US House Redistricting: California

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I really don't see how the GOP is going to hold onto the current CA-03 just for starters. Maybe if they had a solid incumbent but a guy who just barely broke 50% in a wave year clearly isn't such an example.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The SSP map in the OP link seems to focus too much on counties and compactness then it looks at partisan balance. I don't see any analysis of Hispanic representation. I think that may be more of a factor than many are giving thought towards. When I looked this summer using criteria from the commission I found that I could create 18 Hispanic-majority districts, 15 of which exceeded 60% Hispanic.

Maybe the Obama DOJ won't insist so much in California if there is a better chance for the Democrats to score gains without too many VRA districts.
If they want to appease Hispanics they can do that by demanding 3 new Hispanic majority districts in Texas and a second one in Arizona.

Well Arizona and Texas are actually pre-clearance states under the VRA. California isn't and the DOJ has basically no say there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone agree Lungren is probably done?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Lungren will end up with a seat that a strong incumbent Republican could hold, but not someone who could only pull 50% in a wave year. The writing is on the wall for the guy, much like similar Republicans who went down in 2006/08 and some Democrats in 2010.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The more rural parts of Sonoma don't belong into any district but the first by any measure, really.

You mean north of Santa Rosa? How many live there?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah San Diego's conservative reputation comes from the suburbs mostly. Not surprising that all the white liberals in the area live in the city proper.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No he's right, that was the intended purpose. It's misleading to referred to gerrymandered monstrosities of majority-minority seats as "VRA districts", the VRA doesn't mandate such seats, it merely prohibits the diluting and splitting of heavily minority areas that could otherwise constitute a district. Districts like Corrine Brown's weren't being drawn until after 1990 Census.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's interesting because we have an almost majority black State House district (it probably is majority black now and almost certainly will be after redistricting) and it was roughly the same shape in the 1991 redistricting. It wouldn't be too hard to alter it a bit to get a majority black seat even back then. But I don't think most would want it, our House districts are based around neighborhoods and all and people care far more about that than race and wouldn't want weird tendrils and all that. I'm surprised it was ever controversial or an issue even in 1991.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lots of info to browse through so I'll just ask: What type of seat did McNerney get?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No one forget, the cardinal rule about redistricting is that everything is good news for Republicans, bad news for Dems.

But it's not a gerrymander either when Republicans drawn favorable maps for themselves.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ownage.