European Union Expansion by 2030

[TheGlobalizer]

I voted Croatia and Montenegro.

Strong candidates are Iceland (if the banking stuff sorts) and Macedonia (if they can resolve the naming dispute with Greece).

Albania and Bosnia/Herz have paths but need some work.  Serbia is tied to Kosovo, nothing happens until sovereignty is settled.

Turkey?  That's "not a ing prayer" territory.  Turkey in the EU is DOA.

[TheGlobalizer]

Reason I continue to say Macedonia will be a yes is that Greece's bargaining power has been eroded considerably due to their...problems.  Rest of Europe is going to be less likely to let Macedonia's entry be stalled due to the asinine name debate when Greece is nearing total collapse.

Perhaps, but I doubt anyone will call Greece on it publically.  Realpolitik between EU member states is bad for the "project"; hell, thus far, they've been reluctant to even call out Greece on the obvious stuff.

Plus, the EU seems to give substantial deference to existing and more senior members.  If it's between Macedonia and Greece, Greece wins.

[TheGlobalizer]

I have to say, Greece's problem with Macedonia is possibly the single most irredeemably stupid instance of geopolitical friction extant, at least that I am aware of. Greece's position on this is so childish, silly, and insane that I really wonder why the international community hasn't just told them to buck up and deal with it.

Yeah, they're doing such a great job with the whole "pay your bills" thing, I'm sure they'll adjust behavior on Macedonia with a limp-wristed push by the EU.  :-)

I'd be embarassed to be Greek right now; their behavior on the international stage is almost uniformly infantile.