Is there a Maryland thread yet?

[Meeker]

If there is I can't find it. Anyways, this just happened: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-gilchrest-omalley-endorse-20101019,0,4913047.story

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nothing really newsworthy has come out about the race, so no, there isn't one. It's been an incredibly boring race in this sideshow of an election.

[Lunar]

like the RGA pulling money out? http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-rga-money-20101018,0,7621715.story

[Dgov]

To Gilchrest: Either quit urinating on your party or leave it.

The guy pseudo-endorsed Barack Obama in 2008, and almost single-handedly gave this seat to the Democrats.  What did you expect?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

To Gilchrest: Either quit urinating on your party or leave it.

The guy pseudo-endorsed Barack Obama in 2008, and almost single-handedly gave this seat to the Democrats.  What did you expect?

No, I'm pretty sure Andy Harris being an awful candidate from the wrong part of the district did the latter. If Pipkin had won the primary, he probably would've won.

[TheGlobalizer]

No, I'm pretty sure Andy Harris being an awful candidate from the wrong part of the district did the latter. If Pipkin had won the primary, he probably would've won.

This.  Kratovil is actually a pretty good fit for this district, whereas Harris seems a bit too shrill for the Eastern Shore and a bit too conservative for the Baltimore suburbs.

I'm not quite ready to write off Ehrlich -- if you go by yard signs and bumper stickers, you'd think he's the only candidate running.  I don't think he'll pull it out, but it's not O'Malley +10, IMO.

[HappyWarrior]

No, I'm pretty sure Andy Harris being an awful candidate from the wrong part of the district did the latter. If Pipkin had won the primary, he probably would've won.

This.  Kratovil is actually a pretty good fit for this district, whereas Harris seems a bit too shrill for the Eastern Shore and a bit too conservative for the Baltimore suburbs.

I'm not quite ready to write off Ehrlich -- if you go by yard signs and bumper stickers, you'd think he's the only candidate running.  I don't think he'll pull it out, but it's not O'Malley +10, IMO.

Well thats on the Eastern Shore, a place well known for being the last bastion for the Republicans in Maryland.

[TheGlobalizer]

Well thats on the Eastern Shore, a place well known for being the last bastion for the Republicans in Maryland.

I live in Baltimore City and work in Columbia.  I've seen three yard signs (two at gas stations) and maybe two stickers for O'Malley; dozens and dozens for Ehrlich.  I've actually seen more Ehrlich stickers in Baltimore (in neighborhoods, not commuters) than for O'Malley.  I drive I-95 every day, so I get a feel for the southern suburb commuters.

I know that sort of anecdotal evidence is a poor proxy, but it does show the enthusiasm gap pretty succinctly.

[HappyWarrior]

Well thats on the Eastern Shore, a place well known for being the last bastion for the Republicans in Maryland.

I live in Baltimore City and work in Columbia.  I've seen three yard signs (two at gas stations) and maybe two stickers for O'Malley; dozens and dozens for Ehrlich.  I've actually seen more Ehrlich stickers in Baltimore (in neighborhoods, not commuters) than for O'Malley.  I drive I-95 every day, so I get a feel for the southern suburb commuters.

I know that sort of anecdotal evidence is a poor proxy, but it does show the enthusiasm gap pretty succinctly.

For me its been the opposite, even here on the shore and in Southern Maryland I saw alot of O'Malley signs and stickers.

[Moooooo]

Well thats on the Eastern Shore, a place well known for being the last bastion for the Republicans in Maryland.

I live in Baltimore City and work in Columbia.  I've seen three yard signs (two at gas stations) and maybe two stickers for O'Malley; dozens and dozens for Ehrlich.  I've actually seen more Ehrlich stickers in Baltimore (in neighborhoods, not commuters) than for O'Malley.  I drive I-95 every day, so I get a feel for the southern suburb commuters.

I know that sort of anecdotal evidence is a poor proxy, but it does show the enthusiasm gap pretty succinctly.

I'm in the east side of Baltimore County and the visual breakdown is similar here.  Very heavy Ehrlich signage and little to no O'Malley support (my local district is 2 to 1 democrat too).  I think this largely has to do with how rabid Ehrlich's supporters are.  The Republicans put up a decent candidate statewide every -- what -- 10 years or so?  They know this will be there last statewide shot for quite some time, so they're extremely excited.

I personally think Maryland may be the single most difficult state for a Republican.  The demographics and voter registration breakdown is essentially a stacked deck in favor of the Dems.  Not to mention the ratio of public vs. private sector jobs in this state is probably the highest in the country.

I personally think Ehrlich will be much stronger in the red counties (western, eastern shore, southern) and maybe even Baltimore County.  He'll also perform margianlly better in Howard County.  I think O'Malleys margins will remain the same in Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City.  End result - O'Malley by 4% or so.  It could come down to turnout though. If PG and Balt City sit this one out (presidential election hangover), it could be much closer.

For what it's worth... my two cents on Harris vs. Kratovil.  Harris is going to ride the tide, but barely.  He'll win by less than 2%.

[politicalchick20]

No, I'm pretty sure Andy Harris being an awful candidate from the wrong part of the district did the latter. If Pipkin had won the primary, he probably would've won.

This.  Kratovil is actually a pretty good fit for this district, whereas Harris seems a bit too shrill for the Eastern Shore and a bit too conservative for the Baltimore suburbs.

I'm not quite ready to write off Ehrlich -- if you go by yard signs and bumper stickers, you'd think he's the only candidate running.  I don't think he'll pull it out, but it's not O'Malley +10, IMO.

Well thats on the Eastern Shore, a place well known for being the last bastion for the Republicans in Maryland.

I'd argue that Western Maryland is actually that place (I go to college there, so...). The Eastern Shore at least has a 50-50 registration count between the parties. Western Maryland? lol.

Southern Maryland, on the other hand, WOWED me this summer with a great deal of big green signs. It was a lovely sight to see. . I just wish I could come home before the election to see them again.

[HappyWarrior]

No, I'm pretty sure Andy Harris being an awful candidate from the wrong part of the district did the latter. If Pipkin had won the primary, he probably would've won.

This.  Kratovil is actually a pretty good fit for this district, whereas Harris seems a bit too shrill for the Eastern Shore and a bit too conservative for the Baltimore suburbs.

I'm not quite ready to write off Ehrlich -- if you go by yard signs and bumper stickers, you'd think he's the only candidate running.  I don't think he'll pull it out, but it's not O'Malley +10, IMO.

Well thats on the Eastern Shore, a place well known for being the last bastion for the Republicans in Maryland.

I'd argue that Western Maryland is actually that place (I go to college there, so...). The Eastern Shore at least has a 50-50 registration count between the parties. Western Maryland? lol.

Southern Maryland, on the other hand, WOWED me this summer with a great deal of big green signs. It was a lovely sight to see. . I just wish I could come home before the election to see them again.

Well the thing is that the Democrats on the Eastern Shore even vote for Republicans.  And you're from Southern Maryland?

[TheGlobalizer]

I'm originally from Carroll County -- we went harder for Bush in 2004 than IDAHO did (~69% to ~68% in Idaho).

Definitely agree that Western MD is the only real GOP haven in MD.

[politicalchick20]

No, I'm pretty sure Andy Harris being an awful candidate from the wrong part of the district did the latter. If Pipkin had won the primary, he probably would've won.

This.  Kratovil is actually a pretty good fit for this district, whereas Harris seems a bit too shrill for the Eastern Shore and a bit too conservative for the Baltimore suburbs.

I'm not quite ready to write off Ehrlich -- if you go by yard signs and bumper stickers, you'd think he's the only candidate running.  I don't think he'll pull it out, but it's not O'Malley +10, IMO.

Well thats on the Eastern Shore, a place well known for being the last bastion for the Republicans in Maryland.

I'd argue that Western Maryland is actually that place (I go to college there, so...). The Eastern Shore at least has a 50-50 registration count between the parties. Western Maryland? lol.

Southern Maryland, on the other hand, WOWED me this summer with a great deal of big green signs. It was a lovely sight to see. . I just wish I could come home before the election to see them again.

Well the thing is that the Democrats on the Eastern Shore even vote for Republicans.  And you're from Southern Maryland?

True true. And yes, I'm from Southern MD. Lived there since I was 4.

[HappyWarrior]

No, I'm pretty sure Andy Harris being an awful candidate from the wrong part of the district did the latter. If Pipkin had won the primary, he probably would've won.

This.  Kratovil is actually a pretty good fit for this district, whereas Harris seems a bit too shrill for the Eastern Shore and a bit too conservative for the Baltimore suburbs.

I'm not quite ready to write off Ehrlich -- if you go by yard signs and bumper stickers, you'd think he's the only candidate running.  I don't think he'll pull it out, but it's not O'Malley +10, IMO.

Well thats on the Eastern Shore, a place well known for being the last bastion for the Republicans in Maryland.

I'd argue that Western Maryland is actually that place (I go to college there, so...). The Eastern Shore at least has a 50-50 registration count between the parties. Western Maryland? lol.

Southern Maryland, on the other hand, WOWED me this summer with a great deal of big green signs. It was a lovely sight to see. . I just wish I could come home before the election to see them again.

Well the thing is that the Democrats on the Eastern Shore even vote for Republicans.  And you're from Southern Maryland?

True true. And yes, I'm from Southern MD. Lived there since I was 4.

I'm from La Plata myself.

[timmer123]

Yes, O'Malley could very well win, but is not going to be +10 or +14 like some of these polls have shown.

Ehrlich is well liked in the state, even if he doesn't win.

The enthusiasm is def on his side, and the heavily Dem areas have notoriously low turnout.

And to whomever said it, Gilchrest didn't "pseudo-endorse" Obama, he DID endorse Obama.

This post was not newsworthy.  Gilchrest is not a Republican.

[Lunar]

Yes, O'Malley could very well win,

"could"

[HappyWarrior]

Yes, O'Malley could very well win, but is not going to be +10 or +14 like some of these polls have shown.

Ehrlich is well liked in the state, even if he doesn't win.

The enthusiasm is def on his side, and the heavily Dem areas have notoriously low turnout.
And to whomever said it, Gilchrest didn't "pseudo-endorse" Obama, he DID endorse Obama.

This post was not newsworthy.  Gilchrest is not a Republican.

Actually early voting has been incredibly high in Democratic areas and here on the shore Republicans are shifting focus away from Ehrlich and on to Harris and local people.

[TheGlobalizer]

FWIW, I've seen a lot more O'Malley signs/stickers since I last posted.  I actually wouldn't be shocked by a +10.

What little I've heard of Ehrlich this year has given me the impression that he's a little too in love with speaking to the traditional GOP base.  I've heard little discussion of spending caps/cuts, but plenty of tax cut discussion, which leaves the obvious "so how are you gonna pay for it" line of argument.

Even in MD, there are a fair amount of moderates/centrists that are looking for Tea Party-esque perspectives, without the social conservative gibberish -- Chris Christie is quite well-liked in mainstream conservative circles here.  I think he would have been wise to add a bit more of that vibe into his messaging.

He also has come off as quite bitter about MD as a Dem state and about O'Malley's prior win over him, which never helps win over voters.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yes, O'Malley could very well win, but is not going to be +10 or +14 like some of these polls have shown.

Ehrlich is well liked in the state, even if he doesn't win.

The enthusiasm is def on his side, and the heavily Dem areas have notoriously low turnout.

*ahem* So then.

[politicalchick20]

Yes, O'Malley could very well win, but is not going to be +10 or +14 like some of these polls have shown.

Ehrlich is well liked in the state, even if he doesn't win.

The enthusiasm is def on his side, and the heavily Dem areas have notoriously low turnout.

*ahem* So then.