US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Verily]

I seriously doubt the legislation was sufficiently thought-through to account for such municipalities.

[krazen1211]

The Pointe that has a precinct in Macomb is Gross Pointe Shores.  It was two separate townships in 2000.  It incorporated as a city during the past decade.  Its population is relatively small, though - about 3,000.

Michigan has a few other cities that straddled county lines in 2000.  Are there special rules for cities that straddle county lines?  Can they be placed in either county, or do they need to be broken up?

In theory, when the 2 provisions conflict, I suppose I'd just pick the one that favors the GOP more.

[cinyc]

I seriously doubt the legislation was sufficiently thought-through to account for such municipalities.

Well, there are a number of them, including the state capital of Lansing, which is mainly in Ingham but also part in Eaton County.  I know this in part because it screws up the labels on my forthcoming population change maps.

[Torie]

One of the Pointes has a precinct in Macomb County. Poor guys don't deserve to be stuck with the Detroit districts year after year; I hate the idea of letting good Pubbies drown.

The Pointe that has a precinct in Macomb is Gross Pointe Shores.  It was two separate townships in 2000.  It incorporated as a city during the past decade.  Its population is relatively small, though - about 3,000.

Michigan has a few other cities that straddled county lines in 2000.  Are there special rules for cities that straddle county lines?  Can they be placed in either county, or do they need to be broken up?

No, they can be placed in either county.  The money quote from the statute is this: "Congressional district lines shall break as few city and township boundaries as is reasonably possible."  Notice that the splitting of municipalities and counties are given equal weight from counting demerit points as it were. So, one get one point as I see it for either splitting a city or a county, and if you have to do one or the other, you can pick, and of course since the split is necessitated one way or the other, the split by definition is "reasonable." Reasonableness is the benchmark here; it is not a bright line test, so one can argue away that your additional splits are "reasonable." The court might buy it - or not.

An interesting thought occurred to me as a legal argument for me dipping MI-12 into Wayne County to pick up the Pointes. It is a nose in the tent argument. Since for that one town that is bifurcated (by one precinct) between Macomb and Wayne, you get to pick which split you want to do. You pick to cross into Wayne to avoid the municipality split. And since you are now in Wayne anyway, you're in baby, and now free to suck up the rest of the Pointes precincts. It is just another arrow in the quiver. Another is to whine that the Flint area is split enough, and to do anymore will prove inconvenient for this reason or that, and so to avoid it, the dip into the Pointes by MI-12 crossing a county boundary is well - "reasonable!"  

[Torie]

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.

Where does the Ann Arbor district go after it fills up on Washtenaw? It would need nearly 400,000 other people. That, coincidentally, is the population left over in Wayne County after you allocate it two districts.

On edit: Wayne + Washtenaw = 2,165,000. 
Three districts = about 2,130,000.

The Pubbies are protected by the Voting Rights Act. One can't draw two 50% VAP black CD's that way. The VRA is a wonderful thing for Pubbies, except sometimes in the case of Hispanic CD's, when it is not so good. But for blacks, it's wonderful! 

I think the question has become whether two VRA districts can be drawn in the first place. It might be possible but it will be rather tough.

It can be done - easily. In my map, one black CD is 63.5% black, and the other 52.1% black.  That is for non final population numbers. The final VAP census numbers may push MI-13 down below 50% black VAP, but if so, the precincts between MI-14 and MI-13 can easily be jiggled to get MI-13 above the 50% black VAP threshold, even if it necessitates a municipality split that would otherwise be illegal under Michigan state law.

[minionofmidas]

I don't see how they justify two Detroit districts. And if you go down to one Detroit district, then Ann Arbor is no longer in with Dingell, and you have a lot of Democrats in Macomb and Oakland who don't really fit into a single district. I am curious what happens.

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.


That Detroit district might displace NY-16 as the new Mordor.

Mordor has a lot of surface. I think you mean the new Rivendell.

Torie, your map's two districts have probably no more than half a million inhabitants each. Sorry to break it, but all your work here is only good for the trash can now. Detroit is gone. Party's over. The city is no more.

[Torie]

I don't see how they justify two Detroit districts. And if you go down to one Detroit district, then Ann Arbor is no longer in with Dingell, and you have a lot of Democrats in Macomb and Oakland who don't really fit into a single district. I am curious what happens.

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.


That Detroit district might displace NY-16 as the new Mordor.

Mordor has a lot of surface. I think you mean the new Rivendell.

Torie, your map's two districts have probably no more than half a million inhabitants each. Sorry to break it, but all your work here is only good for the trash can now. Detroit is gone. Party's over. The city is no more.

Wait a minute. I thought the county numbers were accurate; it was only the intra county numbers that were subject to adjustment. If so, it would be near impossible to have that much of an error factor. Or am I missing something?

[minionofmidas]

I was slightly exaggerating, but Wayne County as a whole has 130,000 people fewer than your map supposes.

[Verily]

I don't see how they justify two Detroit districts. And if you go down to one Detroit district, then Ann Arbor is no longer in with Dingell, and you have a lot of Democrats in Macomb and Oakland who don't really fit into a single district. I am curious what happens.

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.


That Detroit district might displace NY-16 as the new Mordor.

Mordor has a lot of surface. I think you mean the new Rivendell.

Torie, your map's two districts have probably no more than half a million inhabitants each. Sorry to break it, but all your work here is only good for the trash can now. Detroit is gone. Party's over. The city is no more.

Wait a minute. I thought the county numbers were accurate; it was only the intra county numbers that were subject to adjustment. If so, it would be near impossible to have that much of an error factor. Or am I missing something?

No. The estimates were still estimates; they were not actual Census numbers. And apparently the 2009 estimates way, way overestimated Detroit (or, rather, underestimated its decline). Detroit as a whole has almost 200,000 fewer people than your map presupposed. There was huge error.

[Torie]

I was slightly exaggerating, but Wayne County as a whole has 130,000 people fewer than your map supposes.

How many people does Wayne have? Mine has 1,977,977.

[Nhoj]

I was slightly exaggerating, but Wayne County as a whole has 130,000 people fewer than your map supposes.

How many people does Wayne have? Mine has 1,977,977.

1,820,584

[Brittain33]

I was slightly exaggerating, but Wayne County as a whole has 130,000 people fewer than your map supposes.

How many people does Wayne have? Mine has 1,977,977.

1,820,584

It looks to me that all the Pubbies being counted on to keep McCotter's career on life support are 300 miles further west than expected.

[Torie]

I was slightly exaggerating, but Wayne County as a whole has 130,000 people fewer than your map supposes.

How many people does Wayne have? Mine has 1,977,977.

1,820,584

Wow, just wow. Does anyone know the population of Macomb? I will calculate what I have. If it dropped enough, the dip into the Pointes will be airtight legally. Thanks.

[Verily]

Macomb actually grew. It's around 802,000 people IIRC (don't recall the exact numbers).

[Torie]

Macomb actually grew. It's around 802,000 people IIRC (don't recall the exact numbers).

My number is 827,770. Oh, I found the data link to all of this, here.  Macomb is 840,978, actually a tad above my number. But the population drop in Wayne, will just suck up a bunch more Dem precincts, and the Pubbies may be totally unleashed if they can draw two black VAP 50% CD's, but need to go where convenient to do it, like into Washtenaw or the SW corner of Macomb, or whatever. And excising the Pointes may be "necessary" as well. It could give the Pubbies quite a hunting license, and quite possibly shove MI-12 out of the marginal zone, in which event it will be Pubbies +1 point, rather than just +.5 points.

Pity Ohio is taking so long. I would like to get it done by the time the Dave Bradlee software gets the census numbers in its data base for Michigan. I can't wait!

[Brittain33]

the Pubbies may be totally unleashed if they can draw two black VAP 50% CD's, but need to go where convenient to do it, like into Washtenaw or the SW corner of Macomb, or whatever.

Washtenaw is about 12% African American according to the discredited 2009 data (40,000 African-Americans) and McCotter's district lies between there and Detroit. It may well be that the future is as you imagine it, a Republican boot stamping on a Democratic face forever, but it's conceivable that not as many teeth will get knocked out. We shall see.

[cinyc]

the Pubbies may be totally unleashed if they can draw two black VAP 50% CD's, but need to go where convenient to do it, like into Washtenaw or the SW corner of Macomb, or whatever.

Washtenaw is about 12% African American according to the discredited 2009 data (40,000 African-Americans) and McCotter's district lies between there and Detroit. It may well be that the future is as you imagine it, a Republican boot stamping on a Democratic face forever, but it's conceivable that not as many teeth will get knocked out. We shall see.

Eh - that estimate was actually accurate, for once.   Washtenaw is 12.5% non-Hispanic black with approximately 43,000 African Americans.  That's barely up from 12.2% non-Hispanic black in 2000 with about 39,000 African Americans.  The black population fell by about 12.6% in Ann Arbor.  It rose in the surrounding townships.

[krazen1211]

Trivia question: What is the size of the largest precinct in Detroit that gave McCain 0 votes?

For the record, Obama got 325,534 votes in Detroit City. McCain got 8,888.


That analogy actually works well. The elves after all were fleeing Rivendell.

If I were the Michigan GOP I would just change the law to allow more county splits in and adjacent to Wayne County. You need it to protect Detroit's black districts anyway.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Where would the Democrats Valinor be? California?

[Linus Van Pelt]

Two black majority VAP districts remain possible even without any weird snakes or an extra cross into Macomb, so the Detroit pack is clearly VRA-incompatible. But you have to go much further afield than we have been expecting. I'm not sure what the GOP will decide to do about this. Two examples, without having calculated all the ramifications to the surrounding districts: first, you can now go way downriver and totally overwhelm Dingell's core territory if you want; the second uses the brown district to attack the Oakland Dems more. (I've just moved the brown northward on the second map, but if the unneeded Macomb crossover is allowed by the law, which I'm not sure about, then in the second map the blue might as well also go north instead of south given that you're leaving Dingell his district.)

[Verily]

Would it be possible to do an extension into Macomb? Macomb has to be split regardless; it's too big for one seat.

[Bacon King]

Would it be possible to do an extension into Macomb? Macomb has to be split regardless; it's too big for one seat.

The two Wayne County districts here are both ~53% black.

[Sbane]

Would it be possible to do an extension into Macomb? Macomb has to be split regardless; it's too big for one seat.

The other option is to use southern Macomb for another Dem district and add it to the non-black lean Dem areas of Oakland county and combine the 9th and the 12th that way. The second map that linus posted is what I think is likely. It still frees up territory in south Wayne for Dingell that no pubbie probably wants as well as eliminates a Dem district without any consequences.

Although I guess it also depends on whether a whole district will be forced within Macomb. But if they didn't do it in 2000, they probably won't do it now.

[Verily]

You could do a whole district in Macomb regardless, although the lack of one in 2000 does indicate that they won't bother this time, either. If they do try to leave a whole seat in Macomb, it would contain everything but Eastpointe, Center Line and most of Warren, which either go in a Detroit CD or in a Macomb-Oakland Dem CD.

Strictly speaking, there's no need for a black district to cross into either Macomb or Oakland counties; I managed two districts barely over 50% black VAP in Wayne County alone.

[Torie]

Would it be possible to do an extension into Macomb? Macomb has to be split regardless; it's too big for one seat.

The two Wayne County districts here are both ~53% black.

Oh God, I am getting an orgasm over that map. Perfecto! That is just what I wanted to see.