US House Redistricting: California

[All Along The Watchtower]

i kind of wanted to redistrict orange county and see if there was any differences between parts of the county. I divided the county into four quadrants. All of them were pretty 50-50 break even except for the northeast quadrant which gave McCain about 58% of the vote. Bush very well may have gotten close to 65% here. The communities here would be like Villa Park, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange and Placentia etc. What makes that part of the county so much more republican than the rest of the county?

What Torie said, though I'm a bit surprised that southern/southeast OC is not that Republican anymore. Not only is this area wealthy (places like Mission Vejo, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Rancho Santa Margarita), but it's also pretty white (like 70-80%).

[All Along The Watchtower]

I guess the GOP is dead in the Bay Area. Not even the San Ramon Valley is GOP anymore.

[All Along The Watchtower]

the final draft is out. Minor changes to the 47th and 48th districts. Sanchez's districts becomes a hispanic vote sink and Campbell's district looks like the old 47th in the 1990s in the sense that it contains Villa Park and Orange. Difference is that the coastal areas are given to Rohrabacher

Villa Park with Campbell makes sense. That area has several tracts that are over 70% white, and one that is 88% white.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The Republican Party in CA is a mostly white, rural/exurban party in an urban, cosmopolitan, multicultural state. So of course it is having trouble in CA.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I don't like that cut of SF from the north, especially by the 2nd. Overall I like the map on the right. Davis is in the 3rd in both maps, correct?

No, SF is not cut in either map (SF is cut from the south - the north thing was a Muon2 "innovation" to max his algorithm). Or did you mean SR? SR is cut in both maps, but it is disconcerting for a Marin CD  to not take Santa Rosa, while moving up north to take Eureka. On the other hand, the map on the left makes CA-02 more compact, while CA-05 basically becomes an all  SF metro CD, while CA-02 is more rural, and Marin due to its hyper tight land use controls, almost has a bucolic feel itself (Santa Rosa does not). Meanwhile, in the left side map, CA-03 basically becomes mostly a Central Valley CD, rather than a hybrid one, while CA-05 unites the wine country plus down market to middle class Contra Costa CD via down market Vallejo. so the left map is arguably better from a uniting of the distinct regions perspective (putting aside the class warfare consideration). However, the left map chops Vallejo, although in a rather logical way, but it is still a nasty chop. Yes, Davis is in CA-03 in both maps.

I assume that you can outline the pros and cons of both maps. The issue is what weight to give to them.

On balance I prefer the map on the right. In Sonoma County it steers clear of Santa Rosa and maybe Windsor. If Windsor is in the 5th and not the 2nd, even better since that is the dividing line between urban and rural area up there. Napa County going with a coastal district also is fine with me. The only other place it could go is with a Marin/Sonoma based district but even there it's not a perfect fit, especially if the district then proceeds to take in the working class areas of west Contra Costa. In the map on the right, those areas in Contra Costa are kept with Vallejo, a place that is similar, as well as Fairfield. I suppose it's not ideal that Davis is in that district but it's not as if Davis has any obvious area it should be matched with. Redding being in the 2nd is not ideal either but on balance that is the better map in my opinion.

You don't think UC Davis should be split up like it is now?