Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[minionofmidas]

Ugh. Looks like FF might actually manage a second place finish in either votes or seats (and getting one, or even just barely missing out on one, is presumably enough to remain viable and credible.)

I hear we'll probably get an official dissolution tuesday?

[Јas]

Ugh. Looks like FF might actually manage a second place finish in either votes or seats (and getting one, or even just barely missing out on one, is presumably enough to remain viable and credible.)

It's now firmly back within the range of possibilities - but they've a way to go yet.
They should be fairly transfer toxic still, so, even with improved numbers it would still an uphill task.

I hear we'll probably get an official dissolution tuesday?

Yeah, Dáil reconvenes Tuesday and Cowen has said he'll announce the dissolution then. No confirmation on the date for the General Election - but 25 February is generally presumed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, but Labour's organisational weakness in certain parts of the country could easily mean that...

[Oakvale]

Hopefully the slight FF bounce (and Martin's depressingly high ranking) is just a brief honeymoon effect and I won't have to flee the country.

Although given that the election's so soon a "honeymoon" period would probably save Fianna Fáil from annihilation.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yeah, but Labour's organisational weakness in certain parts of the country could easily mean that...

If it´s compensation if FF do get 16% of the vote then they will reduced to practically nothing in Dublin and their local organization in the capital has essentially collapsed over the last twenty years (see: the last local elections for evidence).

[DistingFlyer]

Cowen's left it far too long - a change of leader at this date might bring a few people back, but it may drive others away as such a late change looks like panic (which it almost certainly is).
If Cowen wanted to save his party he should have quit six months ago at least, and preferably a year. A new leader now might give them a bit of a poll bounce, but it won't last long enough (or be substantial enough) to benefit them come polling day.
There was a mention of Brian Mulroney's late departure in 1993 (and Pierre Trudeau's retirement in 1984 also bears similarities) - both parties had been polling abysmally for years (largely because the PM was unpopular) before the leader retired with just a few months to go. The new leaders got a temporary bounce in the polls, but those always wear off pretty fast and there was no time for them to build up any real, solid support. Both parties got their biggest beatings in their history as a consequence, but if the old leaders had quit a year earlier they could have been avoided. It's the same thing in Ireland now - the crash has probably made Fianna Fail's reelection impossible, but their long slide beforehand was mainly due to Brian Cowen's unpopularity. His last-minute departure is not going to help at all. They won't place second, but hopefully they will place ahead of Sinn Fein.

[You kip if you want to...]

The new leaders got a temporary bounce in the polls, but those always wear off pretty fast and there was no time for them to build up any real, solid support. Both parties got their biggest beatings in their history as a consequence

Bit like (but not the same really) Julia Gillard and Gordon Brown's 2007 Election-that-never-was.

[Јas]

I notice that I missed out on the Government satisfaction rating in the Millward Browne Lansdowne poll: 5-94-1

[Insula Dei]

I notice that I missed out on the Government satisfaction rating in the Millward Browne Lansdowne poll: 5-94-1

Is there any government in the developped world with a worse approval rate?
And if only 5% of the people apporve of the government, where's Martin going to find room to grow for even a temporary boost?

[minionofmidas]

I suppose that more reflects Brian "Useless Gobshite" Cowen's personal approval than anything else.

[minionofmidas]

Well not many of the incumbent TDs are running for reelection.

Is the gobsh!te?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well not many of the incumbent TDs are running for reelection.

Is the gobsh!te?

No: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-12329727

[patrick1]

Slan abhaile, BIFFO.

[patrick1]

Labour appear to have at least arrested their decline, while SF may have peaked. (Gerry Adams has already been, and will continue to be, questioned in an almost mocking fashion about economic questions in the Republic. Quite a few journalists have caught him out already.)

Don't you think this strategy could backfire though? A lot of working class people don't have the greatest respect for economic experts these days.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour appear to have at least arrested their decline, while SF may have peaked. (Gerry Adams has already been, and will continue to be, questioned in an almost mocking fashion about economic questions in the Republic. Quite a few journalists have caught him out already.)

Don't you think this strategy could backfire though? A lot of working class people don't have the greatest respect for economic experts these days.

True. But it's not that Adams's ideology is viewed as bananas that's the issue, it's that he clearly doesn't seem to actually understand the economic situation as is, and doesn't actually understand some of the simpler matters either (child benefit, VAT, etc.).

The media narrative has taken hold, and I don't see it shifting - every journalist Adams deals with between now and election day will try to further expose his weakness in this area - and more than a few will succeed. He can't be looking forward to debates either - the biggest story to emerge from the debates in 2007 was Adams's economic ignorance and how the others made fun of him.

That said, you're quite right in that I'm not sure how much many people care for this sort of thing - but I do think it will inhibit the potential reach of the Sinn Féin campaign and that Adams may come to be viewed as more of an electoral liability than an asset even if, as it seems, they're on course for their best result in modern times.

Maybe most people aren't big fans of a party so "passionate" about nationalism.

[Јas]

The 30th Dáil has been dissolved and a General Election will be held on Friday, 25 February.

Close of nominations will be Wednesday, 9 February.
The 31st Dáil will meet on Wednesday, 9 March.

[minionofmidas]

The 30th Dáil has been dissolved and a General Election will be held on Friday, 25 February.

Well well well. Colour me surprised. That was certainly unexpected.

[patrick1]

Labour appear to have at least arrested their decline, while SF may have peaked. (Gerry Adams has already been, and will continue to be, questioned in an almost mocking fashion about economic questions in the Republic. Quite a few journalists have caught him out already.)

Don't you think this strategy could backfire though? A lot of working class people don't have the greatest respect for economic experts these days.

True. But it's not that Adams's ideology is viewed as bananas that's the issue, it's that he clearly doesn't seem to actually understand the economic situation as is, and doesn't actually understand some of the simpler matters either (child benefit, VAT, etc.).

The media narrative has taken hold, and I don't see it shifting - every journalist Adams deals with between now and election day will try to further expose his weakness in this area - and more than a few will succeed. He can't be looking forward to debates either - the biggest story to emerge from the debates in 2007 was Adams's economic ignorance and how the others made fun of him.

That said, you're quite right in that I'm not sure how much many people care for this sort of thing - but I do think it will inhibit the potential reach of the Sinn Féin campaign and that Adams may come to be viewed as more of an electoral liability than an asset even if, as it seems, they're on course for their best result in modern times.

Thanks for the reply. While I think a hostile media and opposing parties have successfully been able to paint/prove Adams as economically weak, I just don't think it has much effect beyond making like minded people smirk. I don't think people getting their benefits cut appreciate people like Leo Varadkar  scoffing at someone's economic heft.  And FF is really in a weak position to argue about their economic expertise.

I do agree that that the current leadership does inhibit the parties' growth potential and for some time I would have liked to see leadership changes. SF finally has a chance to make itself a serious all Ireland party again and I don't think the Troubles leadership can make this happen.

[minionofmidas]

Labour appear to have at least arrested their decline, while SF may have peaked. (Gerry Adams has already been, and will continue to be, questioned in an almost mocking fashion about economic questions in the Republic. Quite a few journalists have caught him out already.)

Don't you think this strategy could backfire though? A lot of working class people don't have the greatest respect for economic experts these days.

True. But it's not that Adams's ideology is viewed as bananas that's the issue, it's that he clearly doesn't seem to actually understand the economic situation as is, and doesn't actually understand some of the simpler matters either (child benefit, VAT, etc.).

The media narrative has taken hold, and I don't see it shifting - every journalist Adams deals with between now and election day will try to further expose his weakness in this area - and more than a few will succeed. He can't be looking forward to debates either - the biggest story to emerge from the debates in 2007 was Adams's economic ignorance and how the others made fun of him.

That said, you're quite right in that I'm not sure how much many people care for this sort of thing - but I do think it will inhibit the potential reach of the Sinn Féin campaign and that Adams may come to be viewed as more of an electoral liability than an asset even if, as it seems, they're on course for their best result in modern times.

Thanks for the reply. While I think a hostile media and opposing parties have successfully been able to paint/prove Adams as economically weak, I just don't think it has much effect beyond making like minded people smirk. I don't think people getting their benefits cut appreciate people like Leo Varadkar  scoffing at someone's economic heft.  And FF is really in a weak position to argue about their economic expertise.

I do agree that that the current leadership does inhibit the parties' growth potential and for some time I would have liked to see leadership changes. SF finally has a chance to make itself a serious all Ireland party again and I don't think the Troubles leadership can make this happen.

SF relies on the Troubles mystique, and on being a party unlike any other. While they will have to transition out of that eventually (for pure demographic reasons) it needs to happen very gradually. Certainly Adams and McGuinness can't just disappear from the limelight at the same time.

[Јas]

For reasons only known to the special folk in the Irish Independent, they commissioned another poll from Millward Browne Lansdowne, published this morning, 3 days after their Sunday edition did the same.

New numbers…

	2 Feb	30 Jan	30 Jan	2007
	MBL	MBL	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	30	34	33	27
Labour	24	24	21	10
Fianna Fáil	16	16	16	42
Sinn Féin	13	10	13	7
Green	1	1	2	5
Ind/Other	15	15	15	9

So FG -4, SF +3

On such numbers SF would not be far short of FF in overall seat numbers, if they got reasonable transfers.

The first poll of the campaign proper puts FG within the margin of error of where they were at the last General Election - well done Enda! lulz

Leader Satisfaction
46 Gilmore
44 Martin
31 Adams
27 Kenny
14 Gormley
10 Cowen

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Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

[Јas]

John Cregan (FF-Limerick W) became the 36th incumbent to decide not to seek re-election yesterday. His decision is directly related to Micheál Martin's reshuffle, when he made Cregan's constituency colleague Niall Collins spoksperson of Defence.

36 is a record in modern times. 21 of those are FF - more than the total number of retirements at the last election.

[minionofmidas]

Fianna Fail's dramatic loss of support has halted but the party is still in fifth place in the capital, with just 11pc support.

Wait... who else polls 12%? ULA? You'd think 12% in Dublin would translate to more than 1% nationally, so it can't be the Greens.

[Јas]

Fianna Fail's dramatic loss of support has halted but the party is still in fifth place in the capital, with just 11pc support.

Wait... who else polls 12%? ULA? You'd think 12% in Dublin would translate to more than 1% nationally, so it can't be the Greens.

They don't specify, but I presume they're simply counting Inds/Other as equivalent to a party.

[Јas]

Turns out that yes, there is another poll out today – and remarkably, it’s another RedC poll, who also released a poll on Sunday. (This time commissioned by Paddy Power rather than the Sunday Business Post.)

The numbers, with the other polls this week…

	2 Feb	2 Feb	30 Jan	30 Jan	2007
	RedC	MBL	MBL	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	37	30	34	33	27
Labour	19	24	24	21	10
Fianna Fáil	18	16	16	16	42
Sinn Féin	12	13	10	13	7
Green	3	1	1	2	5
Ind/Other	11	15	15	15	9

FG +4, Lab -2, FF +2, SF -1, Green +1, i/O -4
Completely different shifts than were in the MBL poll this morning.

FF's best poll since September.
FG's best poll since May 2009.
Labour's worst poll since last March.

Such a result could put FG fairly close to an overall majority, if the breaks fell their way.

[Verily]

Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Suggests that the Greens are in position to hold on to seats in Dublin even with 1% of the vote, however, as they are at at least 11% there.