US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Dgov]

MI-09, the Levin CD, is more Dem rather than less?  Are you sure Johnny?

That's less Dem than MI-12, which it basically is. Makes sense as it drops blacks.

What is the PVI of a Flint to Lansing Connection?

it would be about 72% Obama (Assuming you also took it up to Saginaw), so D + 18 or D + 19

[JohnnyLongtorso]

MI-09, the Levin CD, is more Dem rather than less?  Are you sure Johnny?

The previous CD numbers are for MI-09. The old MI-12 was 65-33, which is a drop of about 7%.

[Sbane]

I did a Rep gerrymander where I kept Pontiac in CD-9, so it looked much nicer than the proposed maps. I also kept CD-9 down to 56.9-41.3 Obama, as per the DRA numbers. The only main difference is that Mcotter's district becomes 52.1-46.4 Obama. Perhaps Pontiac should have been kept in CD-9.

[Torie]

MI-09, the Levin CD, is more Dem rather than less?  Are you sure Johnny?

The previous CD numbers are for MI-09. The old MI-12 was 65-33, which is a drop of about 7%.

That makes sense. And with a few simple "fixes," the drop would be about 9% or so, which gets it down close to a somewhat marginal CD, between a 2%-5% Dem PVI CD.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, here's the proposed map:



It's almost exactly the same as the draft map:



Except the 14th doesn't dip back down into Wayne County, and the 11th pulls in Birmingham.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Zoomed in for Wayne/Oakland County is available here: http://download.gannett.edgesuite.net/detnews/2011/pdf/0617congressmap.pdf

I have to admit... that map makes even me cringe, especially with the 14th District.

[minionofmidas]

Got a zoomin for the rape of Grand Rapids? We all know what line Lansing is being raped on.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's an alternate universe map where Virg Bernero won in a landslide, sweeping the Democrats into a State Senate majority at the same time:



MI-01 (blue) - 54-44 Obama
MI-02 (green) - 55-43 McCain
MI-03 (purple) - 49-49 Obama
MI-04 (red) - 49-49 McCain
MI-05 (yellow) - 61-37 Obama
MI-06 (teal) - 55-43 Obama
MI-07 (grey) - 50-48 Obama
MI-08 (light purple Lansing/Ann Arbor) - 61-37 Obama
MI-09 (sky blue) - 57-42 Obama
MI-10 (magenta) - 53-46 McCain
MI-11 (light green) - 62-36 Obama
MI-12 (light purple SE) - 59-39 Obama
MI-13 (pink) - 74-25 Obama, 50.2% black VAP
MI-14 (brown) - 79-20 Obama, 50.1% black VAP

[cinyc]

Got a zoomin for the rape of Grand Rapids? We all know what line Lansing is being raped on.

The Detroit News map appears to show the city of Grand Rapids intact in proposed MI-03, with most of its immediate southern and western suburbs in proposed MI-02.

The city of Lansing proper isn't being raped.  The city is divided along county lines - as under the current map.   The overwhelming majority of the city's population and land is in Ingham County, anyway, not Eaton County.  Not dividing a county seems to trump not dividing a municipality under Michigan law.  The city of Grosse Pointe Shores appears to be split into two CDs, too, with the larger portion of that city in with Detroit and proposed MI-14 and the small portion in Macomb County in a Macomb-based district.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Got a zoomin for the rape of Grand Rapids? We all know what line Lansing is being raped on.

The Detroit News map appears to show the city of Grand Rapids intact in proposed MI-03, with most of its immediate southern and western suburbs in proposed MI-02.

The city of Lansing proper isn't being raped.  The city is divided along county lines - as under the current map.   The overwhelming majority of the city's population and land is in Ingham County, anyway, not Eaton County.  Not dividing a county seems to trump not dividing a municipality under Michigan law.  The city of Grosse Pointe Shores appears to be split into two CDs, too, with the larger portion of that city in with Detroit and proposed MI-14 and the small portion in Macomb County in a Macomb-based district.

He's right about Lansing - that split makes sense, and is probably more legally sound than keeping the city together.  As for Grand Rapids, I don't know city boundaries, but it appears to keep the city all together from my estimation of the city lines.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

[Dgov]

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

Well, it doesn't fit anywhere else.  Grand Rapids to the West, the Tri-cities/Flint to the North East, and South-central MI to the South.  Each of those areas has its own district that is a pretty good COI, so Lansing gets shafted and shoved with the extra Detroit Burbs.  Its of course drawn in a way to make it an R seat, but its not like they're just trying to spite the city.

[Verily]

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

Well, it doesn't fit anywhere else.  Grand Rapids to the West, the Tri-cities/Flint to the North East, and South-central MI to the South.  Each of those areas has its own district that is a pretty good COI, so Lansing gets shafted and shoved with the extra Detroit Burbs.  Its of course drawn in a way to make it an R seat, but its not like they're just trying to spite the city.

Ummm... No? You're being a partisan hack? The Lansing metro (Ingham, Eaton, Shiawassee, Clinton) is much, much clearer community of interest than "random small cities plus parts of Lansing and some suburbs" that MI-07 consists of.

[ilikeverin]

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

Well, it doesn't fit anywhere else.  Grand Rapids to the West, the Tri-cities/Flint to the North East, and South-central MI to the South.  Each of those areas has its own district that is a pretty good COI, so Lansing gets shafted and shoved with the extra Detroit Burbs.  Its of course drawn in a way to make it an R seat, but its not like they're just trying to spite the city.

Ummm... No? You're being a partisan hack? The Lansing metro (Ingham, Eaton, Shiawassee, Clinton) is much, much clearer community of interest than "random small cities plus parts of Lansing and some suburbs" that MI-07 consists of.

Yeah, I'm continually confounded by the tendency to divide Lansing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a map I drew at an attempt at non-gerrymandering:



Yes the Lansing district takes in some odd and not all that well-fitting counties, but if an area doesn't have enough full population for a district there will always be some odd counties tacked on. The seat though gets all of Oakland County into two well split seats and Lansing in a clear community of interest instead of just tacking it on with some Detroit exurbs to cancel it out. It's not even an overwhelmingly Dem seat, it's 56.7% for Obama and averaged 46.3% Democratic in those other races tallied which leaned Republican, the average is about 51.5% Democratic.

[Dgov]

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

Well, it doesn't fit anywhere else.  Grand Rapids to the West, the Tri-cities/Flint to the North East, and South-central MI to the South.  Each of those areas has its own district that is a pretty good COI, so Lansing gets shafted and shoved with the extra Detroit Burbs.  Its of course drawn in a way to make it an R seat, but its not like they're just trying to spite the city.

Ummm... No? You're being a partisan hack? The Lansing metro (Ingham, Eaton, Shiawassee, Clinton) is much, much clearer community of interest than "random small cities plus parts of Lansing and some suburbs" that MI-07 consists of.

No---Try it.  The way Michigan is drawn demographically, someone has to get screwed---Republicans draw the map so Republicans screw the easiest (and Safest) section.

Take a look at BRTD's map if you want to see what i mean.  Creating a Lansing-district screws over a bunch of other people by sucking up all the extra central MI population.  Its not like Putting Lansing with Livingston is any less odd than putting Livingston with Flint and Suburban Macomb with Bay City.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Except my map isn't designed to screw any specific party, unlike the Republicans' map.

Livingston may have been screwed in my map, but that's the price of having a nice logical split in Oakland, since the only options for Livingston are Lansing, Flint, Ann Arbor or outer Oakland. Of those, outer Oakland is the only one that fits well with it, so it's possible to draw it as such, but it'd make it not as good elsewhere. It IS possible though to combine Lansing with Livingston, but keep the Lansing area intact instead of splitting it and tacking on that slice of Oakland which serves no discernible non-partisan purpose.

And Bay City isn't lumped in with suburban Macomb on my map. It's in the green central Michigan swing district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And while it might look in anything but the current setup that Livingston County is getting screwed over, it's entirely unfair when you consider that Livingston isn't just Detroit exurbia, there's no doubt plenty of people who commute from there to Lansing, Flint or Ann Arbor. So it's not quite removal of a "community of interest" to put it in with the latter two. In fact probably the main reason it's so Republican is it ends up as a sort of refuge for Republicans who don't want to live in Lansing, Flint, Ann Arbor but connected to there and don't want to have to commute from the Detroit suburbs.

So if you want to argue Livingston belongs with Lansing, it's possible to keep that triangle of counties that constitute the Lansing area intact, put on Livingston, and fill the remainder with part of Shiawassee County and get an almost pure toss up swing district.

[BigSkyBob]

And while it might look in anything but the current setup that Livingston County is getting screwed over, it's entirely unfair when you consider that Livingston isn't just Detroit exurbia, there's no doubt plenty of people who commute from there to Lansing, Flint or Ann Arbor. So it's not quite removal of a "community of interest" to put it in with the latter two. In fact probably the main reason it's so Republican is it ends up as a sort of refuge for Republicans who don't want to live in Lansing, Flint, Ann Arbor but connected to there and don't want to have to commute from the Detroit suburbs.

So if you want to argue Livingston belongs with Lansing, it's possible to keep that triangle of counties that constitute the Lansing area intact, put on Livingston, and fill the remainder with part of Shiawassee County and get an almost pure toss up swing district.

Or, fill it up with Northern Oakland County with its mix of Detroit, Pontiac[?] and Flint commuters, and, you have a district with a Republican tilt.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

...and which would leave Lansing in a Dem-leaning seat.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

For what it's worth, here's what I did in an effort to make a community-of-interest-oriented map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That would be illegal under Michigan law, but is probably better than any proposed map so far, which probably shows why the obsession with county splitting is overdone. That gray seat for example is very logical, but also blatantly illegal.

[Verily]

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

Well, it doesn't fit anywhere else.  Grand Rapids to the West, the Tri-cities/Flint to the North East, and South-central MI to the South.  Each of those areas has its own district that is a pretty good COI, so Lansing gets shafted and shoved with the extra Detroit Burbs.  Its of course drawn in a way to make it an R seat, but its not like they're just trying to spite the city.

Ummm... No? You're being a partisan hack? The Lansing metro (Ingham, Eaton, Shiawassee, Clinton) is much, much clearer community of interest than "random small cities plus parts of Lansing and some suburbs" that MI-07 consists of.

No---Try it.  The way Michigan is drawn demographically, someone has to get screwed---Republicans draw the map so Republicans screw the easiest (and Safest) section.

Take a look at BRTD's map if you want to see what i mean.  Creating a Lansing-district screws over a bunch of other people by sucking up all the extra central MI population.  Its not like Putting Lansing with Livingston is any less odd than putting Livingston with Flint and Suburban Macomb with Bay City.

You don't have to screw either. Yes, BRTD's map is equally illogical, but that does not mean there are not logical maps that can be drawn.

One Lansing area seat (the four counties plus Jackson and a couple of towns in other counties), one Livingston and outer Oakland seat (plus a bit of suburban Wayne), one Ann Arbor, suburban Wayne and Monroe seat, two Wayne black seats, two suburban Oakland-Macomb seats, one exurban Macomb and mitten-thumb seat, one Flint-Saginaw seat, one Bay City and rural areas seat, one Kalamazoo/Battle Creek/southern tier seat, one Lake Michigan coast seat (Benton Harbor-Holland-Muskegon), one Grand Rapids seat and one north-and-UP seat. It all works out nicely.

I'll finish up the map I'm working on and post it soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know as much as I'd no doubt hate Livingston, it's kind of a nice location for the type of things I like, like punk/hardcore/indie shows. Detroit is one of the few major cities where the scene isn't concentrated in the city proper for obvious reasons, but rather around Ferndale. However since Oakland County still isn't "hip", most bands on tour just prefer to look at Ann Arbor. Lansing has shows too, but big concerts by mainstream bands would prefer metro Detroit for obvious reasons. So Lansing has a scene of mostly local bands, Ann Arbor gets all the small bands passing through, metro Detroit gets the big rock concerts and bigger indie bands, and Flint doesn't have much besides the occasional local show.

But imagine someone opened a venue in Livingston County. Kids from Ann Arbor could still drive to shows there, as could kids from Lansing and Flint easily. Kids from metro Detroit have a bit further drive, but not impossible.

The backfiring though is kids often hate to drive to shows (I do too, I did all the time when I lived in Mankato but I'd walk to local shows, and I almost always walk now.) Kids from Flint would be used to it and would like it, but then again others wouldn't. Kids from Ann Arbor would just rather go to shows in Ann Arbor and would be annoyed at driving as they don't often now, kids from Lansing would prefer it to Ann Arbor or near Detroit but would still prefer that shows just come to Lansing, and kids from Ferndale would rather feel like the kids from Ann Arbor. So it'd only attract a big turnout if it was a bigger band meaning someone would have to bother opening a big club there, not likely. So....well here's a reason why exurbs suck. And why local bands will play in St. Cloud and kids from St. Cloud are willing to drive to Minneapolis, but why no one has shows between Minneapolis and St. Cloud.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

You know as much as I'd no doubt hate Livingston, it's kind of a nice location for the type of things I like, like punk/hardcore/indie shows. Detroit is one of the few major cities where the scene isn't concentrated in the city proper for obvious reasons, but rather around Ferndale. However since Oakland County still isn't "hip", most bands on tour just prefer to look at Ann Arbor. Lansing has shows too, but big concerts by mainstream bands would prefer metro Detroit for obvious reasons. So Lansing has a scene of mostly local bands, Ann Arbor gets all the small bands passing through, metro Detroit gets the big rock concerts and bigger indie bands, and Flint doesn't have much besides the occasional local show.

But imagine someone opened a venue in Livingston County. Kids from Ann Arbor could still drive to shows there, as could kids from Lansing and Flint easily. Kids from metro Detroit have a bit further drive, but not impossible.

The backfiring though is kids often hate to drive to shows (I do too, I did all the time when I lived in Mankato but I'd walk to local shows, and I almost always walk now.) Kids from Flint would be used to it and would like it, but then again others wouldn't. Kids from Ann Arbor would just rather go to shows in Ann Arbor and would be annoyed at driving as they don't often now, kids from Lansing would prefer it to Ann Arbor or near Detroit but would still prefer that shows just come to Lansing, and kids from Ferndale would rather feel like the kids from Ann Arbor. So it'd only attract a big turnout if it was a bigger band meaning someone would have to bother opening a big club there, not likely. So....well here's a reason why exurbs suck. And why local bands will play in St. Cloud and kids from St. Cloud are willing to drive to Minneapolis, but why no one has shows between Minneapolis and St. Cloud.

There's your mission in life. Turn Livingston County into the kind of place you'd like to live! You can do it!