Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[minionofmidas]

Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Suggests that the Greens are in position to hold on to seats in Dublin even with 1% of the vote, however, as they are at at least 11% there.

You fail mathematics forever.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why has Labour been sliding in the polls?

[Verily]

Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Suggests that the Greens are in position to hold on to seats in Dublin even with 1% of the vote, however, as they are at at least 11% there.

You fail mathematics forever.

Why? The poll says that FF is at 11% in Dublin and in 5th place. Unless there's some party other than the Greens who might be ahead of FF in Dublin...

Quote from the article:

"Fianna Fail's dramatic loss of support has halted but the party is still in fifth place in the capital, with just 11pc support."

[Oakvale]

It feels wrong to steal Jas' thunder by posting this (), but the traditionally most accurate Irish Times/MRBI poll shows -

FG 33%
Labour 24%
FF 15%
Sinn Féin 12%
Green 1%
Other 15%

Seems to be more or less the currrent state of things - very close to the MB poll.

[minionofmidas]

Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Suggests that the Greens are in position to hold on to seats in Dublin even with 1% of the vote, however, as they are at at least 11% there.

You fail mathematics forever.

Why? The poll says that FF is at 11% in Dublin and in 5th place. Unless there's some party other than the Greens who might be ahead of FF in Dublin...

Quote from the article:

"Fianna Fail's dramatic loss of support has halted but the party is still in fifth place in the capital, with just 11pc support."

Because it is, of course, entirely impossible to be at 11% in Dublin while being at 1% nationally. Unless their support outside of Dublin is in net negative territory.
As to what it really means... discussed just two posts above your OP.

[Јas]

It feels wrong to steal Jas' thunder by posting this ()

Indeed - for shame!

Leadership Satisfaction
44 Gilmore
30 Kenny 
27 Adams
25 Martin
15 Gormley

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Similar detail for the other parties is in The Irish Times report.

[Јas]

For the first time ever, Fianna Fáil is not running sufficient candidates such as they could form an overall majority (i.e. 83).

Candidates Selected

	2011	2007
Fine Gael	102	90
Fianna Fáil	74	106
Labour	68	50

Filing deadline is next Wednesday, so some changes will no doubt occur between now and then - but as it stands only FG could conceivably form a single party government.

[Nichlemn]

I don't really understand the concern about running too many candidates. This isn't FPTP, vote splitting doesn't really exist. Perhaps the concern is wasting resources on multiple candidates targeting the same voters when a single candidate could focus on swing voters.

[minionofmidas]

The concern is with some voters' proven reluctance to list the full party ticket at the top of their pref.s. And with incumbents' reluctance to be thrown out by the voters in favor of their running mates.

[minionofmidas]

I'm getting an Irish election ad on our googlead bar!

"Vote No. 1 for Sean Kyne. Sean Kyne is running for Fine Gael in Galway West. Find out more" and then his website.

[Јas]

The schedule for what will be far the most extensive series of pre-election debates is coming together.

The first debate will be next Tuesday on TV3 to be moderated by the combative Vincent Browne. The leaders of FF, FG and Labour have been invited - Enda Kenny has yet to accept. TV3 say it will go ahead with or without him.

On Friday the 18th, a 5-way debate co-hosted by TV3 and Sky News to be moderated by Ursula Halligan (TV3) and Adam Boulton (Sky).

On Tuesday the 22nd, RTÉ plan a 3-way debate.

An RTÉ 5-way debate, and a TG4 Irish language 3-way debate have yet to be scheduled.

- Irish Times report

[Oakvale]

There's not really much justification for a three-way debate instead of a five-way one, IMO. I mean, it's reasonable enough considering that they're the three biggest parties, etc, etc, but Martin's got as much hope of being Taoiseach as Gormley or Adams do.

Logically if RTÉ want to have a more limited debate it should really only be between Kenny and Gilmore, since the election's more or less going to be about jostling for influence in the inevitable FG/Labour coalition.

[Јas]

According to RTÉ, Enda Kenny has decided that TV3's designated moderator for Tuesday's debate, Vincent Browne, is unacceptable.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Browne's comment was made in the context of the last leadership challenge to Kenny. He subsequently issued an apology.

It might also be noted that Kenny has refused to appear on Browne's show for years, I presume due to Browne's combative nature (think Paxman+). He is though perfectly capable of fair moderation.

[Јas]

There's not really much justification for a three-way debate instead of a five-way one, IMO. I mean, it's reasonable enough considering that they're the three biggest parties, etc, etc, but Martin's got as much hope of being Taoiseach as Gormley or Adams do.

Why stop at 5-way? Surely that the odds are Gormley will win 0/1 seats, whereas the ULA - excluded - are quite likely to win more than that.

[Јas]

Fine Gael have announced that Enda Kenny will only debate on the following terms:
One 5-way debate on RTÉ on Monday the 15th.
One 3-way debate to be on shared transmission on the Tuesday the 22nd.

[Insula Dei]

Fine Gael have announced that Enda Kenny will only debate on the following terms:
One 5-way debate on RTÉ on Monday the 15th.
One 3-way debate to be on shared transmission on the Tuesday the 22nd.

Isn't that just basically asking to have the debates go on without you and shooting yourself in the foot?

[minionofmidas]

Or just to cancel the debates full stop.

[YL]

I don't really understand the concern about running too many candidates. This isn't FPTP, vote splitting doesn't really exist. Perhaps the concern is wasting resources on multiple candidates targeting the same voters when a single candidate could focus on swing voters.

There have been examples where running too many candidates has gone wrong.  See the SDLP in West Tyrone in the 2007 Northern Ireland Assembly election: they had three candidates who got just over a quota between them, but transfers leaked away and they failed to get a seat.  Of course it's possible that if they'd only had one candidate they'd have got significantly fewer first preferences and so lost anyway, but I doubt it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another poll: FG 35, Labour 22, FF 17, SF 13, Greenies 2%, I/O 11%

Red C/Sunday Business Post

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Electorate is very votatile this time around so I don´t really that much stock in the current polls. Also, it is obvious that independents will play a big role this year, perhaps more so than in 2002.

Or perhaps I´m saying this because I still can´t comprehend the notion of Enda Kenny being taoiseach.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or perhaps I´m saying this because I still can´t comprehend the notion of Enda Kenny being taoiseach.

Which would be entirely understandable as it's not a nice thought.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Or perhaps I´m saying this because I still can´t comprehend the notion of Enda Kenny being taoiseach.

Which would be entirely understandable as it's not a nice thought.

Perhaps it´s a bit of urban snobbery on my part... because I can´t understand the appeal of that man with that voice. He never ceases to come across like a dithering slightly lazy small town lawyer preparing for his first big traffic violation case in the big smoke of Dublin and therefore preparing himself for his new role as the big star in an episode of Law and Order: Ballydehob edition.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why has Labour been sliding in the polls?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why has Labour been sliding in the polls?

They haven´t been. Their earlier position was inflated due in large part to Labour becoming "Generic Opposition Party" for a time last year. A role which has been somewhat eaten into by Sinn Fein and the growing realization of many voters than they in fact have to vote for someone and not just against the government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember, Labour only polled 10% back in 2007.