PPP: Huck leads AK, KY; Palin leads OH, WA; Gingrich leads NC; Romney leads NV

[Mr. Morden]

link:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AKKYNVNCOHWA_1115.pdf


AK
Huckabee 17
Gingrich 16
Romney 16
Palin 15
Pawlenty 5
everyone else at 2 or less

KY
Huckabee 26
Palin 19
Gingrich 17
Romney 13
Daniels 4
everyone else at 2 or less

NC
Gingrich 23
Huckabee 19
Palin 19
Romney 14
Pawlenty 4
everyone else at 2 or less

OH
Palin 20
Gingrich 19
Huckabee 17
Romney 14
Pawlenty 6
Daniels 3
everyone else at 2 or less

NV
Romney 34
Gingrich 21
Palin 16
Huckabee 11
everyone else at 2 or less

WA
Palin 19
Romney 18
Huckabee 17
Gingrich 15
Pawlenty 4
everyone else at 2 or less

Yes, oddly enough, Palin's %age in her home state is lower than any of the other 5 states in the poll.

[Meeker]

link:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AKKYNVNCOHWA_1115.pdf


AK
Huckabee 17
Gingrich 16
Romney 16
Palin 15
Pawlenty 5
everyone else at 2 or less

KY
Huckabee 26
Palin 19
Gingrich 17
Romney 13
Daniels 4
everyone else at 2 or less

NC
Gingrich 23
Huckabee 19
Palin 19
Romney 14
Pawlenty 4
everyone else at 2 or less

OH
Palin 20
Gingrich 19
Huckabee 17
Romney 14
Pawlenty 6
Daniels 3
everyone else at 2 or less

NV
Romney 34
Gingrich 21
Palin 16
Huckabee 11
everyone else at 2 or less

WA
Palin 19
Romney 18
Huckabee 17
Gingrich 15
Pawlenty 4
everyone else at 2 or less

Yes, oddly enough, Palin's %age in her home state is lower than any of the other 5 states in the poll.

Those that know her best like her the least.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It's actually not that surprising considering that she quit on them halfway through her term.

[CatoMinor]

Red- Giant Douche; Blue - Huck, Pink - Palin;Light Green - T-Paw; Green - Gingrich

[Poundingtherock]

Well, PPP's polling suggests that Romney cannot win anywhere outside of deep blue/NE/Mormon states.

[tmthforu94]

Well, PPP's polling suggests that Romney cannot win anywhere outside of deep blue/NE/Mormon states.

Florida and Colorado, two 2012 swing states.

[Poundingtherock]

I'll grant you Florida but he's sinking like a stone there.  Palin should be ahead in three months with the way the trends are going to for Romney in Florida.

Colorado is another heavily Mormon state, at least among Republican primary voters.

We'll see if romney is ahead in Montana when the polling is released this week.  That'll tell me if Romney is viable at all.  If he cannot hold onto Mormon base states, he'll be toast.

Besides, the samples for the states that Romney led in were pretty darn small.  Besides New Hampshire, I'm not sure if Romney led in any state with a sample greater than 320 voters.

[Reaganfan]

Huckabee's strength cannot be underestimated.

[Keystone Phil]

Huckabee's strength cannot be underestimated.

...yet it continues to be. At this point, it's a good thing for him to fly under the radar (a lot like 2008).

[tmthforu94]

I'll grant you Florida but he's sinking like a stone there.  Palin should be ahead in three months with the way the trends are going to for Romney in Florida.

Colorado is another heavily Mormon state, at least among Republican primary voters.

We'll see if romney is ahead in Montana when the polling is released this week.  That'll tell me if Romney is viable at all.  If he cannot hold onto Mormon base states, he'll be toast.

Besides, the samples for the states that Romney led in were pretty darn small.  Besides New Hampshire, I'm not sure if Romney led in any state with a sample greater than 320 voters.

2% of the Colorado population are Mormon.

[Poundingtherock]

It's 3% and 3% is pretty large when you are talking about a caucus/GOP primary.

If Romney is trailing in Montana, which has an even larger Mormon population than Colorado, you can turn out the lights on his campaign even before it gets started.

[Brittain33]

Huckabee's strength cannot be underestimated.

That's good, there's a bunch of congressional seats in eastern Pa. and around NYC that it would be nice to get back in 2012.

[Keystone Phil]

Huckabee's strength cannot be underestimated.

That's good, there's a bunch of congressional seats in eastern Pa. and around NYC that it would be nice to get back in 2012.

Yet Obama, who was supposedly the reason why those seats were safely in the Dems' hands in 2008, is the reason why they went handily Republican in 2010. Unless, of course, that was Nancy Pelosi's fault. 

[Mr. Morden]

general election matchups from these poll:

AK
generic Republican 52%
Obama 40%

KY
generic Republican 59%
Obama 34%

NC
generic Republican 55%
Obama 40%

OH
generic Republican 55%
Obama 40%

NV
generic Republican 52%
Obama 43%

WA
generic Republican 47%
Obama 46%

Taking all of PPP's recent "Obama vs. generic Republican" polls at face value, you would end up with this ranking of swing states from most Democratic to most Republican:

WA < MN < CO < ME < NV&WI < PA < AK < FL&NH < NC&OH

Alaska is a weird outlier from expectations there.  Could just be because Alaska is hard to poll.  IA, MI, and VA weren't polled, and where they end up would determine which is the "linchpin" state.

[Keystone Phil]

Winning Washington? Give me a break. Even at this point, I can't see Obama trailing there.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Hm, Palin's not even winning her own state in the primary now. For Palin, that's terrible.

Yes, oddly enough, Palin's %age in her home state is lower than any of the other 5 states in the poll.

[California8429]

Well, PPP's polling suggests that Romney cannot win anywhere outside of deep blue/NE/Mormon states.

Florida and Colorado, two 2012 swing states.

another reason Romney must lose. My school is half mormon, I would not be able to live through the election

[Skill and Chance]

general election matchups from these poll:

AK
generic Republican 52%
Obama 40%

KY
generic Republican 59%
Obama 34%

NC
generic Republican 55%
Obama 40%

OH
generic Republican 55%
Obama 40%

NV
generic Republican 52%
Obama 43%

WA
generic Republican 47%
Obama 46%

Taking all of PPP's recent "Obama vs. generic Republican" polls at face value, you would end up with this ranking of swing states from most Democratic to most Republican:

WA < MN < CO < ME < NV&WI < PA < AK < FL&NH < NC&OH

Alaska is a weird outlier from expectations there.  Could just be because Alaska is hard to poll.  IA, MI, and VA weren't polled, and where they end up would determine which is the "linchpin" state.

It would also be helpful to know about NM, although I imagine it is left of CO, Susana Martinez raises some questions as to how deep the Obama support goes there.

[California8429]

If only Huck and Palin didn't run (or either) Gingrich's boost would move from from 2nd, 3rd and 4th, to 1st across the board

[Poundingtherock]

PPP generally finds a ton of Democrat support in Alaska.

Hell, they had McAdams at 30% of the vote.

[Poundingtherock]

I think Palin would gladly trade Alaska for Ohio any day of the week.

[Tender Branson]

Previewing Montana and Virginia

We kicked off our 2012 cycle polling over the weekend with surveys in Virginia and Montana. Tomorrow we'll have have Montana Senate and Virginia President numbers, Wednesday we'll have have Virginia Senate and Montana President numbers, Thursday we'll look at who Republicans in those states would most like to have as their Senate and Presidential candidates, and then Friday we'll look at the Montana Governor's race.

A lot of things we found were different between the two states but one thing that was the same may have been the most interesting- two very clear tiers of electability within the ranks of the Republican front runners.

In Virginia both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee had the exact same margin against Barack Obama. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin had the same margin as well- but it was 6 points worse than the margin for Romney and Huckabee. In Montana it was an even greater disparity. Just like in Virginia Gingrich and Palin posted the same margin against Obama- there Huckabee does 8 points better than the Gingrich/Palin duo and Romney does 9 points better.

Things will change a ton over the next year but for now it looks like GOP prospects against Obama are massively better with Huckabee or Romney than with Gingrich or Palin.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/previewing-montana-and-virginia.html

I guess this means that Romney and Huckabee are ahead of Obama by about 3 in VA and ahead by a lot in Montana.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP looks at the differential in Palin's support from men and women across the 18 states they polled here:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/palin-no-mama-grizzly-herself-and-dont.html

The conclusion is that, on average, she actually does slightly better among Republican men then Republican women.  Though the difference is just 2 %age points.

[Guderian]

This is not very surprising. Palin's base are basically sad, overweight middle-aged men who have a crush on her.

[Mr. Morden]

Incidentally, PPP says that averaged across the 18 states they polled, the numbers would be:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/wrapping-up-2012-gop-polls.html

Romney 19.5%
Palin 17.9%
Huckabee 17.1%
Gingrich 15.7%