US House Redistricting: Indiana
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  US House Redistricting: Indiana
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Indiana  (Read 27690 times)
MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2011, 07:40:52 PM »

Also remember neither the first or seventh are VRA protected. When we lost our tenth the Dems also divided Kokomo from it's more Republican historical district mates. So we can carve Indy if we want to. That is if Gov Daniels allows.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: January 06, 2011, 08:31:01 PM »

I think you may find that a few more people live in Indianapolis than Kokomo.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #27 on: January 06, 2011, 11:20:55 PM »

I am aware of that. That's why it Indy must be split in four
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DrScholl
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« Reply #28 on: January 07, 2011, 12:02:23 AM »

Getting greedy will backfire. It's been mentioned more than once on this thread that dividing Indianapolis did nothing to help Republicans.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #29 on: January 07, 2011, 10:10:55 AM »

You do know that had the GOP had redistricting control in 2001, Indy would've got split up drastically instead of the monstrosity of a map we have now.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #30 on: January 07, 2011, 01:25:16 PM »

Indy needs a packed district not a split. Putting that many Dems into the surronding districts could mean a delegation with 5 or 6 Brad Ellsworths and Joe Donnelly's.

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MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #31 on: January 07, 2011, 09:40:23 PM »

Ok but is there any way to make the "Indy" District to where it could be won by a Republican?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #32 on: January 07, 2011, 10:38:34 PM »

Ok but is there any way to make the "Indy" District to where it could be won by a Republican?

Yes.  Get rid of the black people.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #33 on: January 07, 2011, 11:07:50 PM »

I think there are enough conservative blacks to maybe toss it up.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #34 on: January 08, 2011, 12:10:52 AM »

There are many blacks with conservative views, but they never vote Republican and I know plenty of people like that. Putting areas of Indianapolis that vote reflexively in IN-8 and IN-9 would certainly weaken them.
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Torie
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« Reply #35 on: January 15, 2011, 01:05:08 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2011, 02:04:00 PM by Torie »

It turns out that in the existing Indianapolis CD (IN-07), there are some McCain precincts, or some marginal ones. They have been removed to max the Dem pack in Marion County. So that enables IN-07 to pick up Bloomington, which is a very beautiful thing indeed.

IN-01 is of course a max Dem pack too, per Torie SOP. For South Bend, I just picked up all the precincts that had a significant black percentage as a proxy for finding the Dems (along of course with picking up the precincts immediately around Notre Dame University), rather than look each precinct up.

For Marion County (and Lake County along the edges of IN-01, it as another precinct by precinct job. There is no other substitute for doing that, when exploring what are the possibilities are. Indeed, for Marion County, it was only by doing that, and culling out acceptable precincts to put in a Pubbie CD, that I was able to pack in Bloomington, finding of course the lightly populated precincts to get down there. Interestingly, except to the east in Marion County, and one prong to the north (probably the paths of black expansion), the existing map from 10 years ago, is still pretty good as a dividing line between where the Pubbies are, and the Dems - good but far from "perfect."

If this map were adopted, there will be next to zero suspense as to which party will win which CD's in Indiana for the next ten years. And except for the minor exception of the gold and yellow CD's, I made everything less erose, and respected county boundaries, and was just really a good boy and civic minded citizen all around. Perhaps after PA, I got my fill of erosity - for the moment. Tongue And there you have it.






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krazen1211
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« Reply #36 on: January 15, 2011, 01:52:03 PM »

Joe Donnelly is playing the only card he has; the "I'm going to run for governor if you don't give me a district" card.

It worked for Sherrod Brown 10 years ago.
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Torie
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« Reply #37 on: January 15, 2011, 02:02:28 PM »

Joe Donnelly is playing the only card he has; the "I'm going to run for governor if you don't give me a district" card.

It worked for Sherrod Brown 10 years ago.

It won't work this time. He's done.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #38 on: January 15, 2011, 02:10:54 PM »

Getting rid of Bloomington will remove any problems for the GOP in IN-9.  But what has been done about the bloody eighth?  The rest of the map is obviously very good.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #39 on: January 15, 2011, 02:59:43 PM »

Certainly you could cover your tracks a little better by putting the South Indy precincts in CD6 instead of that green monster?
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Torie
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« Reply #40 on: January 15, 2011, 03:53:53 PM »

Certainly you could cover your tracks a little better by putting the South Indy precincts in CD6 instead of that green monster?

No, that screws up the map elsewhere, and there is a certain elegance in IN-05 taking in the inner suburbs of Indianapolis, and some of what used to be suburbs in Marion County.  It may be that IN-06 could be bounced out of its few precincts in east Marion County, just to complete the thought. Would that make you happier?
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Torie
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« Reply #41 on: January 15, 2011, 04:08:03 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2011, 04:35:29 PM by Torie »

Getting rid of Bloomington will remove any problems for the GOP in IN-9.  But what has been done about the bloody eighth?  The rest of the map is obviously very good.

Well Sam old chap, you don't miss much do you?  Are you a lawyer or something?

The stats are below, and yes, IN-08 having now done the estimated calcs, is about a Pubbie point short of my hopes and dreams. Sure, it is a 52.28% McCain CD, up about 30 basis points, and probably around a 56.5% Bush 2004 CD, and that more than meets my standards. But yes, a law and order Tory Dem sheriff from Evansville, might be able to take down an eccentric and ineffectual incumbent with certain odd religious quirks, but surely that is unlikely right?  Tongue

And IN-04 does have a few Pubbies to spare. But to ship them down south, would require IN-04 having to pick up some carefully selected precincts in Vigo County (Terre Haute - by the way did you know Terre Haute had a higher population in 1900 than now?), with IN-08 getting in exchange some precincts in Morgan County (leaving a strand so CD-04 can get down and pick up some marginal precincts in Monroe County, unless we do a more extension redraw, and CD-08 also picks up west Monroe County).  Whether the Pubbies really want to do that, is a close question I would think. How strong is the new Pubbie in IN-08?  Surely he is better than the H man was back when no?

What do you think the Pubbie preference would be Sam? Incumbents don't like wading into strange new territory, particularly urban territory, unless they are told that they have to, for the good of the "cause." That is one thing of which our mappers here need to take more cognizance, IMO. Try to keep the CD's in general as close as possible to what they were before for incumbents that you are trying to protect, absent more compelling considerations. That is why in my maps now, I use the "Old CD" button, and then get just the right color depth, so one can see in each CD what territory is new, and what is more familiar to it (based on color shading variations). It is an important consideration. And the first thing I do, is have Dave Bradlee's utility map display for me the old CD's, and then I adjust those.

I guess I will put up an alternative map in due course, but it will take looking up precincts in Vigo County. Boo!  Sad

By the way, I wonder where the incumbent in IN-04 lives. Does anyone know off hand? That CD moved around enough, that he may have been accidentally excised from his CD.

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #42 on: January 15, 2011, 04:30:49 PM »

Terre Haute - by the way did you know Terre Haute had a higher population in 1900 than now?
Yes.
One of the worst declined cities that rarely if ever gets mentioned anywhere is Saint Joseph, Missouri, by the by.

And I suppose I'll have to do it myself to see what the problem with my suggested amendation is.
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Torie
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« Reply #43 on: January 15, 2011, 04:38:58 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2011, 04:40:58 PM by Torie »

Terre Haute - by the way did you know Terre Haute had a higher population in 1900 than now?
Yes.
One of the worst declined cities that rarely if ever gets mentioned anywhere is Saint Joseph, Missouri, by the by.

And I suppose I'll have to do it myself to see what the problem with my suggested amendation is.

Yes, St. Joseph saw its heyday when the Pony Express was in full swing, and has been in decline ever since, basically. Smiley

Good luck with your map, Lewis. I look forward to reviewing it. If you want me to email to you my data file, I would be happy to do so, so you can work from it, assuming you don't think my map in general is a piece of trash (from the Pubbie perspective obviously; this is not a civics exercise). Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #44 on: January 15, 2011, 04:40:44 PM »

Or you could just tell me how much rural territory the district would have to take in instead and what that would do to the partisan breakdowns. Tongue
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muon2
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« Reply #45 on: January 15, 2011, 04:43:24 PM »

Certainly you could cover your tracks a little better by putting the South Indy precincts in CD6 instead of that green monster?

No, that screws up the map elsewhere, and there is a certain elegance in IN-05 taking in the inner suburbs of Indianapolis, and some of what used to be suburbs in Marion County.  It may be that IN-06 could be bounced out of its few precincts in east Marion County, just to complete the thought. Would that make you happier?

How much does it screw up the map/PVI to shift some counties south of Ft Wayne to CD5 in exchange for some of the south suburbs of Indy to CD 6?
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Torie
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« Reply #46 on: January 15, 2011, 04:44:37 PM »

Or you could just tell me how much rural territory the district would have to take in instead and what that would do to the partisan breakdowns. Tongue

I will blank out the precincts that are in IN-05 for you in south Marion, and tell you what the population number is for that area. How about that?  My guess is that the precincts are about 55-45 McCain, but that is just a guess. I was focusing on finding Pubbie acceptable  precincts inside IN-07, or unacceptable Dem precincts outside, and not so much just how Pubbie this south sector of IN-05 actually was, after I had completed my handiwork.
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Verily
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« Reply #47 on: January 15, 2011, 04:46:33 PM »

Young lives in Bloomington, Torie. You've cut him out of his district and given it to Pence.
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Torie
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« Reply #48 on: January 15, 2011, 04:53:45 PM »

Young lives in Bloomington, Torie. You've cut him out of his district and given it to Pence.

CD-06 does not impinge on Monroe County. Did you mean to say something else Verily?
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Torie
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« Reply #49 on: January 15, 2011, 04:56:54 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2011, 05:03:01 PM by Torie »

Certainly you could cover your tracks a little better by putting the South Indy precincts in CD6 instead of that green monster?

No, that screws up the map elsewhere, and there is a certain elegance in IN-05 taking in the inner suburbs of Indianapolis, and some of what used to be suburbs in Marion County.  It may be that IN-06 could be bounced out of its few precincts in east Marion County, just to complete the thought. Would that make you happier?

How much does it screw up the map/PVI to shift some counties south of Ft Wayne to CD5 in exchange for some of the south suburbs of Indy to CD 6?

It would make IN-03 more Pubbie, and way over Pubbied, and IN-06 more Dem. Thus I deliberately avoided that. The three counties south of Ft. Wayne (Allen County) are heavily Pubbie, like 62% McCain, while the south Marion County precincts are more like 55% McCain as a guess, although I am not sure. It could be a bit plus or minus from that. So we would be going backwards, and to me that makes no sense because we want a third CD to wander in to Marion County.  IN-06 has a bit of work to do as it is, neutralizing some Dem areas. McCain only got about 53% in the old IN-06, and the areas it lost to IN-09 are pretty heavily Pubbie, and even though it got some Pubbie east Indianapolis exurbs, they are not the prime Pubbie areas, so I don't think IN-06 got any more Pubbie with its new lines.
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