Irish general election: 25 February 2011
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  Irish general election: 25 February 2011
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Author Topic: Irish general election: 25 February 2011  (Read 81997 times)
Хahar 🤔
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« on: November 22, 2010, 10:27:52 PM »
« edited: February 01, 2011, 04:51:21 PM by Χahar »

An election now is certain to happen: the only question is when. The government has lost its majority, and it may have lost supply as well, in which case it will be unable to go out on its own terms.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2010, 01:05:47 PM »

Ireland 2007
Fianna Fail 858,565 votes (41.56%) winning 77 seats
Fine Gael 564,428 votes (27.32%) winning 51 seats
Labour 209,175 votes (10.13%) winning 20 seats
Sinn Fein 143,410 votes (6.94%) winning 4 seats
Independents 118,951 votes (5.76%) winning 5 seats
Greens 96,936 votes (4.69%) winning 6 seats
Progressive Democrats 56,396 votes (2.73%) winning 2 seats
Socialist Party 13,218 votes (0.64%) winning 0 seats
Worker's Party 3,026 votes (0.15%) winning 0 seats
Other Parties 1,705 votes (0.08%) winning 0 seats

Since the election the Progressive Democrats dissolved (with both TD's now sitting as Independents)
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2010, 01:28:56 PM »

Suffice to say this will like no other election in the history of the Republic. Not even 1932. Regardless of what happens between now and election day.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2010, 04:11:31 PM »

Enlighten the ignorant on this issue (and this might be a really stupid question with an obvious answer but I'll ask it anyway): is Fianna Fáil expected to take a real pounding?
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2010, 04:17:15 PM »

Enlighten the ignorant on this issue (and this might be a really stupid question with an obvious answer but I'll ask it anyway): is Fianna Fáil expected to take a real pounding?

The worst pounding it's ever taken.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2010, 04:28:25 PM »

Put it like this... at the last election, Fianna Fail polled 41.6% of the vote. The most recent opinion poll shows them on 17%. Since 1932 the lowest they have ever polled in a general election was 39.1% in 1992; and Ireland has had a remarkably stable party system (and has kept the same basic electoral system) meaning that such comparisons have more value than most places.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2010, 04:31:22 PM »

So the closest US equivalent would be something like 1894, or even the collapse of the Whigs?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2010, 04:32:24 PM »

Wow. And it looks like Fine Gael has never been the top vote getter. This should be interesting.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2010, 04:51:31 PM »

Fun fact: The last time Fianna Fáil did not form government after an election was November 1982.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2010, 04:54:36 PM »

Ideologically speaking, someone like myself would be most similar to Fine Gael, right? I wouldn't be with Labor and I read that Gael is generally considered to be to the right though it seems to be a little more complex than that.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2010, 04:59:03 PM »

Ideologically speaking, someone like myself would be most similar to Fine Gael, right? I wouldn't be with Labor and I read that Gael is generally considered to be to the right though it seems to be a little more complex than that.

It's strange. Fianna Fáil have no ideology, veering from hard-right Thatcherism to populist psuedo-socialism (Bertie Ahern being the last real socialist in Irish politics, of course).

Fine Gael have traditionally not been all that different, but their Dublin TDs (Leo Varadkar et al) tend to be more right-wing in a European liberal kind of way. The glimmers of an actual ideology are there, you just have to look a bit.

So yeah, probably Fine Gael. maybe the PDs when they were around.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2010, 05:01:21 PM »

So Fianna Fail's ideology (or lack of one) could be considered similar to that of the GOP c. 1920-1980?
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2010, 05:04:54 PM »

So Fianna Fail's ideology (or lack of one) could be considered similar to that of the GOP c. 1920-1980?

Irish politics is fairly similar to American politics in the century following the Civil War, in that both parties are pretty much the same and the one you vote for depends on which side your ancestors were on in the Civil War.
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Hash
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« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2010, 05:05:20 PM »

I'll always find it funny to read about a party which includes my name in its own name.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2010, 05:06:33 PM »


It's strange. Fianna Fáil have no ideology

...

Fine Gael have traditionally not been all that different

Yeah, that's what I was gathering.

I'll always find it funny to read about a party which includes my name in its own name.

Fail? Yeah, that's awesome.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #15 on: November 23, 2010, 05:19:49 PM »

So Fianna Fail's ideology (or lack of one) could be considered similar to that of the GOP c. 1920-1980?

Irish politics is fairly similar to American politics in the century following the Civil War, in that both parties are pretty much the same and the one you vote for depends on which side your ancestors were on in the Civil War.

I think that's a bit of an oversimplification (of post-Civil War politics).  The Republicans were the party of protectionism, nativism, prohibition, "progressive" racial policies, and isolationism, while the Democrats favored free trade, free immigration, legal liquor, states' rights, and more internationalist policies.  Considering that New York and Massachusetts were among the more important swing states, I'd say that people really only voted along "Civil War" lines in the South (though people did generally vote on ethnic lines).
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2010, 07:36:47 PM »

So would either of Fine Gael or Labour actually be able to win enough seats to get their own majority, or are we going to see some sort of coalition being formed afet the election? In that case which parties are most likly to team up with each other? (I'm guessing neither Labour nor Gael would go near Fianna Fail)
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #17 on: November 23, 2010, 07:40:05 PM »

There will almost certainly be a coalition between Labour and Fine Gael after the election, no matter who comes out on top. Labour has been a part of every Fine Gael government.
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DL
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« Reply #18 on: November 23, 2010, 11:08:17 PM »

One thing has always puzzled me about Irish politics. I'm told that FF and FG are essentially identical ideologically in that they both have no real ideology - though I'm told that FG tends to be a more socially liberal on issues like divorce and gay rights while FF tends to be "catholic" and socially conservative - but I'm told even that is open to debate.

All that being said - why is it that the Labour Party (which does have an ideology is definitely left of centre social democratic) ALWAYS allies itself with Fine Gael and they are considered almost permanent coalition partners - while Labour and FF never seem to be able to work together and I believe that the one time they tried - it quickly fell apart.

Can someone Irish explain why it is that if FF and FG are ideologically identical - the Labour Party will only work with FG and never with FF?  In fact FF has recently preferred to form alliances with the very rightwing Progressive Democrats.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2010, 02:21:58 AM »

For a long time Fianna Fáil didn't form coalitions at all. Fine Gael, on the other hand, has always been the second-largest party in the Dáil, and as a result has always had to form coalitions to take power. Given that Labour has always been clearly the third-largest party in Ireland, they are Fine Gael's traditional coalition partners. Moreover, the Progressive Democrats were originally Fianna Fáil dissidents.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #20 on: November 24, 2010, 09:25:18 AM »

From what I've read Fine Gael seem to be a rather good party. I'd probably have voted for them if I was Irish. Still the lack of an actual ideology in either of the big parties is quite disappionting. Seems like it'd make Irish politics quite boring.

Who're you supporting Jas?
 

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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #21 on: November 24, 2010, 12:24:01 PM »

One thing has always puzzled me about Irish politics. I'm told that FF and FG are essentially identical ideologically in that they both have no real ideology - though I'm told that FG tends to be a more socially liberal on issues like divorce and gay rights while FF tends to be "catholic" and socially conservative - but I'm told even that is open to debate.

All that being said - why is it that the Labour Party (which does have an ideology is definitely left of centre social democratic) ALWAYS allies itself with Fine Gael and they are considered almost permanent coalition partners - while Labour and FF never seem to be able to work together and I believe that the one time they tried - it quickly fell apart.

Can someone Irish explain why it is that if FF and FG are ideologically identical - the Labour Party will only work with FG and never with FF?  In fact FF has recently preferred to form alliances with the very rightwing Progressive Democrats.

The PDs were never as right-wing as commonly stated (it was due to them that the minimum wage was introduced after all). Which isn´t to say there weren´t a right-wing party...

Listen to thing to understand about Irish politics is this, the two civil war parties are really just vast patronage and influence machines to the supporters and the families of their supporters. That´s why they exist and why in part Ireland´s political system is so dysfunctional. As FG needed power to fulfill its patronage role to its fullest it has relied on Labour (somewhat ironic as FG were originally the most conservative of the two parties and even had a brief flirtation with quasi-fascism in the 30s). Labour realized therefore that their influence is much higher in FG led government. Furthermore there has always been a voting consistency in Ireland which is non-party but anti-FF. Betraying this vote was a major reason why Labour collapsed so badly in 1997.
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Јas
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« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2010, 07:09:40 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2010, 07:23:00 AM by Јas »

A number of leftist groups are coming together for the upcoming election under the United Left Alliance banner.

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They comprise, primarily, the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit Alliance (PBP), along with some leftist independents with reasonable local bases of support (Seamus Healy in Tipperary South; Declan Bree in Sligo).

They should take a handful of seats - best prospects are likely Dublin W & Dublin N for the Socialists; Dún Laoighaire and Dublin SC for PBP; and, Seamus Healy in Tipperary S. After that, who knows...
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #23 on: November 26, 2010, 10:05:31 PM »

http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/the-first-leaflet-from-the-united-left-alliance-ula/

Presumably Higgins will win. I'd expect Barrett to get a seat, except that Dún Laoghaire is losing a seat, which will make it considerably more difficult. It'll be interesting to see how well the ULA does.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2010, 10:21:32 PM »

For a long time Fianna Fáil didn't form coalitions at all. Fine Gael, on the other hand, has always been the second-largest party in the Dáil, and as a result has always had to form coalitions to take power. Given that Labour has always been clearly the third-largest party in Ireland, they are Fine Gael's traditional coalition partners. Moreover, the Progressive Democrats were originally Fianna Fáil dissidents.

     Why did FF not form coalitions? For any sort of non-ideological, dare I say "American-esque", party, holding power by any means necessary would seem like a logical modus operandi. Lacking ideological convictions & being unwilling to cooperate with other parties seems like a recipe for irrelevancy.
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