Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[patrick1]

So Fine Gael is leading the polls and Epic Fail could remain the second party ? Ireland really depresses me...

I wouldn't presume that yet. FF just polled 10% Dublin wide Evening Herald poll.  I think the # of FF seats will ultimately depend on how well local candidates can separate themselves from the national party. FG will win though- I think it is just a matter of if they can reach single party majority- I don't see that happening.

Herald polled 1000 Dublin wide.
LAB 31, FG 29, IND 16, SF 11, FF 10, GRN 3

ULA and SF strength probably a bit understated since they are not running in all constituencies.  

[Oakvale]

So Fine Gael is leading the polls and Epic Fail could remain the second party ? Ireland really depresses me...

That's pretty unlikely to happen.

[Јas]

Another poll out today by Millward Brown Lansdowne for theIrish Independent.

	16 Feb	13 Feb	6 Feb	3 Feb	2 Feb	2007
	MBL	RedC	RedC	I-MRBI	MBL	Election
Fine Gael	38	38	35	33	30	27
Labour	23	20	22	24	24	10
Fianna Fáil	12	15	17	15	16	42
Sinn Féin	10	10	13	12	13	7
Green	1	3	2	1	1	5
Ind/Other	16	14	11	15	15	9

New record low for FF
Corroborates the record high FG return from Sunday
Labour’s fall arrested (?)
SF seem to be returning back to the high end of a ‘normal’ polling result for them


Satisfaction Ratings
42 Martin
41 Gilmore
30 Kenny
26 Adams
13 Gormley

[Јas]

Adrian Kavanagh, who attempts to apply a sort of uniform national swing to all the polls that come out, figures that a result á la the MBL poll could put FG on 78 seats - 5 short of a potential majority.

[Oakvale]

I'm of the opinion that the best thing for the country in the long term is for either Fine Gael or Labour to go into government with a (near or otherwise) majority, with the second party becoming the opposition, so I'm perversely happy to see Fine Gael nearing majority levels of support, in purely political terms.

Because that basically consigns Fianna Fáil to the ash heap of history - a FG/Lab coalition allows FF to rebuild as the deault opposition party. People have short memories, and the pessimist in me thinks Fianna Fáil would be back in government far sooner than anyone would think once the next administration gets down to the fiscal dirty work that's necessary.

But with (as the most likely of these hypotheticals) Fine Gael + Independents in government versus a sizeable Labour, the situation's a win for both parties.

There's the long sought left/right divide, Fianna Fáil are an irrelevancy, and Fine Gael take their place as the centre-right party. As an admitted Labour hack, I also wouldn't be too distraught to see the next election been fought between Taoiseach Kenny and leader of the opposition Gilmore. [1]

That's just me being politically cynical, but I do think such a result would effectively end Fianna Fáil as a major player in Irish politics. They are not a party built for being in third place.

[1] I'd imagine there'd be some calls for Gilmore to go if he ended up as leader of the opposition instead of being in government, but I think that'd be silly considering Labour are likely to have their best performance ever.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     In light of the latest poll, any chance that Sinn Féin will get more votes than Fianna Fáil?

[Oakvale]

I don't know if you can watch from outside Ireland, but someone here might find the TG4 debate amusing. There are subtitles.

Streaming.

[ilikeverin]

I don't know if you can watch from outside Ireland, but someone here might find the TG4 debate amusing. There are subtitles.

Streaming.

Oh!  Oh!  You can!  Oh!  I'm not at a spot where I can actually listen right now, but I really hope I get to.

[Oakvale]

Kenny being schooled on the core subjects of the Leaving Cert.



The debate is actually the best one yet.

[ilikeverin]

Kenny being schooled on the core subjects of the Leaving Cert.



The debate is actually the best one yet.

It certainly seems quite lively!

[Јas]

     In light of the latest poll, any chance that Sinn Féin will get more votes than Fianna Fáil?

Unlikely, but not impossible.

[Silent Hunter]

BBC Parliament are showing the RTE debate from 6.00pm tonight.

[Јas]

Article in The Economist looking at how the Irish economic crash has affected issues such as immigration, attitudes to the EU, politicking etc.

[rob in cal]

Is there a certain percentage target where Fine Gael is likely to win a majority of seats?  I'll be interested to see how a wide spread between the first and second placed parties effects the proportionality of the Irish STV system. 

[Oakvale]

Is there a certain percentage target where Fine Gael is likely to win a majority of seats?  I'll be interested to see how a wide spread between the first and second placed parties effects the proportionality of the Irish STV system. 

Most people place it in the high 30s. Around 38% could do it.

[minionofmidas]

The worse the opposition is fractured, the lower it should go.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite a few three seaters now, aren't there...

[Јas]

Is there a certain percentage target where Fine Gael is likely to win a majority of seats?  I'll be interested to see how a wide spread between the first and second placed parties effects the proportionality of the Irish STV system. 

There's no simple answer to that, quite a few variables come into play:
1. As Lewis says, it depends on just how fractured the opposition is. Currently with FF so low, SF relatively high, Labour doing well (but not too well) and indications of lots of votes for others - it looks quite good for FG.

2. It depends on how inclined people are to transfer to FG from the other parties. Polling indicates that in the current instance Labour voters are likely to transfer quite well to FG - which will be useful to them.

3. It also depends on how good Fine Gael are at vote management - i.e. how well they split first preference votes between their candidates, and how well FG voters continue to give their next preferences to other FG candidates. This we'll not know until the results start coming in.

Getting an overall majority with anything less than 40 would be difficult and need the above to all go FG's way, as well as a bit of luck.

For quite a range, FPV total alone isn’t itself enough information to tell whether a majority is in reach. See below FF’s FPV result in recent elections, and how far short of a majority they fell:

2007	41.6%	5
2002	41.5%	2
1997	39.3%	6
1992	39.1%	15
1989	44.2%	6
1987	44.2%	2

[Јas]

Outgoing FF TD for Cork East, Ned O'Keefe looks like he's giving great effort to winning the most outrageous statement of the day competition.

The other day, his son Kevin (running to retain his father's seat) disowned his father's remarks that an army coup was now a "real possibility".

Yesterday, O'Keefe claimed that the outgoing Government had "too many intellectuals" - and expressed unease over the idea that nobody in the cabinet "ever bought a bale of hay".

Couldn't make it up.

- journal.ie

[Silent Hunter]

BBC Parliament are showing the RTE debate from 6.00pm tonight.

Actually it was 7.00pm; it might be on iPlayer.

My take on the debate.

Comments are welcome, especially from those who have more experience of Ireland than one holiday.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Predict the election: http://fullhouse.whitebox.ie/.

[Oakvale]

Going into hibernation until Election Day based on the latest Red C poll. Enda Kenny with an overall majority? *shudders*

[minionofmidas]

Election day 2016?

[Oakvale]

Election day 2016?

I'll awake next Friday to spend the night wandering the streets drinking rum and shouting at things.

[minionofmidas]

Election day 2016?

I'll awake next Friday to spend the night wandering the streets drinking rum and shouting at things.

Rum instead of Whiskey to protest against the Irish people?