US House Redistricting: Indiana

[Torie]

If you have a saved map, it will open up with whatever numbers you were using before. You'd have to redo it to update it with the 2010 census numbers.

I was afraid that you were going to say that. I have already redrawn that map about 10 f'ing times!  Boo! 

[Torie]

Here is a new CD map for Indiana, revised to reflect the actual census numbers which became available for Indiana in the past fortnight or so. The Dems won't like it - at all. Among other things, there are very few Dem precincts left for IN-01 to suck up now, and even those not sucked up in the IN-01 sweep are not really very Dem in any event; 55-45 stuff. So IN-02 is now very close to 54% McCain, and might have even hit it [addendum: it did hit it]. Meanwhile, IN-09 becomes one of the most GOP CD's in the nation north of the Mason Dixon line (it got even more GOP, taking in another slug of hyper GOP precincts in Johnson County).  Basically, very little money will be spend on General CD elections in Indiana for the next 10 years if this map is adopted, absent highly unusual circumstances. I will put up the stats in due course. [Now up.] Thanks heavens the Marion County precinct returns are in copy and paste spreadsheet form, so I can do searches, and sorts, and stuff to cherry pick efficiently. I sorted by percent McCain, and went from there. Without the sort function on excel, I would have given up this endeavor long ago.

[Torie]

Final stats are up for Indiana now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And here's what the Republicans have proposed:

[Torie]

Man, they left a lot of points on the table, and left IN-02 and IN-08 rather marginal. And they put Burton in the Indianapolis CD, IN-O7, along with all those Pubbies in south Marion County.  In a word, the map sucks! 

[Verily]

Pretty sure Burton lives on the north side of Marion County, although I agree that the split of Marion is odd (isolates some Republican areas in the south while taking in some marginal-to-Democratic areas on the north side).

About what I expected, though. A little less aggressive in going after Donnelly, but that by that much.

And, Torie, this is about what you should be expecting. Legislatures are generally speaking not willing to rip apart cities and counties willy-nilly, and there are strong pressures other than partisanship that usually prevent them from doing so.

[Torie]

Pretty sure Burton lives on the north side of Marion County, although I agree that the split of Marion is odd (isolates some Republican areas in the south while taking in some marginal-to-Democratic areas on the north side).

About what I expected, though. A little less aggressive in going after Donnelly, but that by that much.

And, Torie, this is about what you should be expecting. Legislatures are generally speaking not willing to rip apart cities and counties willy-nilly, and there are strong pressures other than partisanship that usually prevent them from doing so.

I looked up Burton's address via a title company. I know exactly where he lives, unless he moved, or resides in a rental, while owning a home on the south side near the airport (about 3 miles or so to the east).

Yes, I guess they draw in Indiana differently than they do in Pennsylvania and Ohio, and a lot of other states, where it is chop city. Granted, Indiana is so GOP overall, that the Pubbies can afford the point waste, in a way that does not obtain for more marginal states.

[Verily]

Ohio is not extreme. They won't come close to your map. Pennsylvania is pretty extreme but incompetent in their extreme gerrymandering.

[Torie]

Ohio is not extreme. They won't come close to your map. Pennsylvania is pretty extreme but incompetent in their extreme gerrymandering.

Well I am  0 for 1 so far, but Ohio has imperatives that Indiana does not, including a lot of vulnerable incumbent Pubbie butt being on the line.

Pence was bounced from his home as well, in IN-06. I guess he is running for governor. In fact IN-06 looks like a marginal CD now since it has Monroe County in it, with only one and a half heavily GOP suburban Indianapolis counties in it (not enough), before wandering pointlessly to the Ohio River. It just doesn't make any sense at all.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I tried to crunch the numbers for IN-02, 08, and 09, but I couldn't find any precinct-level data, so I had to leave split counties out:

Without LaPorte and Kosciusko, the new IN-02 went 49.7 - 48.9 Obama. I don't know the partisan leanings of the part of LaPorte that was left in, but Kosciusko is heavily Republican, so it probably flips to a McCain district, although barely.

IN-08 actually got improved slightly, it's now 50.5 - 48.0 McCain, where before it was 51-47 McCain.

IN-09, on the other hand, is strengthened for the Republicans. Without the parts of Morgan and Scott, it's 51.8 - 46.8 McCain, and with those two it probably ups the Republican performance by a percent or so.

[krazen1211]

Man, they left a lot of points on the table, and left IN-02 and IN-08 rather marginal. And they put Burton in the Indianapolis CD, IN-O7, along with all those Pubbies in south Marion County.  In a word, the map sucks! 

Yep, it stinks. Maybe they're afraid of the fleebaggers, but they shouldn't be.

[Verily]

Ohio is not extreme. They won't come close to your map. Pennsylvania is pretty extreme but incompetent in their extreme gerrymandering.

Well I am  0 for 1 so far, but Ohio has imperatives that Indiana does not, including a lot of vulnerable incumbent Pubbie butt being on the line.

Pence was bounced from his home as well, in IN-06. I guess he is running for governor. In fact IN-06 looks like a marginal CD now since it has Monroe County in it, with only one and a half heavily GOP suburban Indianapolis counties in it (not enough), before wandering pointlessly to the Ohio River. It just doesn't make any sense at all.

Pence lives in Bartholomew County, which is still in IN-06.

[DrScholl]

This is pretty much would I imagined would be proposed, Daniels didn't want to get crazy with the map.

[Torie]

Ohio is not extreme. They won't come close to your map. Pennsylvania is pretty extreme but incompetent in their extreme gerrymandering.

Well I am  0 for 1 so far, but Ohio has imperatives that Indiana does not, including a lot of vulnerable incumbent Pubbie butt being on the line.

Pence was bounced from his home as well, in IN-06. I guess he is running for governor. In fact IN-06 looks like a marginal CD now since it has Monroe County in it, with only one and a half heavily GOP suburban Indianapolis counties in it (not enough), before wandering pointlessly to the Ohio River. It just doesn't make any sense at all.

Pence lives in Bartholomew County, which is still in IN-06.

Yes, when I typed that, I did not realize that his CD had been rather totally transformed, and now went to the Ohio River, and had been made close to marginal. As I said, the map is quite insane really.

[Brittain33]

Pence was bounced from his home as well, in IN-06. I guess he is running for governor. In fact IN-06 looks like a marginal CD now since it has Monroe County in it, with only one and a half heavily GOP suburban Indianapolis counties in it (not enough), before wandering pointlessly to the Ohio River. It just doesn't make any sense at all.

It picks up some Republican suburbs of Louisville down at the Ohio River.

[Iosif]

A balanced, reasonable map.

The bastards!

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

This map is to conciliatory to the Dems. Though it does put Indy in play for the GOP.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This map is to conciliatory to the Dems. Though it does put Indy in play for the GOP.

No it doesn't.

[krazen1211]

This map is to conciliatory to the Dems. Though it does put Indy in play for the GOP.

It actually looks like they went sort of wild with the legislative maps (Monroe County is cracked 5 ways?) and went the 'good governance' route with the congressional map.

Really odd choice.

[Nichlemn]

This map is to conciliatory to the Dems. Though it does put Indy in play for the GOP.

It actually looks like they went sort of wild with the legislative maps (Monroe County is cracked 5 ways?) and went the 'good governance' route with the congressional map.

Really odd choice.

Not really. The legislators may want to produce "good government" bona fides for the districts of other people, but they first and foremost want to protect themselves.

[Verily]

Pence was bounced from his home as well, in IN-06. I guess he is running for governor. In fact IN-06 looks like a marginal CD now since it has Monroe County in it, with only one and a half heavily GOP suburban Indianapolis counties in it (not enough), before wandering pointlessly to the Ohio River. It just doesn't make any sense at all.

It picks up some Republican suburbs of Louisville down at the Ohio River.

You both seem to be very confused. Pence's seat, IN-06, is the one in the SE corner of the state. It contains neither Bloomington/Monroe County nor any Louisville suburbs and is overall almost certainly the most Republican district on the map. (It's the only one to contain no counties that voted for Obama.)

IN-09 contains both and is Young's seat--and it has to contain Bloomington because Young lives there (and is still around R+6 or so, maybe winnable for Baron Hill if he runs again but probably not).

[Brittain33]

Pence was bounced from his home as well, in IN-06. I guess he is running for governor. In fact IN-06 looks like a marginal CD now since it has Monroe County in it, with only one and a half heavily GOP suburban Indianapolis counties in it (not enough), before wandering pointlessly to the Ohio River. It just doesn't make any sense at all.

It picks up some Republican suburbs of Louisville down at the Ohio River.

You both seem to be very confused. Pence's seat, IN-06, is the one in the SE corner of the state. It contains neither Bloomington/Monroe County nor any Louisville suburbs and is overall almost certainly the most Republican district on the map. (It's the only one to contain no counties that voted for Obama.)

IN-09 contains both and is Young's seat--and it has to contain Bloomington because Young lives there (and is still around R+6 or so, maybe winnable for Baron Hill if he runs again but probably not).

I couldn't read the numbers on the map, so I assumed we were talking about Young's seat.

[Torie]

OK, my mistake. It's IN-09 (rather than IN-06) that is one rather sick Pubbie puppy - needlessly. I think of IN-09 as taking the SE corner of the state, but it has been dislodged from that position.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

This map is to conciliatory to the Dems. Though it does put Indy in play for the GOP.

No it doesn't.

It would put Rokita in a race against Carson.
Tea Party for the flip IN-7

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This map is to conciliatory to the Dems. Though it does put Indy in play for the GOP.

No it doesn't.

It would put Rokita in a race against Carson.
Tea Party for the flip IN-7

Yeah, because Rokita wouldn't just run in his current district.