Irish general election: 25 February 2011
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  Irish general election: 25 February 2011
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Author Topic: Irish general election: 25 February 2011  (Read 81998 times)
Kevinstat
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« Reply #25 on: November 26, 2010, 11:40:14 PM »

For a long time Fianna Fáil didn't form coalitions at all. Fine Gael, on the other hand, has always been the second-largest party in the Dáil, and as a result has always had to form coalitions to take power. Given that Labour has always been clearly the third-largest party in Ireland, they are Fine Gael's traditional coalition partners. Moreover, the Progressive Democrats were originally Fianna Fáil dissidents.

     Why did FF not form coalitions? For any sort of non-ideological, dare I say "American-esque", party, holding power by any means necessary would seem like a logical modus operandi. Lacking ideological convictions & being unwilling to cooperate with other parties seems like a recipe for irrelevancy.

Maybe they feared that forming a temporary coalition to stay in power would change the political dymamic in a way that would prevent them from ever governing on their own (as they had often been able to do, albiet sometimes with a minority of seats in the Dáil and relying on the support of Independents (I'm not sure if any of those were given government positions like now-Independent Mary Harney currently has) and even, at least once, a party outside of government (Fine Gael with its Tallaght Strategy from 1987 to... their entering government and John Bruton becoming Taoiseach in 1994?)).  The Labor Party in Norway long avoided coalitions iirc.  They're leading a coalition government now but I doubt they'll ever govern on their own again (apart from a period of time for no more than a year I'd say after other parties hypothetically leave a Labor-led governrment but for whatever reason there isn't majority support in the main legislative body for either another government (if that's even possible there without an election) or forcing a new election).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #26 on: November 27, 2010, 12:09:55 PM »


It's strange. Fianna Fáil have no ideology

...

Fine Gael have traditionally not been all that different

Yeah, that's what I was gathering.

I'll always find it funny to read about a party which includes my name in its own name.

Fail? Yeah, that's awesome.
His surname is almost "Hermione", so I suppose he meant "fine".
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2010, 12:35:48 PM »

A number of leftist groups are coming together for the upcoming election under the United Left Alliance banner.

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They comprise, primarily, the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit Alliance (PBP), along with some leftist independents with reasonable local bases of support (Seamus Healy in Tipperary South; Declan Bree in Sligo).

They should take a handful of seats - best prospects are likely Dublin W & Dublin N for the Socialists; Dún Laoighaire and Dublin SC for PBP; and, Seamus Healy in Tipperary S. After that, who knows...

Anything comperable going on in the right?  Not just Veritas and Cóir, but is there any "neo-PD" movement, fiscally conservative but anti-bailouts and anti-recent government action on the economy and thus at least somewhat anti-ex PD Mary Harney?  It seems like there could be a real opening for such a party or alliance, if only because Edna Kenney, who seems to take roughly that place on the spectrum, is so incompetant.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #28 on: November 27, 2010, 01:59:52 PM »


It's strange. Fianna Fáil have no ideology

...

Fine Gael have traditionally not been all that different

Yeah, that's what I was gathering.

I'll always find it funny to read about a party which includes my name in its own name.

Fail? Yeah, that's awesome.
His surname is almost "Hermione", so I suppose he meant "fine".

Just for the record, his first name is "Gael" and that's the party he meant. I was just being a smartass.  Tongue

Though maybe you knew that judging by the link you added in your post.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #29 on: November 28, 2010, 06:35:33 AM »

Quite, quite.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2010, 01:04:02 PM »

The number of incumbents retiring has been steadily increasing recently (list of declared here) - but topping the list of surprisies is today's news that Minister for Justice, Dermot Ahern (FF-Louth) is retiring. Senior cabinet Minister, long thought to have serious notions of becoming FF leader at some point, the decision comes as a significant surprise.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #31 on: December 03, 2010, 10:49:26 PM »

It's interesting that most of the PD counsellors survived the 2009 locals running as independents - but there is no sign of any effort at revival. Noel Grealish will presumable run again, and has a not unreasonable chance of re-election but that's about it from the ex-PD perspective.

Is Mary Harney likely to run again?  If so, is she doomed to defeat, having all of the hardships of being in an unpopulat Government without the base of a major party like Fianna Fáil?  (In that respect, she's kind of like a Green Party TD.)
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: December 04, 2010, 07:18:36 AM »

It's interesting that most of the PD counsellors survived the 2009 locals running as independents - but there is no sign of any effort at revival. Noel Grealish will presumable run again, and has a not unreasonable chance of re-election but that's about it from the ex-PD perspective.

Is Mary Harney likely to run again?  If so, is she doomed to defeat, having all of the hardships of being in an unpopulat Government without the base of a major party like Fianna Fáil?  (In that respect, she's kind of like a Green Party TD.)

It has been widely assumed that Harney would be retiring for years now. But as it happens, there's a small story in today's Irish Times (see bottom of page) indicating that that's not a certainty and that indeed there are rumours she might seek to run for FF (!).

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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: December 15, 2010, 07:47:47 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2010, 07:49:22 PM by Јas »

I figure new polling should probably go here now, so...

Traditionally the most accurate pollster, MRBI, have come up with their latest poll to be published in tomorrow's Irish Times. The poll numbers, the last RedC poll, the last comparable MRBI poll and the 2007 Election numbers are tabulated below.

16 Dec   3 Dec   26 Sep   2007
I-MRBIRedCI-MRBIElection
Fine Gael30322427
Labour25243310
Fianna Fáil  17132442
Sinn Féin151687
Green2325
Ind/Other111189

It may be noted that on the raw numbers, 25% were undecided.

This poll sees substantial swings. It's the first time MRBI have FG back ahead of Labour since January. The poll suggests that there has been a very substantial swing against Labour in recent months.

It also returns FF to their joint lowest ever MRBI polling result - 17% (down 7 on September's poll, which itself was up 7 on June).

The poll seems to confirm the RedC indicated Sinn Féin surge. It seems to me that this represents the third significant shift away from FF in the last three years. (The first wave left for FG in 2008/09. The second left for Labour in 2009/10.)


Finally, the leaders' and government satisfaction ratings…

Satisfaction Ratings
Gilmore44(-5)
Adams28(-1)
Kenny23(-2)
Cowen14(-5)
Gormley13(-5)
Government  8(-5)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #34 on: December 15, 2010, 08:35:38 PM »

Bah. Still, even 25% would be more than double the last election and significantly higher than even 1992. In theory, anyway.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #35 on: December 15, 2010, 10:15:57 PM »

My dream is see establishment parties FF+G and FG+LP low than 50%, including independents. Radical problems need radical solutions!
GO SINN FEIN! GO ULA!
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Oakvale
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« Reply #36 on: December 16, 2010, 11:02:09 AM »
« Edited: December 16, 2010, 11:08:01 AM by Governor Oakvale »

As something of a Labour hack I'm somewhat disappointed in the poll, but I'm almost adopting that old FF line of "the only poll that matters...".

I'm actually thinking the swing is from Labour to Fine Gael. Could be helped by the fact that Noonan performed very well in the last couple of weeks.

Anyway, hopefully it's just a blip... Wink

EDIT: Also, the Independent's headline is going to be something like "FIANNA FAIL SURGE AHEAD OF SINN FÉIN". Grin
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DL
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« Reply #37 on: December 16, 2010, 03:30:28 PM »

Too bad they don't have first past the post in Ireland - if they did I suspect FF would get wiped off the map and end up with zero seats.
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Jens
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« Reply #38 on: December 16, 2010, 04:28:17 PM »

A couple of questions:

First: Is it possible to estimate the distribution of TD's? I know that SF will not get 15 % of the TD's, but I wonder what percentage FF will get, given their presence all over the country

Second: Any chance the Greens will survive. It's any of their politicians popular enougth to carry a mandate?
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #39 on: December 16, 2010, 04:33:57 PM »

As a postscript - the leader's debate will help Labour, assuming Kenny and Cowen are still around. Wink

Also, I can't help but thinking that the muzzle FG have put on Kenny seems to be paying off... maybe Michael Noonan could be making a comeback some time soon.

[/Labour hack]
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #40 on: December 16, 2010, 05:56:43 PM »

First: Is it possible to estimate the distribution of TD's? I know that SF will not get 15 % of the TD's, but I wonder what percentage FF will get, given their presence all over the country

One or two blogs have now taken to making seat projections based on each new poll. I'd advise taking plenty of salt with you on considering such projections, obviously, but they provide not completely unreasonable efforts at guessing the sorts of net results that might emerge.


Second: Any chance the Greens will survive. It's any of their politicians popular enougth to carry a mandate?

Yeah, there's a chance. Trevor Sargent (Dublin N) is presumably best placed to be returned, but it's an uphill battle.

Whether or not the party will survive if they don't get anyone elected? I suspect it will, in some form or other, keep going - but who knows.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #41 on: December 16, 2010, 07:07:04 PM »

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate. If TV3 do one, though, I'd imagine Adams would be invited, providing their polling holds.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #42 on: December 17, 2010, 05:42:39 AM »

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate.
Simple - just have a debate between the two front runners only. Grin
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #43 on: December 17, 2010, 11:17:09 AM »

The Minister for Transport, Noel Dempsey (FF-Meath W) has become the second Cabinet Minister to decide not to contest the upcoming election. No particular reason stated - FF's imminant decimation is thus the reason presumptive.

High profile backbencher, Beverley Flynn (FF-Mayo), thrice expelled from the party, also announced yesterday she wouldn't be running.

Wiki seems to have an up to date list of incumbent retirement announcements.
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Jens
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« Reply #44 on: December 17, 2010, 12:14:14 PM »

First: Is it possible to estimate the distribution of TD's? I know that SF will not get 15 % of the TD's, but I wonder what percentage FF will get, given their presence all over the country

One or two blogs have now taken to making seat projections based on each new poll. I'd advise taking plenty of salt with you on considering such projections, obviously, but they provide not completely unreasonable efforts at guessing the sorts of net results that might emerge.


Second: Any chance the Greens will survive. It's any of their politicians popular enougth to carry a mandate?

Yeah, there's a chance. Trevor Sargent (Dublin N) is presumably best placed to be returned, but it's an uphill battle.

Whether or not the party will survive if they don't get anyone elected? I suspect it will, in some form or other, keep going - but who knows.
Thanks / I do realise that mandates can only be an estimate because of the electoral system. I'm somewhat sure that the Greens will survive as a party - It was more the Dail, I was thinking of. It looks like they are going to have a interesting election night.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #45 on: December 17, 2010, 12:30:27 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2010, 12:34:48 PM by Governor Oakvale »

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate.
Simple - just have a debate between the two front runners only. Grin

I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if they tried to organise a simple Cowen-Kenny debate. Even if Fianna Fáil are in fourth place and Labour or Sinn Féin are still riding high.

EDIT: Incidentally, have the media come up with their "Doherty [word beginning with D]" yet to describe Sinn Féin's surge?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #46 on: December 17, 2010, 04:31:40 PM »

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate.
Simple - just have a debate between the two front runners only. Grin

I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if they tried to organise a simple Cowen-Kenny debate. Even if Fianna Fáil are in fourth place and Labour or Sinn Féin are still riding high.

IIRC, RTÉ's initial proposal earlier in the year was for 3 debates, first the leaders of FF, FG and Lab; then the leaders of Lab, SF and the Greens; finally the leaders of FF and FG. All parties criticised such formats.

Not sure if anything has developed since.


EDIT: Incidentally, have the media come up with their "Doherty [word beginning with D]" yet to describe Sinn Féin's surge?

Not that I've noticed.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #47 on: December 18, 2010, 07:57:29 PM »

New monthly RedC poll for Sunday Business Post
(with comparative numbers from the MRBI poll from last week, the RedC poll from a few weeks ago and the 2007 General)

19 Dec   16 Dec   3 Dec   2007
RedCI-MRBIRedCElection
Fine Gael34303227
Labour23252410
Fianna Fáil  17171342
Sinn Féin141516  7
Green  2  2  3  5
Ind/Other101111  9
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #48 on: January 02, 2011, 02:12:57 AM »

Bertie Ahern is to stand down at the next election. I doubt FF will win even one seat in his constituency.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #49 on: January 04, 2011, 04:23:04 AM »

Bertie Ahern is to stand down at the next election.

As expected. He's also still suggesting he's thinking about running for the Presidency (which is to be up for election in the autumn) but I doubt it'll happen.

I doubt FF will win even one seat in his constituency.

Hard to say. Dublin Central will be one of the toughest constituencies to predict.
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