US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Sbane]

It looks like almost 3 districts will fit into Wayne County, save for about 60,000 people. Since county splitting needs to be avoided when possible according to the guidelines for gerrymandering in the state, would the GOP be required to draw 3 Wayne County districts, with a little bit sticking into Oakland or Monroe County? This would make the current 11th district about D+3 or so. On the other hand it becomes easier to make the 9th more Republican. It might also make the 15th more Republican, unless the GOP shores Dingell up by adding Lansing to his district, but I don't see why they would do that.



Something like this. Obviously the GOP won't want to do it, and keep like it is now and give the southern suburbs to Dingell, but will they be allowed to?

[Sbane]

You get an "A" for this exercise if you hew to the rule of 4 - 4 Dem seats each for Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

I would really be interested in seeing a PA map with only 4 Democrats. And what is meant by "Dem seats"? Would you consider a district that voted 51-47 for Obama a Dem seat or a Rep seat if I put one of the Republicans there? In any case a PA map with just 4 Democrats is a disaster in the making for the pubbies. Even in Ohio I had trouble keeping the Dems down to just 4 seats.

[Sbane]

You get an "A" for this exercise if you hew to the rule of 4 - 4 Dem seats each for Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

I would really be interested in seeing a PA map with only 4 Democrats. And what is meant by "Dem seats"? Would you consider a district that voted 51-47 for Obama a Dem seat or a Rep seat if I put one of the Republicans there? In any case a PA map with just 4 Democrats is a disaster in the making for the pubbies. Even in Ohio I had trouble keeping the Dems down to just 4 seats.

Did you see what I did to the inner city Pittsburgh district?    Again, in west PA, the Dem districts have lost a lot of population, which allows for a big Dem pack, particularly since PA lost a CD. So the Dems in west PA will have but one seat - on paper. Yes, Holden and Altmire may hang on (and probably will), and the Dems win 6 seats, but those two will be representing GOP districts - and vote accordingly. Good for them. And in suburban Philly, the Dems will be competitive, if there is a rather significant shift back their way, defeating some GOP incumbents, but nothing can be done about that. The available territory is too marginal.

What I did was create Holden a Democratic district within SE PA, and then tried to shore up the Philly area Republican. Actually worked decently well though I did end up with a 54-44 Obama 15th district. Every other Republican district is at least 50-48 Obama or more Republican.

Your Michigan gerrymander is also fascinating, but you should keep one thing in mind. Those blue collar voters that swung hard agains the Democrats this year, could come right back to them and more. If Obama loses in 2012, and a pro business Republican is elected with the economy still stagnating, expect huge swings back in these sorts of areas. Did these areas go even more Republican in 2010 than in 2004? 2004 is a good prism to view how things are really. 2008 was too screwy of an election as well as 2010.

[Sbane]

I guess that upends all those neat plans about putting together Peters and Levin.

I don't get what you are trying to say. These numbers are worse for the Dems than previously thought.

[Sbane]

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.

Where does the Ann Arbor district go after it fills up on Washtenaw? It would need nearly 400,000 other people. That, coincidentally, is the population left over in Wayne County after you allocate it two districts.

On edit: Wayne + Washtenaw = 2,165,000. 
Three districts = about 2,130,000.

The Pubbies are protected by the Voting Rights Act. One can't draw two 50% VAP black CD's that way. The VRA is a wonderful thing for Pubbies, except sometimes in the case of Hispanic CD's, when it is not so good. But for blacks, it's wonderful! 

I think the question has become whether two VRA districts can be drawn in the first place. It might be possible but it will be rather tough.

[Sbane]

Would it be possible to do an extension into Macomb? Macomb has to be split regardless; it's too big for one seat.

The other option is to use southern Macomb for another Dem district and add it to the non-black lean Dem areas of Oakland county and combine the 9th and the 12th that way. The second map that linus posted is what I think is likely. It still frees up territory in south Wayne for Dingell that no pubbie probably wants as well as eliminates a Dem district without any consequences.

Although I guess it also depends on whether a whole district will be forced within Macomb. But if they didn't do it in 2000, they probably won't do it now.

[Sbane]

Why the need for two districts reaching up into the suburbs? As long as the Black parts of Oakland County are in one of those districts, it can also pick up a chunk of Macomb and then the rest is composed of Detroit. So only one Black district goes into the suburbs, as well as Mcotter's.

[Sbane]

Ah yes districts can't traverse 3 counties for no reason. In that case 2 districts will need to go into the suburbs. The district that gets macomb gets more of Detroit and vice versa. I do believe it is important that no one other than Dingell or mcotter gets parts of Wayne so you are limited in how much population in the suburbs you can put in the Dem pack.

Also is washtenaw pretty Republican outside ann arbor? I find krazens map to be intriguing. You can make it look nicer but he has the right idea.

[Sbane]

How would that 9th vote? About d+2 or 3?

[Sbane]

I gotta say, that's a solid looking map. Definitely not a dummymander.

[Sbane]

I did a Rep gerrymander where I kept Pontiac in CD-9, so it looked much nicer than the proposed maps. I also kept CD-9 down to 56.9-41.3 Obama, as per the DRA numbers. The only main difference is that Mcotter's district becomes 52.1-46.4 Obama. Perhaps Pontiac should have been kept in CD-9.