US House Redistricting: California

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Does anyone think the new 47th CD will become competitive? The commission drew it to include all of Long Beach, but it also includes the wealthy areas of Belmont, Naples, and Bixby Knolls, Los Alamitos (known for its military community), Cypress, Republican leaning parts of Garden Grove, and most of the Republican stronghold of Westminster. Plus Republicans recruited a top tier candidate in Gary DeLong who is a Long Beach Councilman.

Mill Valley laughs at the idea that wealthy areas in California are automatically Republican.

[redcommander]

Does anyone think the new 47th CD will become competitive? The commission drew it to include all of Long Beach, but it also includes the wealthy areas of Belmont, Naples, and Bixby Knolls, Los Alamitos (known for its military community), Cypress, Republican leaning parts of Garden Grove, and most of the Republican stronghold of Westminster. Plus Republicans recruited a top tier candidate in Gary DeLong who is a Long Beach Councilman.

Mill Valley laughs at the idea that wealthy areas in California are automatically Republican.

Well Long Beach isn't exactly a Santa Monica or Brentwood, so it is reasonable to suspect that there are Republican portions of it. It's not as if the city doesn't elect Republicans, since there is at least one one the city council (DeLong like I mentioned). I know it would be difficult, but the commission did design the district it looks like to be potentially competitive. Otherwise they would have kept Long Beach in it, and added Carson or Lakewood in it, and left parts of Orange County out of it.

[Sbane]

The district will be competitive only if all the stars align, or there is a swing back among the Socal upper classes towards the Republicans. It's certainly not out of the question. It's not a safe Dem district, but I would think the Republicans are winning the popular vote by at least 8-10 points for this district to be competitive.

[DrScholl]

Long Beach has Republican pockets, particularly closer to Orange County, but it's still quite blue. It weighs very heavily on the district as a whole, even with Republican leaning areas in Orange.

[muon2]

My first glance seems to still show that the districts are heavily weighted towards socioeconomic grouping without overly splitting counties. That's certainly a standard redistricting principle, but the natural tendency for socioeconomic groups to sort politically as well would tend to weaken competitiveness in such a plan. Is there a PVI analysis available online yet?

[Torie]

Does anyone think the new 47th CD will become competitive? The commission drew it to include all of Long Beach, but it also includes the wealthy areas of Belmont, Naples, and Bixby Knolls, Los Alamitos (known for its military community), Cypress, Republican leaning parts of Garden Grove, and most of the Republican stronghold of Westminster. Plus Republicans recruited a top tier candidate in Gary DeLong who is a Long Beach Councilman.

Mill Valley laughs at the idea that wealthy areas in California are automatically Republican.

Well Long Beach isn't exactly a Santa Monica or Brentwood, so it is reasonable to suspect that there are Republican portions of it. It's not as if the city doesn't elect Republicans, since there is at least one one the city council (DeLong like I mentioned). I know it would be difficult, but the commission did design the district it looks like to be potentially competitive. Otherwise they would have kept Long Beach in it, and added Carson or Lakewood in it, and left parts of Orange County out of it.

The Commission should be ashamed of itself for drawing this non "communities of interest" cf, but here you go:  Dem PVI of about +6% - out of reach for the Pubbies absent unusual circumstances. I am about 18,000 residents short even though the block groups don't match the voting districts, and I spilled over the lines a bit where the voting districts were chopped, and still came up short, but it should not make much difference.

[Torie]

My first glance seems to still show that the districts are heavily weighted towards socioeconomic grouping without overly splitting counties. That's certainly a standard redistricting principle, but the natural tendency for socioeconomic groups to sort politically as well would tend to weaken competitiveness in such a plan. Is there a PVI analysis available online yet?

Yes, this might be coined the "class warfare" map. I was amazed how much economic segregation was emphasized really. In California class does not a community of interest make really. Malibu does not equal Hancock Park, and Silverlake/Los Feliz (gay young Hollywood hip) does not equal La Canada/Flintridge (Jet Propulsion Laboratory grayish haired brainiac nerd types), and on and on.

[jimrtex]

My first glance seems to still show that the districts are heavily weighted towards socioeconomic grouping without overly splitting counties. That's certainly a standard redistricting principle, but the natural tendency for socioeconomic groups to sort politically as well would tend to weaken competitiveness in such a plan. Is there a PVI analysis available online yet?

Yes, this might be coined the "class warfare" map. I was amazed how much economic segregation was emphasized really. In California class does not a community of interest make really. Malibu does not equal Hancock Park, and Silverlake/Los Feliz (gay young Hollywood hip) does not equal La Canada/Flintridge (Jet Propulsion Laboratory grayish haired brainiac nerd types), and on and on.

It was one of the fixups that got added when they added congressional redistricting.

Before it just said "community of interest".  The added language included income, and some of the other interests are less measurable.

[redcommander]

Does anyone think the new 47th CD will become competitive? The commission drew it to include all of Long Beach, but it also includes the wealthy areas of Belmont, Naples, and Bixby Knolls, Los Alamitos (known for its military community), Cypress, Republican leaning parts of Garden Grove, and most of the Republican stronghold of Westminster. Plus Republicans recruited a top tier candidate in Gary DeLong who is a Long Beach Councilman.

Mill Valley laughs at the idea that wealthy areas in California are automatically Republican.

Well Long Beach isn't exactly a Santa Monica or Brentwood, so it is reasonable to suspect that there are Republican portions of it. It's not as if the city doesn't elect Republicans, since there is at least one one the city council (DeLong like I mentioned). I know it would be difficult, but the commission did design the district it looks like to be potentially competitive. Otherwise they would have kept Long Beach in it, and added Carson or Lakewood in it, and left parts of Orange County out of it.

The Commission should be ashamed of itself for drawing this non "communities of interest" cf, but here you go:  Dem PVI of about +6% - out of reach for the Pubbies absent unusual circumstances. I am about 18,000 residents short even though the block groups don't match the voting districts, and I spilled over the lines a bit where the voting districts were chopped, and still came up short, but it should not make much difference.

If the district was under these lines in 2004, would it have voted for Bush?

[Napoleon]

Very unlikely since the Long Beach portion would be fiercely partisan.

[Verily]

Also, Vietnamese voters swung significantly to the right in 2008 due to McCain on the ticket (Vietnam veteran), and had been somewhat more D than usual in 2004 due to Kerry being a vet.

[BigSkyBob]

Also, Vietnamese voters swung significantly to the right in 2008 due to McCain on the ticket (Vietnam veteran), and had been somewhat more D than usual in 2004 due to Kerry being a vet.

Republicans run better among Cubans and Vietnamese for the same basic reason: the Democratic party delivered their fellow countrymen into repressive dictatorships. During the war, Kerry de facto gave aid and comfort to those would-be dictators. Whatever the reason Kerry ran better in 2004 is, it is not his service in Vietnam.

[Torie]

Long Beach swung at about the rate of the nation average - about 5% Dem from Kerry to Obama, and from about 65.6% Kerry to 71.0% Obama.  So not much trend in that town. It's about two thirds of CA-47 now.

[redcommander]

Are there any other possibly competitive seats that no one has brought up yet? How blue is the new CA-36? What about CA-44? Sorry, I would look up the voting stats on the Dave's redistricting app, but my computer keeps crashing when I open the website up.

[Sbane]

Also, Vietnamese voters swung significantly to the right in 2008 due to McCain on the ticket (Vietnam veteran), and had been somewhat more D than usual in 2004 due to Kerry being a vet.

Are you sure about this? IIRC Garden Grove and Westminster swung pretty heavily towards Obama, as did the rest of Orange county of course. I could be wrong though, so let me know if I am.

[nclib]

The old CA-47 swung strongly GOP in 2004 and DEM in 2008. IIRC, this CD has the most Vietnamese.

[Napoleon]

I expect the Long Beaches swing to be a result of increased Black turnout as opposed to actual swing voters.

[jimrtex]

A proposed petition for a referendum on the congressional plan has been filed with the AG.  If sufficient signatures are gathered, the plan would be suspended until after the next statewide election at which the referendum would be voted on, presumably at the June 2012 primary.

If the plans are suspended, then the primaries can not be used to choose the 2 candidates who advance to the general election.

Maybe they will be held as special elections in November 2012, like has been done in Texas.

[redcommander]

A proposed petition for a referendum on the congressional plan has been filed with the AG.  If sufficient signatures are gathered, the plan would be suspended until after the next statewide election at which the referendum would be voted on, presumably at the June 2012 primary.

If the plans are suspended, then the primaries can not be used to choose the 2 candidates who advance to the general election.

Maybe they will be held as special elections in November 2012, like has been done in Texas.

I seriously hope voters yet again keep Republicans on a lifeline by defeating that initiative. Sometimes I wonder if California Republicans actually want to win elections again.

[Torie]

I doubt if the petition will go anywhere.

[redcommander]

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/

http://elections.dailykos.com/

Rothenberg has a new analysis of possible candidates for the Dems and GOP in the California house races. Right now it's only open to subscribers though, but the Daily Kos has an outline listing of some of the candidate that Gonzales spoke about. Personally I hope Linda Parks runs in the 26th, seeing as she would bring much needed moderation to the congressional delegation if she won.

[Torie]

CA-31 is a Dem lean marginal in case anyone is interested (+3.3% Dem PVI) . The City of Riverside/Moreno Valley/Perris CD is another +6% or so Dem PVI CD.

CA-31 is the seat Baca might run in against Lewis.  It is rated as toss-up/tilt  Dem by Rothenberg, which seems about right.

[Sbane]

Yeah that district 31 is an interesting district. Another one of those swing districts. I more or less approve though San Bernardino and Colton would fit in better into the 35th.

[freepcrusher]

had prop 20 not been passed here is what the central valley would look like IMO:

District 11 is the white areas of Stockton and Modesto connected by some mountain counties. This is 57 percent white, 53 percent McCain. Dick Pombo probably runs here.

District 18 is a Stockton, Modesto, Merced district. In all my dem districts I made sure not a single precinct had a white majority. District 18 is plurality hispanic (47 or 48 percent) and around 15 percent Asian. Obama got 64 percent there. This would be Cardoza's district.

District 19 is the white areas of Tulare, King, Fresno, and Madera and Mariposa counties. Devin Nunes and Jeff Denham have been drawn together in this 55 percent white, 60 percent McCain district.

District 20 is a Fresno/Madera district. It is around 60 percent hispanic and Obama got about 61 percent here. Jim Costa would represent this district.

District 21 takes in parts of Tulare, Kings, Kern, and small port of Fresno county. It is probably in the top 10 poorest districts in the country. It is around 72 percent hispanic and Obama won here by six points. Andy Vidak probably runs against Mike Rubio here.

District 22 takes in most of Bakersfield and parts of SLO County. It is 53 percent white and 60-61 percent McCain. McCarthy would run there.

[Sbane]

Nice gerrymander. I have a nice Dem gerrymander basically done that I will post soon. Hispanics probably wouldn't like it too much though.