Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Хahar 🤔]

Hopefully Gilmore stays in opposition after the election. With these numbers it looks like Enda Kenny might not give him a choice.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Election day 2016?

I'll awake next Friday to spend the night wandering the streets drinking rum and shouting at things.

If I weren´t living in Madrid, I´ll join you. Hell, I´ll join you in spirit.

[Јas]

So then, the 3 pollsters all published either yesterday or today.
Figures below, with their most recent comparators and the last election result.

	21 Feb	20 Feb	20 Feb	16 Feb	13 Feb	3 Feb	2007
	I-MRBI	MBL	RedC	MBL	RedC	I-MRBI	Election
Fine Gael	37	37	39	38	38	33	27
Labour	19	20	17	23	20	24	10
Fianna Fáil	16	16	16	12	15	15	42
Sinn Féin	12	12	12	10	10	12	7
Green	2	1	2	1	3	1	5
Ind/Other	18	19	14	16	14	15	9

So 4 days out, it appears that there is a level of consistency amongst the pollsters – absolute in the case of FF and SF.

A FG overall majority, forming the first single party majority government in Ireland since 1977, is on the table. I don’t think they’d make it on these numbers, but there are those who do, and with some days still to go and momentum in their direction – it’s a real possibility.

Labour’s despair must increase with each new poll indicating that the ground continues to soften underfoot. Since May last year, they’ve been largely easily clearing the 20% marker - peaking at 35% in September. Since then, support has been gradually dissipating. At the start of the campaign the notion of a Labour Taoiseach was, possibly for the first time ever, not to be immediately dismissed out of hand. How much is each day costing them in votes? Find out Saturday.

Fianna Fáil has stemmed the tide, but 16% remains a disaster for the party. They’re catching Labour, but almost solely by dint of Labour falling. I doubt they can still snatch second place at this point.

Sinn Féin’s 12% should give them a very respectable election result – if it holds true. (They have tended to overpoll in the past.)

[Nichlemn]

Have any current Western governments been the major party in Government longer than FF? In fact, are there are any other pre-2000 governments left?

[minionofmidas]

Well Bremen has been under SPD rule since 1945, Baden Württemberg under CDU rule since 1951 and Bavaria under CSU rule since 1957...

[freek]

Luxembourg? The CSV is in government since 1945, with the exception of 1974-1979.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Right has held the Presidency in France since 1995, of course.

[Јas]

Imperfect, but then they all are...
votomatic.ie fills the void of the who should you vote for internet quizzy thingimajig.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Right has held the Presidency in France since 1995, of course.

To be fair, they are actually in government only since 2002.

[ilikeverin]

Imperfect, but then they all are...
votomatic.ie fills the void of the who should you vote for internet quizzy thingimajig.

"You are hard to please, but you are closest to the Labour Party."

1) Labour (+3)
2) FF (+2)
3) Greens (0)
4) SF (-6)
5) FG (-7)

[minionofmidas]

There were really too many questions I didn't know sh!t about and had to leave at no opinion, but it says I'm sporting the right avatar.

SF +12
Labour +10
Green -1
FG -6
FF -8

And I got to echo patrick's comment at the top of the comment box "where was the question on how to achieve a United Ireland?"

[Hash]

Labour +14
FG +8
Green +6
SF +5
FF -10

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Well Bremen has been under SPD rule since 1945, Baden Württemberg under CDU rule since 1951 and Bavaria under CSU rule since 1957...

If we're counting provincial/state level a few Swedish provinces has had Social Democrats in power since 1921

[Јas]

Time to try and get some election prediction in – not sure I'll have time to get through everything, but we'll see how I get on...

First up the 3 Ulster constituencies.

Cavan-Monaghan

Given that this is my native constituency, I’ll go that bit further here in my prediction than elsewhere, and make what will no doubt be a ridiculous complete first preference guestimation…

%   
21 Ó Caoláin   
15 Humphries   
13 O’Reilly      
11 Smith   
  9 Reilly   
  7 McVitty      
  7 Conlon, M   
  6 Conlon, S   
  4 McGuirk
  3 Hogan   
  2 Treanor   
  1 Lonergan
  1 Forde   
  0 Duffy   

We can go back and lol at that on Saturday.

So by this I’d say Ó Caoláin, Humphries, O’Reilly and Smith to get elected – with Reilly against McVittie for the last seat. I imagine SF will suffer much less transfer leakage than FG, so I’ll plump for Reilly.

Prediction: 2 FG, 2 SF, 1 FF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)


Donegal North-East

Pádraig MacLochlainn of SF to top the poll and secure SF’s first seat in DSE since the early years of the state. Joe McHugh of FG should retain his seat easily enough – but I can’t see there being much chance of him dragging his running-mate terribly close to the line.

Final seat should be FF’s – they’re just running local Cllr, Charlie McConalogue.
I’d expect reasonable numbers for Labour Cllr Jimmy Harte, independent Betty Holmes and New Vision candidate, MacDara Blaney (of the Blaney clan that has held a seat here for decades). If there is sufficiently strong anti-FF transferring then maybe McConalogue can be beaten, I presume Harte would be best placed to do so, but he’d be up against it.

Prediction: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF (SF GAIN from FF)


Donegal South West

Should be fairly straightforward  for Doherty (SF) and McGinley (FG).
The Tánaiste, Mary Coughlan (FF) should take the last. Again, a proviso being that there could be sufficient votes out there to keep Coughlan out, but it would require strong transferring among the non-FF candidates. I doubt that level of cohesion will be there, but if it is I’d imagine Thomas Pringle is best placed to test Coughlan.

Prediction: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF (SF GAIN from FF)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well Bremen has been under SPD rule since 1945, Baden Württemberg under CDU rule since 1951 and Bavaria under CSU rule since 1957...

If we're counting provincial/state level a few Swedish provinces has had Social Democrats in power since 1921

If we're counting local government () then the old Durham County Council was Labour from the early 1920s until it was abolished in 1974 and its main successor authorities (the new Durham County Council (now a unitary authority) and large parts (but in no case the largest town) of Sunderland, Gateshead and South Tyneside metropolitan boroughs) have always been run by Labour. I think Buckinghamshire County Council (boundaries a bit more stable) has been Tory ever since it was created at the end of the 19th century, but I'm not entirely sure.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, what have I done? While German states are a few dozen levels above the units now being discussed in terms of power and constitutional standing, they didn't really belong here and I knew it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, what have I done? While German states are a few dozen levels above the units now being discussed in terms of power and constitutional standing, they didn't really belong here and I knew it.

Each post is a few steps down or so. I think the next step is for someone to point out that the X party has had a majority on some town council somewhere since 1868 or whenever.

[Insula Dei]

Labour: 7
Greens: 3
SF: 1
FF: -1
FG: -10

So I guess I'm more anti-Fine Gael than anything else.

[Јas]

On to Connacht…

Galway E

FG pitching for 3 out of 4 here and should get them in what is one of their strongest constituencies. They’re probably looking at drawing in around half the total first preference votes here. Connaughton and McHugh should be the leading FG candidates – maybe Cannon for the 3rd.

FF are defending 2 here – but by running 2, I think they might just be putting their shot at holding one at risk. Michael Kitt though should hold on.

Independent Seán Canney and Labour’s Colm Keaveney  should put up respectable numbers – the stronger of the two should be in the hunt for the last seat.

Prediction: 3 FG, 1 FF (FG GAIN from FF)


Galway W

Hard to call. Certainly 1 FG seat. After that any number of combinations seem plausible.

I imagine despite running 3 candidates, Eamon Ó Cuív will take a FF seat. There should be 2 FG seats (probably Walsh and Healy-Eames). Holding the Labour seat will probably be doable – despite that much of this was a personal vote disappearing with the retiring Michael D Higgins. Independents Noel Grealish (incumbent, ex-PD) and Catherine Connolly (formerly of Labour) are also contenders.

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 i [Grealish] (FG GAIN from FF)


Mayo

Home of Enda Kenny – their strongest constituency in 2007. This time FG will be pushing for 4 out of 5. Exactly the same line-up of candidates as last time for them, moving from 3 to 4 is a real possibility.

FF closed the Dáil with the other 2 seats – realistically they can only hope to hold 1. And should, but running a second candidate is a danger.

Also in the running for a seat should be for Labour, former Independent TD, Jerry Cowley; independent Cllr Michael Kilcoyne; and SF’s Cllr Rose Conway-Walsh.

With a better Sinn Féin candidate (and were they running 1 rather than 2), I’d have plumped for them to take a seat – otherwise I think Kilcoyne is the best placed challenger.

Prediction: 4 FG, 1 FF (FG GAIN from Independent)


Roscommon-Leitrim S

The 2 FG incumbents should be returned easily enough. The remaining seat should be between FF, SF, Labour’s John Kelly, and independent, Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan. As I’d probably (happily) support Flanagan – I’m taking that as a reasonable guide that he couldn’t possibly actually get elected.

 I’m guessing Connaghton of FF will be close, despite having a running mate. If anti-FF sentiment on transfers is strong enough, FF should get shut out. I'm guessing Labour are best placed to make that challenge (but this could be hilariously wrong - I doubt anyone else will be calling a Lab gain here).

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 Lab (Lab GAIN from FF)


Sligo-Leitrim N

FG should definitely be looking at two here and indeed I’d expect them to both top and come second in the poll.

FF defending 2, will be desperately seeking to hold 1 – but I imagine the wind’s against them. SF seem best placed to pick up here. Labour might have been, but the inclusion of former Labour member Declan Bree, should split that vote and give SF’s Colreavy a cushion.

Prediction: 2 FG, 1 SF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Sinn Fein: +23
Labour: +12
Green: +3
Fianna Fail: -13
Fine Gael: -17

How embarrassing to be lumped in with the Sinn Fein loonies.

[afleitch]

Fine Gael: +6
Fianna Fail: +1
Labour: 0
Green: -3
Sinn Fein: -12

[Hans-im-Glück]

My result:

Labour  +13
SF  +8
Green  +8
FF  -2
FG  -6

[Oakvale]

My gut prediction for my own constituency, Dublin Central, before Jas gets to it -

2 Labour

Joe Costello will probably top the poll, and my instinct is that Aine Clancy will get in, too, just about.

1 Fine Gael

Paschal Donohoe will almost certainly win - he's ran a couple of times now, and did reasonably well in the by-election to replace Tony Gregory.

1 Independent *

It's hard to predict the final seat - there's no way of telling if Gregory's vote will hold up to re-elect O' Sullivan, for example. Normally you'd expect Sinn Féin to win this one, but Mary Lou McDonald isn't exactly a stellar candidate. If I had to pick I'd gamble on O' Sullivan keeping her seat and McDonald, rather than Clancy, losing out accordingly. You should probably bear in mind that I'm biased since I really, really can't stand Mary Lou McDonald.

Bertie's human surplus, Cyprian Brady (Fianna Fáil) is one of the deadest incumbents imaginable. His inter-party rival, Mary Fitzpatrick, hasn't got a chance either, although her prospects are better than Brady's.

The usual gaggle of independents are also running. Christy Burke, recently of Sinn Féin, will probably do respectably well.

* Orange is apparently the colour of independent candidates.

[Хahar 🤔]

Please go on, Jas; these are excellent.

Sinn Féin 15
Labour 11
Greens -2
Fine Gael -8
Fianna Fáil -12

That seems about right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please go on, Jas; these are excellent.

^^^