European Union Expansion by 2030

[2952-0-0]

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

I doubt the ECB will let themselves lose face by allowing any Eurozone members to officially drop out of the zone. But look the other way as some countries introduce unofficial units of account (leaving the Eurozone by stealth) in order to speed up the internal devaluation they need, perhaps.

[2952-0-0]

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

I doubt the ECB will let themselves lose face by allowing any Eurozone members to officially drop out of the zone. But look the other way as some countries introduce unofficial units of account (leaving the Eurozone by stealth) in order to speed up the internal devaluation they need, perhaps.

That will be viewed as default by the credit markets.

It's already a given that at least one member will "default" in one way or another ("reprofiling", "restructuring", etc). Officially dropping the Euro may be viewed as a default, but can New York or London courts really pass judgement over an officially unofficial policy of a sovereign government? As long as the bonds are paid in Euros I'm not sure there can be a legal argument that a default has occurred.

[2952-0-0]

An EU member country cannot be expelled though it can leave/secede on a voluntary basis.  

Perhaps, but if the Eurocrats were really determined, they could make EU membership for a particular country so intolerable that its politicians will be forced to pander to nationalism in the electorate - and engineer an "expulsion".

[2952-0-0]

Serbia's prospects of becoming an EU candidate is suddenly much brighter:

I doubt any government will suddenly acknowledge the legitimacy of a foreign puppet regime on a historically significant part of their territory, though.