Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Јas]

Or are Senators not considered members of the "parliamentary party" in such elections?  (i.e. can they not vote for party leader?)

Seantors cannot vote in FF leadership elections.

Also, would the new Dáil be able to elect a new Ceann Comhairle even if Kirk wants to remain in that position?  Is the "standing down" that Rory O'Hanlon did in 2007 automatic, just that a Ceann Comhairle can be "reelected" to that position right after standing down? 

The first order of business for a new Dáil is the election of the Ceann Comhairle. There is no particular reason why Kirk couldn't be challenged.

[Јas]

On the resignation of the Green Ministers yesterday, their portfolios have been re-assigned.

Eamon Ó Cuív will take on Environment and Pat Carey will take on Communications & Energy. Both are now responsible for 3 Departments.

The Government now having but 7 members, is now at the Constitutionally minimum allowed.

[Хahar 🤔]

So, if I understand correctly, Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens all want the finance bill passed by Friday, to be followed by dissolution of the Dáil, but Lenihan doesn't think it can be done. Sinn Féin wants an immediate dissolution, with the finance bill put on hold until after the election. Fine Gael has a motion of no confidence on Tuesday, Labour on Wednesday, and Sinn Féin at some other time. Is there any chance that any of those motions pass?

BTW, in your figures at the bottom, you have the Greens listed on both sides. I'm not sure whether that's intentional or not.

[Јas]

So, if I understand correctly, Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens all want the finance bill passed by Friday, to be followed by dissolution of the Dáil, but Lenihan doesn't think it can be done. Sinn Féin wants an immediate dissolution, with the finance bill put on hold until after the election. Fine Gael has a motion of no confidence on Tuesday, Labour on Wednesday, and Sinn Féin at some other time.

Your understanding is correct.

Is there any chance that any of those motions pass?

Depends largely on how the discussions go regarding the Finance Bill.

If they go well, the motions will be withdrawn/postponed. If not, yes they could pass, but may not - depends largely on what the Greens decide.

BTW, in your figures at the bottom, you have the Greens listed on both sides. I'm not sure whether that's intentional or not.

Thanks, corrected now.

[Јas]

journal.ie this morning have a list of declared supporters for the 4 FF leadership candidates. 

18 Martin
  4 Ó Cuív
  3 Lenihan
  3 Hanafin

43 undeclared

So, Martin well out in front. His supporters reportedly think that it's as good as wrapped up.

[You kip if you want to...]

So, Martin well out in front. His supporters reportedly think that it's as good as wrapped up.

I don't know about Ireland, but these things very rarely are.

[Јas]

The talks on the Finance Bill achieved resolution last night. FF, FG, Labour and the Greens agreed on a timetable such that the bill will pass on Saturday. (SF objected to what they have dubbed the "consensus on cuts".)

The Taoiseach will then dissolve the Dáil, at some point between Saturday and the next scheduled Dáil meeting on Tuesday - at which point if he fails to dissolve, the opposition will renew their motions of no confidence that would bring down the Government.

The expected date of the election remains Cowen's prerogative, but 25 February is deemed most likely.

[Јas]

So, Martin well out in front. His supporters reportedly think that it's as good as wrapped up.

I don't know about Ireland, but these things very rarely are.

journal.ie's numbers this morning:
24 Martin
  5 Lenihan
  4 Ó Cuív
  3 Hanafin

35 undeclared

The Irish Times have Martin on 26, Lenihan on 6 - but without complete lists.

[Јas]

For the last two General Elections, RTÉ have organised debates for the leaders of FF and FG.
In the last election, they had a supplementary debate for the leaders of Labour, Greens, PDs and SF.

Details of RTÉ's debate(s) this time are not yet agreed, but it seems interest is spreading exponentially.

It seems TV3, TG4 (Ireland's Irish language terrestrial TV station) and, surprisingly, Sky News are all reported to be seeking debates. The Irish Times reports that TV3 want a debate among the leaders of FF, FG and Labour; while Sky propose one between all 5 parties present in the Dáil.

TG4 could be interesting - I think all the leaders have at least reasonable grasps of Irish - but to debate in irish would be a challenge.

[ilikeverin]

I would watch that for the entertainment value.

[Јas]

A pre-election primer from the Crooked Timber blog.

[Јas]

I would watch that for the entertainment value.

I fear such value would see remarkably rapid decreasing marginal returns as the debate progressed.

[minionofmidas]

Breaking News: The Irish Green party withdraw from coaltion

The only part of this thread to have made it into the pages of the Trierischer Volksfreund.

[ilikeverin]

I would watch that for the entertainment value.

I fear such value would see remarkably rapid decreasing marginal returns as the debate progressed.

But... but... lolololol: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsBv1ukVp9U

[minionofmidas]

Watching that and then this, I can't help but feel that the bloke in the second video is speaking Irish with an Irish accent.

[Хahar 🤔]

There's as much English in that as there is in my Bengali. I'm disappointed.

[Јas]

The Finance Bill, the only legislative matter left for consideration by the 30th Dáil, passed the second stage vote in the house this morning.

There had been considerable speculation about the votes of Government supporting independents Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae, and the vote of Mattie McGrath, who left FF a few days ago.

Vote result...

For		Against
Fianna Fáil	70	Fine Gael	49
Greens	6	Labour	20
Mary Harney	1	Sinn Féin	5
Michael Lowry	1	Finian McGrath	1
Jackie Healy-Rae	1	Maureen O’Sullivan	1
Joe Behan	1	Noel Grealish	1
		Matty McGrath	1
	80		78

Lowry managed to get a few relatively minor amendments passed that sated him and Healy-Rae.

Mattie McGrath voted against on the initial electronic vote, but a call was made under the standing orders for a full traditional walk-through the lobby vote - on which McGrath abstained.

Anyway, the vote means that it's now very likely that the bill will pass as scheduled, by the end of this week.


Edit (Additional Footnote):
It might be noted that 2 FF TDs were absent for the vote, Dermot Ahern (who was [and for all I know, may still be] in hospital recently; and Noel Treacy.

They were officially paired by FG (Padraic McCormack and Michael Creed). FG withdrew pairing arrangements earlier in this Dáil because, of course, they wanted to bring down the Government. Some might see such a renewed pairing as exemplaring that despite their protests to the contrary, they really do want this Finance Bill to be passed.

[Јas]

Micheál Martin has won the FF leadership.
Not sure if the full results will be made available.

[afleitch]

So the Titanic has a new captain; after it has sunk.

[Јas]

The Irish Times reports the counts in the FF leadership as:

	Rd1	Rd2	Rd3
Martin	33	36	50
Ó Cuív	15	18	22
Lenihan	14	18
Hanafin	10

[Verily]

Any thoughts on whether FF's polling position will improve as a result? Will they at least scrape second place with Martin at the helm, or is Ireland not ready to give them a second chance?

[minionofmidas]

Second place? That would be quite the dramatic turnaround.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

To panicly throw-out your leader a month before the election, only creates a greater feeling of crisis and failure and I doubt it'll save FF in any way. I don't think that there's any Irish voter out there who thinks that FF is just fine all it needed to do was dump Cowen. But then I'm no expert on Irish politics, and FF is a traditionally  and historicly strong party and I guess there's a small chance that some of the old faithfuls will come back around now that Cowen's gone.

[Verily]

Well, I don't know, this sort of thing has saved other parties that looked in danger of utter collapse elsewhere. Often it doesn't help much in the long-term (see: Japan's LDP, Canada's PCs), but it does usually cause a short-term boost. Considering the election is only a month or so away, that short-term boost could be all Fianna Fail needs to survive (because I doubt the party itself could survive a third or fourth place finish).

[Harry Hayfield]

Any thoughts on whether FF's polling position will improve as a result? Will they at least scrape second place with Martin at the helm, or is Ireland not ready to give them a second chance?

There has not been a poll since Martin's election, but the last poll (conducted on January 22nd) suggested that FF were on 9% (the same as Sinn Fein). For FF to come second in the popular vote would mean a swing from FG to FF of about 11%. Seeing as compared with that last election in 2007, the FF to FG swing is 18.5% that does seem a little unlikely.