US House Redistricting: Indiana

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

The proposed map in question would put him in the seventh. So he would have to face Carson if this ends up ad the final map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The proposed map in question would put him in the seventh. So he would have to face Carson if this ends up ad the final map.

Or he could just, you know, move to the district where he has the best chance of winning.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This map is to conciliatory to the Dems. Though it does put Indy in play for the GOP.

No it doesn't.

It would put Rokita in a race against Carson.
Tea Party for the flip IN-7

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7edeOEuXdMU

[Horus]

This map is to conciliatory to the Dems. Though it does put Indy in play for the GOP.

Far from it. Indy is trending Dem, and the city is getting a bit less white at that. This map might shift Carson's district a point and a half to the GOP, at most.

EDIT:

Rokita will be in Burton's district, not Carson's. IN-7 is Safe Dem.

http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/politics/new-plan-puts-rokita-in-burtons-area

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

If that's the case then the GOP might've shot themselves in the foot. Not good

[freepcrusher]

obviously this map has a like 5% chance of passing. But I wanted to show my fantasy map just for kicks. One may think its a democratic gerrymander but under this map A: republicans have five safe seats and B)the districts are fairly contiguous

[jimrtex]

Very nice.  They slice up Laporte,  Put Bloomington between the Indy and Louisville suburbs, and split southern Indiana between 3 districts.  They also put 4 districts around Marion County.

And here's what the Republicans have proposed:

[timothyinMD]

This is a very clean map that accurately reflects Indiana.

When calling some of these seats "marginal" by using 2008 Pres numbers, you're all forgetting something:  2012 Obama isn't going to come anywhere close to the 49% he got in Indiana last time.

Those 7 seats are in the bag for Repubs

[Padfoot]

This is a very clean map that accurately reflects Indiana.

When calling some of these seats "marginal" by using 2008 Pres numbers, you're all forgetting something:  2012 Obama isn't going to come anywhere close to the 49% he got in Indiana last time.

Those 7 seats are in the bag for Repubs

I think its hard to judge Indiana based on any recent presidential results including those from 2004 and 2000.  Obama was the first Democrat to make an honest effort there in a while but the McCain campaign was also caught off guard by an all-out offensive in a state that had voted reliably for Republicans in the previous 10 presidential elections.  I think it is definitely possible that Obama wins in Indiana again, especially if he increases his share of the national popular vote.  He's not just going to roll over and hand the state to the Republicans even though that sometimes appears to be his governing "strategy."

[timothyinMD]

This is a very clean map that accurately reflects Indiana.

When calling some of these seats "marginal" by using 2008 Pres numbers, you're all forgetting something:  2012 Obama isn't going to come anywhere close to the 49% he got in Indiana last time.

Those 7 seats are in the bag for Repubs

I think its hard to judge Indiana based on any recent presidential results including those from 2004 and 2000.  Obama was the first Democrat to make an honest effort there in a while but the McCain campaign was also caught off guard by an all-out offensive in a state that had voted reliably for Republicans in the previous 10 presidential elections.  I think it is definitely possible that Obama wins in Indiana again, especially if he increases his share of the national popular vote.  He's not just going to roll over and hand the state to the Republicans even though that sometimes appears to be his governing "strategy."

Considering you're a Democrat, I can see why you're optimistic about it, but don't bet on it.

Obama wont increase his nat'l popular vote, and he's going to get trounced in Indiana. 

[DrScholl]

Rather Indiana in 2008 was a fluke or not will remain to be seen, we just don't know what those numbers are going to look like. I'd say it leans GOP in 2012, but just how much is the problem.

[RI]

Regardless of whether Obama wins Indiana or not, local Democrats tend to outperform national Democrats in various parts of the state on a consistent basis. Using national data as a baseline for Congressional races tends to be fairly unrepresentative.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

We will be taking back our regular spot as the first state to declare for the GOP.

[Landslide Lyndon]

We will be taking back our regular spot as the first state to declare for the GOP.

No you won't. Kentucky will be.

[Bo]

The GOP kinda screwed up on the map here. They should have at least put South Bend in the 1st. The map would have still looked pretty neat and it would have probably made IN-02 several points more Republican.

[Dgov]

The GOP kinda screwed up on the map here. They should have at least put South Bend in the 1st. The map would have still looked pretty neat and it would have probably made IN-02 several points more Republican.

Well, there's plenty of other things they could have done to get a safe 7-2 map as well, but since they didn't I'm kind of assuming they just decided to go with a least-county-splits map.  I mean, they even drew an incumbent into a Heavily D district in Indianapolis, along with a bunch of Republicans in South indy

[Bo]

The GOP kinda screwed up on the map here. They should have at least put South Bend in the 1st. The map would have still looked pretty neat and it would have probably made IN-02 several points more Republican.

Well, there's plenty of other things they could have done to get a safe 7-2 map as well, but since they didn't I'm kind of assuming they just decided to go with a least-county-splits map.  I mean, they even drew an incumbent into a Heavily D district in Indianapolis, along with a bunch of Republicans in South indy

I saw a map on Red Racing Horses which also had very few county splits but was a much more efficient gerrymander by putting South Bend in the 1st and putting some Republican parts of southern Lake County into the 2nd. As for the 7th, they screwed up a little as well, but their screwup wasn't that bad (percentage-wise) in comparison to the 1st/2nd. The 1st could have been way more packed with Democrats.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/306/indiana-hybrid-redistricting-maps

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

The GOP kinda screwed up on the map here. They should have at least put South Bend in the 1st. The map would have still looked pretty neat and it would have probably made IN-02 several points more Republican.

Putting both Jackie and Silent Joe into the first is a royal no-no. Because that's what you would do if you put South Ben in the 1st
Also putting Rokita in the 7th and splitting Kokomo aren't things many republicans I know like all that well, but it could lead to an intresting GOP 4th district primary. It looks like I would be moved to that 4th district.

[Bo]

The GOP kinda screwed up on the map here. They should have at least put South Bend in the 1st. The map would have still looked pretty neat and it would have probably made IN-02 several points more Republican.

Putting both Jackie and Silent Joe into the first is a royal no-no. Because that's what you would do if you put South Ben in the 1st
Also putting Rokita in the 7th and splitting Kokomo aren't things many republicans I know like all that well, but it could lead to an intresting GOP 4th district primary. It looks like I would be moved to that 4th district.

Jackie Walorski can always move. Or they could have just put her house in the 2nd and the rest of South Bend into the 1st. Rokita won't run in the 7th, since it's way too Democratic for him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The numbers from DKE:

IN-01 - 63.3 Obama, 35.8 McCain
IN-02 - 49.6 Obama, 49.3 McCain
IN-03 - 56.0 McCain, 43.0 Obama
IN-04 - 54.2 McCain, 44.6 Obama
IN-05 - 52.6 McCain, 46.6 Obama
IN-06 - 55.0 McCain, 43.6 Obama
IN-07 - 66.3 Obama, 32.8 McCain
IN-08 - 50.6 McCain, 48.1 Obama
IN-09 - 52.7 McCain, 46.2 Obama

IN-05 is made quite a bit more Democratic (it was 59-40 McCain); I guess they're expecting Dan Burton to get knocked out in the primary next year, since he's so disliked, he could make that seat competitive. And I'm still surprised they didn't do anything to IN-08, since it actually moved a hair to the Democrats.

[JacobNC]

Why would Indiana Republicans do something like that?  Are they stupid, like the Arkansas Democrats?  Joe Donnely, Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth or some other moderate Democrat could easily win in at least three of those districts.

[Dgov]

Why would Indiana Republicans do something like that?  Are they stupid, like the Arkansas Democrats?  Joe Donnely, Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth or some other moderate Democrat could easily win in at least three of those districts.

Well, the do have to try to create a 7-2 Gerrymander in a state Obama won by about a point, so their margins have to be pretty thin.

[dpmapper]

Don't forget that Indiana had a 11-point swing towards the Dems from 2004 to 2008; the Obama numbers are a high-water mark for them.  All 7 districts Bush won with probably at least 60%. 

[minionofmidas]

Certainly not the Southeastern one... area didn't actually swing all that much.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

For fun, here's a Dem gerrymander:



Blue - 59-40 Obama
Green - 56-43 Obama
Purple - 62-37 McCain
Red - 55-44 Obama
Yellow - 59-39 McCain
Teal - 58-41 McCain
Grey - 68-31 Obama
Light Purple - 53-46 Obama
Sky Blue - 57-41 McCain