US House Redistricting: Tennessee

[Miles]

Ah, too much new territory in that map for the Pub incumbents, and at least Marsha Blackburn (unless she runs in TN-05 rather than TN-07), if not others, have been drawn out of their home. My map above does the job the way I think it is more likely to be done. My map went for the max without going over the edge (it was a very careful balancing test), but whether the Pubs will go so far as to make TN-05 a 55% McCain CD remains to be seen. They may be more cautious, to not get quite so close to the "responsible edge."

Your pet name for Republicans is pretty creepy.  Pubbie?  Really?

I've never taken incumbent residency into account in any map I've drawn.  I don't care about incumbents

Torie's use of "Pubbie" used to annoy me, but now I don't mind it.

Your map is clean in that the districts are pretty compact.

[Miles]

So they did move Rutherford into the 4th...DesJarlias could very well have a strong primary challenge.

[Miles]

Numbers from DKE:

CD1: 29% Obama/ 35% D
CD2: 35% Obama/ 42% D
CD3: 33% Obama/ 41% D
CD4: 36.5% Obama/ 43% D
CD5: 58% Obama/60% D
CD6: 34% Obama/42% D
CD7: 37% Obama/ 43% D
CD8: 36% Obama/ 42% D
CD9: 76% Obama/ 70% D/ 61% black VAP

[Miles]

What the Pubs did was make sure that no rural Middle Tennessee reversion to its Jacksonian Dem voting habits would threaten any of their incumbents, because everyone gets a suburban county or two as a Pub anchor. 

Yeah, I got that impression as well. And get Blackburn out of Memphis. Fincher's probably not too happy.

Well, the first thing a party must do while redistricting is protect their incumbents. This map does a perfect job of that, although Fincher won't be happy, but Memphis Republicans will be.

Not really. They screwed DesJarlias. He'll probably have a primary with state Sen. Bill Ketron.

[Miles]

I did some more numbers for CDs 4 and 6. Ford didn't run much above the D average; at least in those districts.

Corker won the new 6th 53-45 and the 4th 55-44.

Corker also won the non-Shelby parts of the 8th by 52-47...so, probably about 53-45 districtwide.

[Miles]

Hmm. Cohen gets a blacker district and he loses most of his Jewish constituents.