European Union Expansion by 2030

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Croatia maybe, but unless the EU has changed its unanimous consent rule to join, we're not going to see any other expansions in this decade.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Lol@norway and switzerland. Too good to be in "europe"

Not a case of being too good, but that it would be extremely stupid for either of them.  Norway would get screwed royally if its waters were part of the Common Fisheries Policy and its waters opened up to European trawlers.  Plus they'd have to use the same technicality that Sweden has used to avoid joining the Eurozone, that of not being a member of the ERM II for two years, as the Norwegian krone more than meets all of the other requirements that would force them to adopt the Euro.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With Mladic going to the Hague, and presumably Goran Hadzic right behind him, what does everyone now think of Serbia's chances of joining the European Union? 

It improves them, but I doubt they will be a member by 2020.

Croatia is the only one likely to be a member by then.

Iceland might have been stampeded into joining if the length of time it takes to become a member wasn't so long.  By the time the EU decides it is willing to accept Iceland, I think Iceland will have resumed thinking they don't want to join.

Montenegro and Bosnia will likely be members by 2030, with Serbia possibly as well, but the language issue will likely be a thorny one. (I.e., are there four languages there, four dialects of Serbo-Croatian, or some mixture of the two endpoints.)

There is also the Kosova issue to be settled before Serbia and Kosova join.

The Greeks will continue to hold Macedonian membership hostage to the name issue.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

San Marino will hold a referendum on 20 October to decide whether or not to submit an application for EU membership.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyZWZlcmVuZHVtZXVyc218Z3g6NTkxZWRmOTk2Y2E3NmMw

LOL, San Marino would have 6 times more members of the EU parliament than prisoners. Or maybe I should say prisoner.

I can't see San Marino getting full EU membership.  And 6 MEPs if they were!?!  That would make the EU parliament more imbalanced in per capita voting rights between its largest and smallest members than the US Senate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It would be almost the same as the US Senate in 1900.

Nevada was admitted way too soon.  They were too confident that it would grow and the nascent Republican Party wanted another three electoral votes they could count on in 1864.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The question for Iceland is whether they want to be in the EU.  If they ever decide they do, accession will be quick, but I'm doubtful they will decide that by 2030.  Montenegro is the most likely new member, but the necessary reforms could be done by 2020 or still not implemented by 2030.