Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[minionofmidas]

Does the Irish Seanad actually do anything?

[minionofmidas]

Does the Irish Seanad actually do anything?

In practice, no.

It provides a career alternative for politicians incapable, for whatever reason, of election to the Dáil.

"Career alternative"? Looks more like a "holding pen" to me.

[Јas]

Does the Irish Seanad actually do anything?

In practice, no.

It provides a career alternative for politicians incapable, for whatever reason, of election to the Dáil.

"Career alternative"? Looks more like a "holding pen" to me.

Yeah, pretty much.

[Јas]

Bookmaker Paddy Power has taken to commissioning political opinion polls lately from Red C (who normally poll for the Sunday Business Post and The Irish Sun). Usually PP's polls don’t measure party support, but today’s breaks that trend.

Results below, with the usual comparators.

	7 Jan	19 Dec	16 Dec	2007
	RedC	RedC	I-MRBI	Election
Fine Gael	35	34	30	27
Labour	21	23	25	10
Fianna Fáil	14	17	17	42
Sinn Féin	14	14	15	7
Green	4	2	2	5
Ind/Other	12	10	11	9

FG’s recent resurgence maintained. Their best result since last March (38%).

Labour’s recent decline apparently continues. Their worst result since last March (17%). Not sure what this can be attributed to.

FF’s second worst ever polling result; no sign of recovery as the election draws nearer and more incumbents declare their intent not to contest the election (we’re now at 3 cabinet ministers and 9 others).

SF tie with FF, maintaining their recent mid-teen standing riding a historic wave of support.

[minionofmidas]

lolff.

[Insula Dei]

Is it possible that Labour voters are leaving for FG in fear of a 'Guns and Roses' scenario?

[minionofmidas]

'Guns and Roses' scenario?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour’s recent decline apparently continues. Their worst result since last March (17%). Not sure what this can be attributed to.

Gravity.

[Јas]

Brian Cowen's position has come under renewed pressure in recent days, following the reporting in The Sunday Times of extracts from a new book on the downfall of Anglo-Irish Bank. It emerged that Cowen had at least two contacts with Anglo Chairman (and contender for most vilified person in Ireland since Cromwell) Sean Fitzpatrick - one a phone call from Fitzpatrick in March 2008, when Cowen was Minister for Finance; the other a round of golf they played with a third party in July 2008 when Cowen was Taoiseach, 2 months before the issuing of the Government guarantee of Irish bank debts.

The opposition parties assert that Cowen's explanation contradicts statments he made to the Dáil of how he became aware of the crisis at Anglo.

The Greens have indicated their unhappiness at the non-disclosure, but noting that nothing explicitly improper being apparant, they will not be leaving the Government imminently. They though have left the caveat that they await Cowen's statement to the Dáil tomorrow.

Given the proximity to the election, its unlikely Cowen will be removed - but the matter certainly further tarnishes his reputation and further burdens FF, now presumably around 10 weeks away from the election.

[Silent Hunter]

Is it possible that Labour voters are leaving for FG in fear of a 'Guns and Roses' scenario?

That would be an FF-Labour coalition, correct? The "Guns" being FF.

Good one Taoisigh; hopefully the media will pick that one up.

[tpfkaw]

Hmm, I would think that you'd eventually start to see FG voters tactically voting for FF in the hopes of an FG-FF coalition rather than FG-Labour.  I suppose FF is really that hated.

[Verily]

Hmm, I would think that you'd eventually start to see FG voters tactically voting for FF in the hopes of an FG-FF coalition rather than FG-Labour.  I suppose FF is really that hated.

Whatever their views on actual issues, no person who identifies with FG would be caught dead voting for FF. And, ordinarily, the reverse would also be true.

Certainly a FG-FF coalition is the least possible, politically, of all possible coalitions. Even a coalition involving Sinn Fein or one of the small socialist outfits is more likely.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is it possible that Labour voters are leaving for FG in fear of a 'Guns and Roses' scenario?

That would be an FF-Labour coalition, correct? The "Guns" being FF.

Good one Taoisigh; hopefully the media will pick that one up.

I was under the impression that he was referring to SF; I can't imagine another FF-Lab coalition.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hmm, I would think that you'd eventually start to see FG voters tactically voting for FF in the hopes of an FG-FF coalition rather than FG-Labour.  I suppose FF is really that hated.

As Verily says, FG-Lab would be far preferred by the voters to FG-FF. Fine Gael voters have always preferred Labour to Fianna Fáil, and they do so quite strongly today; in only four constituencies at the last election (Galway West, Kerry South, Louth, and Mayo) did Fine Gael votes transfer more to Fianna Fáil than Labour when both parties were available.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Why doesn't FF just change their name to Epic Fail? Since that's what they clearly are.

[Јas]

Why doesn't FF just change their name to Epic Fail? Since that's what they clearly are.

You've been beaten to that joke by many posters here over the past two years, and The Economist last week.

[minionofmidas]

Ask that question of the Social Democratic Party of Portugal first.

[Јas]

Various rumours out there this morning that a leadership challenge to Cowen could be mounted (there's a parliamentary party meeting later today) following his inability to shake off the golfgate story at Leader's Questions in the Dáil yesterday.

[Јas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- The Irish Times

[Јas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- RTÉ

[Јas]

Newstalk radio are reporting that Cowen has been asked to resign.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Јas]

FF parliamentary meeting underway.
Newstalk reports that Cowen doesn't intend to resign.

[Јas]

Cowen acknowledges that there are issues around his leadership; tells party he will meet with members individually over the next week to discuss what is in the best interest of the party.


Also today, Sinn Féin (with the support of independents Finian McGrath and Maureen O'Sullivan) has put down a motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach. Not sure when it will come up for Dáil consideration yet.

[Јas]

Cowen to sound out FF TDs today before deciding whether to resign - Irish Times

[Хahar 🤔]

Since Jas didn't include a link:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0114/1224287489575.html