US House Redistricting: California

[Meeker]

What a wonderful map.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here we go, '08 and '10 numbers:

Congress
DISTRICT   Brown %      Obama %
IGWSG      90.1       90.4
OKLND      89.4       89.4
CRSLP      82.3       85.6
SF         78.1       84.9
HTGCC      82          83.6
ELABH      82          82.8
WLADT      73.1       77.5
SNMAT      70.9       75.1
SFVET      70          74.8
NOCST      65.9       72.6
SNMSC      67.7       72.3
MONT      65.2       72.3
SANJO      62.6       70.5
FRNWU      64.9       69.3
SAC         69.3       68.3
SNACL      65.1       67.7
COCO      61.5       67.5
SFVWC      58.9       67
LBPRT      60.8       66.8
IMSAN      65.3       66.3
DWWTR      63.8       66.2
COVNA      62.3       65.6
YOSON      63.5       65.4
SGMFH      57.8       64.7
PVEBC      56.5       64.6
SBRIA      63          64.1
YUBA      61.8       62.7
SGVDB      56.2       61.8
CHNCS      57.1       60.7
SNJOA      55          58.2
MRCED      54.2       58.1
ONTPM      54.3       57.8
EVENT      51.4       57.6
SLOSB      50          57
RVMVN      53.3       56.9
MMRHB      48.4       55.9
WESTG      50          52.3
KINGS      55.8       52.2
SACCO      51.8       51.3
AVSCV      43.1       51.3
COACH      46.7       50.8
STANI      47.7       50.6
CSTSN      41.1       50.2
OCCST      38.9        49.9
LHBYL      41           47.6
PRS         39.7        45.3
STHOC      35.1        44.7
FRSNO      37.8        42.7
INMSB      43.4        42.2
FTHLL      40.8        41.6
MTCAP      51.4        40.6
NESAN      36.5        39.5
KR         36.8        37

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't see this making many competitive districts. Republicans have been pretty consistent in winning the existing 51% Obama districts. Democrats would be fine with anything 58% Obama or greater. I wouldn't be surprised if the 56-57% Obama districts ended up being the only competitive ones.

[krazen1211]

I don't see this making many competitive districts. Republicans have been pretty consistent in winning the existing 51% Obama districts. Democrats would be fine with anything 58% Obama or greater. I wouldn't be surprised if the 56-57% Obama districts ended up being the only competitive ones.

ONTPM      54.3       57.8
EVENT      51.4       57.6
SLOSB      50          57
RVMVN      53.3       56.9
MMRHB      48.4       55.9


Which 5 are these by number?

[minionofmidas]

Can't tell you by number, at least not in all cases.

ONTPM      54.3       57.8 - Ontario, Pomona. I think this is new.
EVENT      51.4       57.6 - bulk of Ventura County - arguably CA-24, but considerably ungerrymandered. Excludes Simi Valley, has Oxnard and Ventura back in.
SLOSB      50          57 - CA-23, but considerably ungerrymandered mirroringly.
RVMVN      53.3       56.9 - Riverside, Moreno Valley. Is that Bono's district? I dunno.
MMRHB      48.4       55.9 - CA-53, but shifted northwards and taking in Poway.

[freepcrusher]

my thoughts on each district:

Bay Area

Contra Costa (District 7): This should be George Miller's district. He is pretty much safe here as he has survived both 1980, 1994, and 2010

Fremont-Newark Union City (District 13): This should be Pete Stark's district. Jerry McNerney may move here and challenge him in the primary though. This could be reminiscent of Lowery vs Cunningham back in 92.

Oakland (District 9): Barbara Lee, despite her radical stances, should be safe here.

San Jose (District 16): Zoe Lofgren, safe democratic district.

San Francisco (District Nancy Pelosi's seat. Obviously safe democrat.

South Santa Clara (District 15) Mike Honda. Safe democrat seat unless Tom Campbell runs and even then its an uphill climb.

San Mateo (District 12) Jackie Speier. Safe democrat

San Mateo-Santa Cruz-Santa Clara (District 14) Anna Eshoo. Safe democrat.

Yolo-Solano-Napa (District 10) John Garamendi. Safe democrat

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here we go, district-by-district maps and lots of data:

http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/crc-draft-congressional-plan/

[Brittain33]

Can someone explain the changes in San Diego? Where do they leave Susan Davis and does someone get a new district?

EDIT: thanks to the link above, it looks like Bilbray and Issa are in a primary and a new Republican district was created that covers the south coast.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Can someone explain the changes in San Diego? Where do they leave Susan Davis and does someone get a new district?

Susan Davis is here:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/428/

Duncan Hunter is here:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/452/

Filner's district, open now since he's running for San Diego mayor:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/442/

This is an open district, which is fairly swingy; presumably Bilbray would move here and run:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/448/

[freepcrusher]

looks like a 36-17 map which sounds pretty good.

[Verily]

Can someone explain the changes in San Diego? Where do they leave Susan Davis and does someone get a new district?

This is an open district, which is fairly swingy; presumably Bilbray would move here and run:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/448/

That has almost none of Bilbray's old district. Yes, it's not super-Democratic, but it's still D+3, and he'd be effectively running as a non-incumbent. I think he challenges Darrell Issa in the primary; the district in which they were both placed (http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/433/) contains about equal parts of each of their districts (Carlsbad and Encinitas from Bilbray, Oceanside from Issa), plus a bunch of territory that is new for both of them in Orange County, and Issa is a strange person and not a strong incumbent.

A big chunk of Bilbray's old district, the most Republican part, is also in Hunter's district, so I suppose he could run in the primary there, too.

[freepcrusher]

actually the D+3 district contains his home in Imperial Beach. He is still well liked there and was mayor there before being elected to the old 49th district (which covers a lot of this area) in 1994.

[krazen1211]

That has almost none of Bilbray's old district. Yes, it's not super-Democratic, but it's still D+3, and he'd be effectively running as a non-incumbent. I think he challenges Darrell Issa in the primary; the district in which they were both placed (http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/433/) contains about equal parts of each of their districts (Carlsbad and Encinitas from Bilbray, Oceanside from Issa), plus a bunch of territory that is new for both of them in Orange County, and Issa is a strange person and not a strong incumbent.

A big chunk of Bilbray's old district, the most Republican part, is also in Hunter's district, so I suppose he could run in the primary there, too.

"I will remain an effective representative for San Diegans in Congress in this proposed new district, which includes Poway and the city of San Diego. The new boundaries also include where I was born, Coronado," Bilbray said in a statement Friday night. "I intend to run for reelection in this district"


http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/448/

No, he's running in the vacant seat. He represented portions of this in the 90s. Should be an easy enough win; Republicans mostly dominated downballot here, and the GOP even has a voter registration advantage.

[Torie]

Can someone explain the changes in San Diego? Where do they leave Susan Davis and does someone get a new district?

EDIT: thanks to the link above, it looks like Bilbray and Issa are in a primary and a new Republican district was created that covers the south coast.

Nah the south coast CD is mine, and seems to have been drawn to make it have the highest median income possible. 

It's CA-48, the John Campbell CD.

[Verily]

actually the D+3 district contains his home in Imperial Beach. He is still well liked there and was mayor there before being elected to the old 49th district (which covers a lot of this area) in 1994.

Homes are marked on the map; he lives in Issa's district. But, fair enough that he is running in the other seat. It certainly isn't all that safe for him, though, considering the close races he's run in a safer seat before. We'll see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lots of info to browse through so I'll just ask: What type of seat did McNerney get?

[Verily]

Lots of info to browse through so I'll just ask: What type of seat did McNerney get?

He's either in a primary in a safe seat with Pete Stark, or he moves to Stockton (or Antioch) and runs in a seat that is maybe slightly more favorable than his current one. I suppose if he favors a challenge he could go for the open seat that contains Tracy as another alternative; it's winnable.

[redcommander]

Democrats shouldn't necessarily be so confident in their chances. Even if Gallegly, Dreier, Miller, and Bilbray lose, there is a decent chance that Loretta Sanchez's district could go Republican, along with those of Harman, Capps, and the new district containing Lakewood and Paramount.

[Lunar]

Democrats shouldn't necessarily be so confident in their chances. Even if Gallegly, Dreier, Miller, and Bilbray lose, there is a decent chance that Loretta Sanchez's district could go Republican, along with those of Harman, Capps, and the new district containing Lakewood and Paramount.

The 2012 year will probably have better Hispanic turnout than 2010, fwiw.

It seems like the Dems have a lot more to smile about here, even if there are some risks of the GOP picking a couple off.

[BigSkyBob]

Democrats shouldn't necessarily be so confident in their chances. Even if Gallegly, Dreier, Miller, and Bilbray lose, there is a decent chance that Loretta Sanchez's district could go Republican, along with those of Harman, Capps, and the new district containing Lakewood and Paramount.

The 2012 year will probably have better Hispanic turnout than 2010, fwiw.

Then again, if the economy continues to enter into a double-dip, housing prices continue to fall, unemployment persists at 9%,  and the Democrats in the state legislature and offices pass the tax increases they desire,  Democrats may will have fond memories of their previous districts.

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[Lunar]

I guess, I think that's an overly simplistic way of looking at things.

Here in New York, someone could have made a similar argument in 2010 saying something like "Yeah, but with Andrew Cuomo's giant popularity and a nutjob of a Republican nominee dragging down the ticket and poisoning the Republican brand, Republicans would be lucky to do well at all"

Although the statewide races were indeed huge victories for the Democrats, as predicted in this rhetorical hypothetical, they lost more Congressional seats than any other state in the whole country.

[Verily]

Democrats shouldn't necessarily be so confident in their chances. Even if Gallegly, Dreier, Miller, and Bilbray lose, there is a decent chance that Loretta Sanchez's district could go Republican, along with those of Harman, Capps, and the new district containing Lakewood and Paramount.

Harman? (Or, rather, her successor?) No. Santa Monica was put in that district. It's probably more Democratic than it was before.

Edit: Marginally. It went from 64.4% Obama to 64.6% Obama.

Also, the Long Beach district you're talking about was 66.8% Obama.

Capps and Sanchez are the only two Democrats really made vulnerable by this map, and Capps at least is still fairly solidly favored to win reelection.

Edit again: Forgot about the Central Valley seats. Those are just kind of crazy, lots of potentially competitive races in there.

[DrScholl]

Sanchez's district is almost certain to change since the Hispanic VAP isn't majority. As for Capps, her district is the same one she won three times before and the area has grown more Democratic than it was back then, so she's fine there.

[Holmes]

Um. Is Watsonville no longer in state senator Blakeslee's district, or am I tripping balls?

[muon2]

I like the fact that there are no numbers. It takes away from the idea that a particular district belongs to a particular incumbent.

However, I am surprised that the pdf's don't have a demographic breakdown. Has anyone seen the Hispanic percentages?