US House Redistricting: Tennessee

[minionofmidas]

Why bother with a gerrymander? They've won. I mean, you can't rule out the occasional come back every now and again, but that's nothing to worry about. Moral high ground time, maybe?

There's no reason not to unpack Blackburn's district. Whether it's really advisable to try and take out Cooper is another matter entirely.

[minionofmidas]

You're not going to get anything remotely pretty or truly safe for the entire period if you split Nashville. Far wiser to leave it alone (not sure Reps will take my advice, obviously, but yes I consider it likely).

When you do though...



Pretty and clean and fairly logical for the most part, and every incumbent is safe for the duration in his current district. Preserved the Chattanooga-Oak Ridge link because it's been defended to me before.

[minionofmidas]

Too lazy to check residency right now.

1 93% White, 71% McCain
2 87% White, 65% McCain
3 82% White, 11% Black, 69% McCain
4 92% White, 66% McCain
5 59% White, 26% Black, 58% Obama
6 84% White, 66% McCain
7 83% White, 10% Black, 61% McCain
8 74% White, 20% Black, 64% McCain
9 64% Black, 27% Black, 76% Obama

Yeah, this is part of my "what seems to be the fairest" series, not a prediction of course. What's the state of discussion - any news articles out of Tennessee pointing to what they intend to do with Nashville?

[minionofmidas]

I suppose you have the wrong image?

[minionofmidas]

I suppose you have the wrong image?

It was a work in progress. Be patient! 

Ah, I figured it was a copy-and-paste issue.

If you're moving it to just 51% McCain... what's the point? You force the Dems to spend money there maybe once or twice in the cycle; that's about it. Unless you know where the next wave of suburb construction is likely to occur... now there's a new (new to me, anyhow) idea for pubbie 'manders!

As to drawing Memphis-to-Jackson (as you didn't)... it's just stupid from a Republican perspective, I think. The parts of Memphis you excise have much better Dem growth potential than the rural black belt.

[minionofmidas]

Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost.

Probably, yeah. Well, less than half, but still at no cost.

[minionofmidas]

Anyway it is better than nothing. It moves the Pubbie ball half way, at no cost.

Probably, yeah. Well, less than half, but still at no cost.

Half Lewis. Please don't nickel and dime me. LOL.

I'll give you a quarter for it.

[minionofmidas]

Alright. Here you are.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks Lewis, but the price has gone up to five bits now.  Drip, drip, drip. I had a little problem:  I had those Memphis suburban precincts in TN-03!    Sky blue and cyan just look so similar!  

Your own fault for changing colors. -_- (Though default 5 and 18 are much too similar.)

I assume you have all the incumbents in the right districts? (I really wouldn't know, lol.) Also, since neither Fincher nor Blackburn really wants the remaining Memphis suburbs, maybe they should split them, insulating both from a primary challenge from there. Only if it can be done without upsetting the partisan balances, of course.

Eastern districts look good. I would ask why the two first ones are so far off optimal population, except that I already know the answer. Those huge precincts just can be a pain in the ass.

[minionofmidas]

erode some the Pubbie precentage in TN-07. That is because the two counties directly to the east of Memphis are kind of marginal, and "marginal" is a dirty word when it comes to anything put into TN-07.

Ah right. Makes sense. Lots of rural Blacks there.

[minionofmidas]

It's also not clear that 54.6% McCain will do the trick of removing Cooper. Having two districts like that, then, runs the risk (not a large risk by any means, but it's there) of losing both districts. They won't want to take that.

The other reason why it takes so long is of course that Memphis Republicans really want to have their own district (or rather congressperson) - Blackburn has had primary challenges based on the issue.
Which also means that neither Fincher nor Blackburn are going to be overjoyed with taking all of the Republican parts of Shelby.

[minionofmidas]

Well duh.

[minionofmidas]

Like this?

I consider the city of Nashville to be a community of interest, and its completely politically different suburbs to be a separate community of interest. Timothy's map does indeed consolidate Metro Nashville into two districts. The problem is that both districts are dominated by the suburbs and exurbs, which have very different interests from those of the city itself. As a result, a city with over 600,000 residents is effectively left without representation. The same area can and should be drawn in such a way as to create one district dominated by they city, and one dominated by the suburbs and exurbs.

(Strictly speaking, Metro Nashville as I'd define it is somewhat too large for two districts; you do need to chop some outer edges.)

[minionofmidas]

Heh, clever.
Of course, one issue may be that trends in such a Cooper district are not too friendly for the GOP, so the window of opportunity of getting a Republican in there may be short. But yeah, I could see them come up with that.

[minionofmidas]

deep inner city areas typically don't have much population growth

but neither do these rural counties, and inner suburbs can go Dem (and, in Memphis, go Black) hard. The district doesn't seem to have that much of hard R outer suburbia.

[minionofmidas]

Cooper asks for the Republican parts of Davidson back.

http://wpln.org/?p=32652

That would be the common sense map. I doubt they actually do that; it's not as if it's enough to put Cooper into any sort of trouble.

[minionofmidas]

Washington is the maximum Republicans could theoretically get. Arizona actually is not the maximum Democrats could theoretically get. Both maps include some parts that are actually quite sensible, some parts that make no sense outside of partisan gerrymandering, and some parts that make no sense whatsoever.

[minionofmidas]

Woah.

It's redistmas!

[minionofmidas]

What the Pubs did was make sure that no rural Middle Tennessee reversion to its Jacksonian Dem voting habits would threaten any of their incumbents, because everyone gets a suburban county or two as a Pub anchor. 

Yeah, I got that impression as well. And get Blackburn out of Memphis. Fincher's probably not too happy.

[minionofmidas]

Washington is the maximum Republicans could theoretically get. Arizona actually is not the maximum Democrats could theoretically get. Both maps include some parts that are actually quite sensible, some parts that make no sense outside of partisan gerrymandering, and some parts that make no sense whatsoever.

Where are the parts that make no sense whatsoever in Washington?

I do see them in Arizona, mostly in the Republican districts where only Republican districts could be drawn anyway, yet still insane things happened. Like Florence.

Wenatchee? That ridiculous first district? Oh wait, those are the parts that make no sense outside of partisan gerrymandering. The parts that make no sense whatsoever are the split of Seattle, the three-way split of Tacoma, and when I wrote that I was thinking of the three way split of the Eastside as well - but that was done to distribute congressional contenders onto the districts.

[minionofmidas]

How can Cohen lose that many people? He needs to gain 90k, net. 30odd k of that is Frayser. I don't think there were more than 60k worth of Blacks in Blackburn's district - maybe he's gaining some southeastern suburban areas that are more likely to become Black in the future than the remaining White sections in the center of town, though.

[minionofmidas]

LOL I just looked up the Wikipedia article on Frayser. LOL at the pic they have. Doesn't look very urban to say the least.

I'm surprised though that the suburbs and exurbs supposedly haven't reached northwest Shelby County like Millington when they've grown so much to the eastern areas.

You need a very fast-growing metro to grow in all directions alike. Memphis has been solid for decades but never really exploding. As long as people have a choice, the direction that was always "undesirable" = poor Black will see relatively little redevelopment.