US House Redistricting: Minnesota

[Ban my account ffs!]

In a northern district, Bemidji would easily dump Peterson for a more liberal DFLer.  The city of Bemidji and the indian reservations around here are heavily DFL while the surrounding townships are more or less split down the middle.  Some of the MN-8 townships in Bemidji supported Cravaack with a strong margin, while others went for Oberstar.  Cravaack won some townships that went DFL for governor and other state legislative seats.  In the city of Blackduck, northeast of here, Oberstar won with 61% in 2008, but lost to Cravaack in 2010 by a substantial margin.  Turnout was also about 35% lower in 2010 compared to 2008.

The city of Bemidji and the most populous townships are in MN-7, however, which voted for Peterson with large margins (the smallest of which was 54-39).  Bemidji proper was 2-1 for Peterson.

In a high turnout scenario, a northern district would easily break for a liberal over a conservative "tea-party" type.

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I don't think your plan is far off from what will end up happening.

It's hard to decide which northern MN district that Bemidji should go into.  We were never a mining area and we were never a farming area... but I suppose we have more in common with the non-mining areas of district 8 than district 7 which is generally more conservative.

Generally, Bemidji would go about 55-45 for a generic DFLer over a generic GOPer for congress if part of district 8.

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It's a gerrymander. It combines MN-03 with Carver County and McLeod County which it has no reason to be combined with and splits Walz's base by removing Nicollet. Nicollet and McLeod are not metro counties and have no place in a metro district. And Nicollet has no place being separated from Blue Earth.

Calling it a "gerrymander" doesn't make it a gerrymander.

Words have meaning, and the meaning of "gerrymander" is simply not "taking line choices that I don't like."


Here is a little reality for you: the metro population is not exactly five districts, so some of those districts must include areas outside the metro. That simply isn't "gerrymandering."

It's gerrymandering because:

It seeks to make Chip Cravaack's district safe by taking out Duluth and the Iron Range.

It seeks to make Colin Peterson, who is a very conservative Democrat, the representative from the liberal northeastern part of the state.

It weaken's Tim Walz's standing by adding more Republican areas to his district while removing Democratic ones.

It makes Paulsen's district safer for him by include very conservative areas, thus turning it from a swing district into a safe R district, and keeps both 2 and 6 nice and Republican.

It doesn't have to look like a gerrymander to be a gerrymander, Bigskybob... and drop the attitude.  kthx

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Bigsky, you clearly don't understand the geography or the economy of Minnesota.  All we're pointing out is that while yes, any map will have various communities that aren't perfect together in the same district... this map goes out of its way to put communities that have nothing in common together for the purpose of aiding Republicans, however subtle that might be.  (Again, just cuz the districts aren't shaped like a spider web doesn't mean there isn't subtle gerrymandering going on).

If there are to be 3 wholly rural districts in Minnesota... one should focus on southern Minnesota, another on agricultural areas of western MN, and another on the mining/forestry regions of northeastern MN.

I don't mind district 8 spreading west and engulfing Bemidji because Bemidji is not a farm-town.  It was originally based in forestry and still is to some degree... but also tourism as well as a regional center for commerce, banking, and government services.  We have much more in common with communities like Brainerd, Grand Rapids, and places like Ely than with Hallock or Ada.

At the same time, District 7 could easily engulf some of the outlying areas of St. Cloud to make up the balance.  There is no reason to lump St. Cloud into the 6th district since St. Cloud is its own city with its own economic base.

Colin Peterson in the 7th district makes sense.  He is a strong representative of agricultural and outdoorsmen issues.  He is a good fit for both Hallock and Willmar despite the wide distance between the two.  He is a terrible terrible fit for Virginia or Duluth... which are simply much more liberal than he.

[Ban my account ffs!]

You can go back and forth forever on the "communities of interest" nonsense. The maps creators note that the new 7th has the "community of interest" of being agricultural areas, while the new eight is a "community of interest" more along the lines of tourism, timber, and a shared Canadian border.

From a press account:

"Anderson said the new 7th District would be a predominantly agricultural region. "The people in Cambridge have more in common with people in Willmar than with people in Grand Marais," she said.

Besides the Canadian border, she said, residents of the new 8th District share interests in timber and tourism. Also, she quipped, snow melts more slowly up north than in the center of the state."

Are you kidding me?  Again, don't comment on this if you don't understand Minnesota geography. 


Grand Marais

Red River Valley


These have more in common than Cambridge has with Grand Marais?  Sorry.  While Cambridge is pushing it... the current 8th could stretch a bit westward to include communities like Bemidji stretching down towards Park Rapids which are all forested lake regions.

The 7th, however, should include the farming belt of western MN from the Red River Valley down into the Minnesota Valley, just as it does now.

"They share in common the Canadian border"... who cares?

The vast majority of Minnesotans don't want 3 east-west mega districts... I'm sorry to say it... but Chippy is gonna have to go in 2012.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Excuse me? Whom should we believe, a person whom was elected to Minnesota's legislature, was appointed by her peers-- whom where elected by a majority of the voters in a majority of the seats-- to create the map, or some wannabe punk with internet access?

Excuse me? Whom should we believe, a career politician who drew the map, who has a stake in the process, who lives in suburban Hennepin County, and would say whatever needs to be said to defend her work, or a normal person who actually lives in northern Minnesota and is intimately familiar with the geography and culture of that region? Oh wait, that career politician is a Republican, so obviously everything she says must be the gospel truth.

Would you explain why we shouldn't prefer an elected politician who has stood for office, been elected, appointed by her peers to run the process, lives in the suburbs of Minneapolis, and has some undetermined proclivity to mendacity, and familiarity with the geography and cultures in Minnesota, over a some wantabe politician who hasn't been elected, lives in some county North of Minneapolis and has some undetermined tendency towards mendacity, and familiarity of the geography and culture of Minnesota?


We can go back and forth loading, and unloading smuggled premises. What even you can't defend
would be for some audience member in a redistricting hearing standing up and stating to Senator Anderson, "  Are you kidding me?  Again, don't comment on this if you don't understand Minnesota geography." I sure the members of the Senate would look at him and say, "Who does that punk think he is?"

Just keep on a' pushin' the bar higher and higher, Bob!  Now you're just appealing to authority in the worst of ways.

[Ban my account ffs!]

If you look at the northern 1/3 of Minnesota, there are 3 distinct communities of interest.  You have the farming areas of far western Minnesota.. which constitutes a narrower and narrower band hugging the ND border as you go north... the recreational/logging/tourism areas of north-central Minnesota (also where the bulk of the state's Ojibwe Indians live), and the mining/logging/wilderness recreation areas of northeastern MN.

The former and latter interests are both well represented in the 7th and 8th districts, respectively... but the 2nd, Bemidji's main interest, is split between both and poorly represented.  Jim Oberstar did represent those interests well with recreational trail funding... but outside of fishing and hunting, Colin Peterson couldn't care less about the hospitality industry or timber/forestry.

While a northern super district makes little sense... putting Bemidji in with St. Cloud makes even less sense.

I wouldn't mind extending the 8th district further west to about Fosston and keeping only the border counties with ND in the 7th down to Becker County.  Make up for this by putting more of Stearns County into the 7th (try to get as much of St. Cloud into it as you can, like how it was in the 90s).

This would lump most of the touristy lakes areas from Lake of the Woods to Bemidji to Walker and Brainerd into the 8th which would give whoever represents it two communities of interest (mining/logging and recreation/tourism) while keeping the 7th mostly agricultural (with the exception of Detroit Lakes and Alexandria... but both are so far west and south that it would impossible not to lump them into an ag district).

It also might let us take the southern portions out of the 8th district.. it's almost getting down into exurbs territory now.  The 1st, 7th, and 8th should remain completely outstate MN seats.

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Bachmann will still run in the 6th.  (Damn!)

http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/139836973.html

Unsurprising.  And she'll win the district handily.  I'd expect Cravaack to lose fairly easily though.  Erik Paulsen will have an easier time being re-elected and John Kline will still be safe.

It'll be interesting to see how the legislative districts work out.  My old district was 4a, now I'm in 5a, which is more DFL friendly... while 5b is much more DFL friendly than 4b was... dropping the Brainerd Lakes area (GOP friendly) and picking up the Grand Rapids area.

So chances are I'll go back to having both a DFL house rep and state senator this fall.