen. They may be more cautious, to not get quite so close to the "responsible edge."

Your pet name for Republicans is pretty creepy.  Pubbie?  Really?

I've never taken incumbent residency into account in any map I've drawn.  I don't care about incumbents


Splitting a city into two districts doesn't "destroy a community of interest."  It's a partisan play.  All of downtown Nashville is in the yellow district.    Let's compare my split of Davidson Co, and the Dems shreading of Baltimore City/Co and see which one is better..

I understand, but that is about all the map makers care about: taking care of incumbents of their own party is job one.

I trademarked the term "Pubbie." It's mine - all mine! 

[Torie]

Here's my whole county version of the map. All districts are within 0.5% of the ideal, and the maximum deviation is 2506. CD 9 is entirely within Shelby and is 56.0% BVAP. At least one county must be split around Nashville to stay within the population range, and Davidson was split since it is the largest.

Hey, Mike, if this were in the Midwest, your TN-05 would have a GOP leaning PVI!  But TN isn't in the Midwest, so it doesn't. Darn!  

[Torie]

Yes, but I like my 55.1% McCain number for TN-05 better.  It needs to get up to about that, for the GOP to have a distinct edge. Marginal CD's are for good government types, not for gerrymanderers! So Davidson gets a tri-chop: tame stuff as compared to some other states we know and love no, like say, inter alia, Illinois, to pick a state at random?

Hey, my TN-05 isn't even particularly erose, and outside Davidson, has but one county chop (albeit cutting into a county seat to grab the Dems who hang out there). That is very restrained for me.

[Torie]

Cooper asks for the Republican parts of Davidson back.

http://wpln.org/?p=32652

And the repost from the Pub legislator was that keeping Davidson whole was not high on the Dem's agenda with their little gerry a decade ago, when Pub areas of Davidson were removed, and she appreciates their little epiphany towards a good government map now that they are the ones left out in the cold. No, the Pubs are going to gut Cooper it seems. Why wouldn't they? AZ must be avenged! 

[Torie]

Cooper asks for the Republican parts of Davidson back.

http://wpln.org/?p=32652

And the repost from the Pub legislator was that keeping Davidson whole was not high on the Dem's agenda with their little gerry a decade ago, when Pub areas of Davidson were removed, and she appreciates their little epiphany towards a good government map now that they are the ones left out in the cold. No, the Pubs are going to gut Cooper it seems. Why wouldn't they? AZ must be avenged! 

WA was revenge for AZ wasn't it?

You think WA was as egregious as that lawless (yes lawless) thing that McNulty drew in AZ with Mathis in her pocket? Really?

[Torie]

Huh, the Republicans really went easy on Cooper. I don't know how good of an idea it would have been to create a real Republican district for him, due to what it would do to the surrounding districts, but they could have created a more Republican district for him while keeping everyone safe. I guess they really want to protect their gains from 2010. Wise move, even if the 5th could have been made more Republican.

Yes, very cautious indeed. What the Pubs did was make sure that no rural Middle Tennessee reversion to its Jacksonian Dem voting habits would threaten any of their incumbents, because everyone gets a suburban county or two as a Pub anchor. The GOP incumbents clearly just want to dial it in. This map was not part of a "national" strategy.

[Torie]

You have got to love how TN-04 wraps around Chattanooga to suck up some of uber GOP Bradley County to the east. Even I would not have had the guts to draw that. The Pubs just don't trust those rural Middle Tennessee voters much, and wanted to render them toothless, even if they revert to their previously "bad" voting habits.