Irish general election: 25 February 2011

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A number of leftist groups are coming together for the upcoming election under the United Left Alliance banner.

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They comprise, primarily, the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit Alliance (PBP), along with some leftist independents with reasonable local bases of support (Seamus Healy in Tipperary South; Declan Bree in Sligo).

They should take a handful of seats - best prospects are likely Dublin W & Dublin N for the Socialists; Dún Laoighaire and Dublin SC for PBP; and, Seamus Healy in Tipperary S. After that, who knows...

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The number of incumbents retiring has been steadily increasing recently (list of declared here) - but topping the list of surprisies is today's news that Minister for Justice, Dermot Ahern (FF-Louth) is retiring. Senior cabinet Minister, long thought to have serious notions of becoming FF leader at some point, the decision comes as a significant surprise.

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It's interesting that most of the PD counsellors survived the 2009 locals running as independents - but there is no sign of any effort at revival. Noel Grealish will presumable run again, and has a not unreasonable chance of re-election but that's about it from the ex-PD perspective.

Is Mary Harney likely to run again?  If so, is she doomed to defeat, having all of the hardships of being in an unpopulat Government without the base of a major party like Fianna Fáil?  (In that respect, she's kind of like a Green Party TD.)

It has been widely assumed that Harney would be retiring for years now. But as it happens, there's a small story in today's Irish Times (see bottom of page) indicating that that's not a certainty and that indeed there are rumours she might seek to run for FF (!).

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I figure new polling should probably go here now, so...

Traditionally the most accurate pollster, MRBI, have come up with their latest poll to be published in tomorrow's Irish Times. The poll numbers, the last RedC poll, the last comparable MRBI poll and the 2007 Election numbers are tabulated below.

	16 Dec	3 Dec	26 Sep	2007
	I-MRBI	RedC	I-MRBI	Election
Fine Gael	30	32	24	27
Labour	25	24	33	10
Fianna Fáil	17	13	24	42
Sinn Féin	15	16	8	7
Green	2	3	2	5
Ind/Other	11	11	8	9

It may be noted that on the raw numbers, 25% were undecided.

This poll sees substantial swings. It's the first time MRBI have FG back ahead of Labour since January. The poll suggests that there has been a very substantial swing against Labour in recent months.

It also returns FF to their joint lowest ever MRBI polling result - 17% (down 7 on September's poll, which itself was up 7 on June).

The poll seems to confirm the RedC indicated Sinn Féin surge. It seems to me that this represents the third significant shift away from FF in the last three years. (The first wave left for FG in 2008/09. The second left for Labour in 2009/10.)


Finally, the leaders' and government satisfaction ratings…

Satisfaction Ratings

Gilmore	44	(-5)
Adams	28	(-1)
Kenny	23	(-2)
Cowen	14	(-5)
Gormley	13	(-5)
Government	8	(-5)

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First: Is it possible to estimate the distribution of TD's? I know that SF will not get 15 % of the TD's, but I wonder what percentage FF will get, given their presence all over the country

One or two blogs have now taken to making seat projections based on each new poll. I'd advise taking plenty of salt with you on considering such projections, obviously, but they provide not completely unreasonable efforts at guessing the sorts of net results that might emerge.

Second: Any chance the Greens will survive. It's any of their politicians popular enougth to carry a mandate?

Yeah, there's a chance. Trevor Sargent (Dublin N) is presumably best placed to be returned, but it's an uphill battle.

Whether or not the party will survive if they don't get anyone elected? I suspect it will, in some form or other, keep going - but who knows.

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The Minister for Transport, Noel Dempsey (FF-Meath W) has become the second Cabinet Minister to decide not to contest the upcoming election. No particular reason stated - FF's imminant decimation is thus the reason presumptive.

High profile backbencher, Beverley Flynn (FF-Mayo), thrice expelled from the party, also announced yesterday she wouldn't be running.

Wiki seems to have an up to date list of incumbent retirement announcements.

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Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate.

Simple - just have a debate between the two front runners only.

I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if they tried to organise a simple Cowen-Kenny debate. Even if Fianna Fáil are in fourth place and Labour or Sinn Féin are still riding high.

IIRC, RTÉ's initial proposal earlier in the year was for 3 debates, first the leaders of FF, FG and Lab; then the leaders of Lab, SF and the Greens; finally the leaders of FF and FG. All parties criticised such formats.

Not sure if anything has developed since.

EDIT: Incidentally, have the media come up with their "Doherty [word beginning with D]" yet to describe Sinn Féin's surge?

Not that I've noticed.

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New monthly RedC poll for Sunday Business Post
(with comparative numbers from the MRBI poll from last week, the RedC poll from a few weeks ago and the 2007 General)

	19 Dec	16 Dec	3 Dec	2007
	RedC	I-MRBI	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	30	32	27
Labour	23	25	24	10
Fianna Fáil	17	17	13	42
Sinn Féin	14	15	16	7
Green	2	2	3	5
Ind/Other	10	11	11	9

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Bertie Ahern is to stand down at the next election.

As expected. He's also still suggesting he's thinking about running for the Presidency (which is to be up for election in the autumn) but I doubt it'll happen.

I doubt FF will win even one seat in his constituency.

Hard to say. Dublin Central will be one of the toughest constituencies to predict.

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Does the Irish Seanad actually do anything?

In practice, no.

It provides a career alternative for politicians incapable, for whatever reason, of election to the Dáil.

"Career alternative"? Looks more like a "holding pen" to me.

Yeah, pretty much.

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Bookmaker Paddy Power has taken to commissioning political opinion polls lately from Red C (who normally poll for the Sunday Business Post and The Irish Sun). Usually PP's polls don’t measure party support, but today’s breaks that trend.

Results below, with the usual comparators.

	7 Jan	19 Dec	16 Dec	2007
	RedC	RedC	I-MRBI	Election
Fine Gael	35	34	30	27
Labour	21	23	25	10
Fianna Fáil	14	17	17	42
Sinn Féin	14	14	15	7
Green	4	2	2	5
Ind/Other	12	10	11	9

FG’s recent resurgence maintained. Their best result since last March (38%).

Labour’s recent decline apparently continues. Their worst result since last March (17%). Not sure what this can be attributed to.

FF’s second worst ever polling result; no sign of recovery as the election draws nearer and more incumbents declare their intent not to contest the election (we’re now at 3 cabinet ministers and 9 others).

SF tie with FF, maintaining their recent mid-teen standing riding a historic wave of support.

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Brian Cowen's position has come under renewed pressure in recent days, following the reporting in The Sunday Times of extracts from a new book on the downfall of Anglo-Irish Bank. It emerged that Cowen had at least two contacts with Anglo Chairman (and contender for most vilified person in Ireland since Cromwell) Sean Fitzpatrick - one a phone call from Fitzpatrick in March 2008, when Cowen was Minister for Finance; the other a round of golf they played with a third party in July 2008 when Cowen was Taoiseach, 2 months before the issuing of the Government guarantee of Irish bank debts.

The opposition parties assert that Cowen's explanation contradicts statments he made to the Dáil of how he became aware of the crisis at Anglo.

The Greens have indicated their unhappiness at the non-disclosure, but noting that nothing explicitly improper being apparant, they will not be leaving the Government imminently. They though have left the caveat that they await Cowen's statement to the Dáil tomorrow.

Given the proximity to the election, its unlikely Cowen will be removed - but the matter certainly further tarnishes his reputation and further burdens FF, now presumably around 10 weeks away from the election.

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Why doesn't FF just change their name to Epic Fail? Since that's what they clearly are.

You've been beaten to that joke by many posters here over the past two years, and The Economist last week.

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Various rumours out there this morning that a leadership challenge to Cowen could be mounted (there's a parliamentary party meeting later today) following his inability to shake off the golfgate story at Leader's Questions in the Dáil yesterday.

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- The Irish Times

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- RTÉ

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Newstalk radio are reporting that Cowen has been asked to resign.

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FF parliamentary meeting underway.
Newstalk reports that Cowen doesn't intend to resign.

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Cowen acknowledges that there are issues around his leadership; tells party he will meet with members individually over the next week to discuss what is in the best interest of the party.


Also today, Sinn Féin (with the support of independents Finian McGrath and Maureen O'Sullivan) has put down a motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach. Not sure when it will come up for Dáil consideration yet.

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Cowen to sound out FF TDs today before deciding whether to resign - Irish Times

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oops

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Labour have now also decided to put down a motion of no confidence in the Government.

Due to the workings and technicalities of the Dáil calendar, it will come up before the SF motion put down yesterday.

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The Irish Times counts 37 publicly declared supporters of Cowen for tonight's vote - only 13 declared against. (36 votes required to win.) It's possible of course that in a secret ballot things may not go as publicly declared (not that I'm for a moment suggesting that FF TDs might say one thing and do another, perish the thought!).

Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheál Martin is the only cabinet minister to declare he will be voting against. (Minister for the Arts, Mary Hanafin is the only remained cabinet minister yet to declare.) Both are likely leadership contenders post-Cowen.

Minister for Finance (and possible leadership contender), Brian Lenihan today declared his backing for Cowen - contrary to what everyone believes his natural inclination is, including two backbenchers who have said this afternoon that Lenihan has encouraged such dissent. It's likely Lenihan's position is at least in part determined by the wish to isolate Martin.

Presuming Cowen wins this evening, it remains to be seen whether he will then accept Martin's ministerial resignation.

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And the result...


Can't say for sure what the exact figures were, these weren't (and won't be) announced and are apparantly only known to the two (Cowen supporters) who counted the ballots, but it's understood to have been a fairly sizable (20-25 vote) win for Cowen.

Martin has resigned as Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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Minister for the Arts, Mary Hanafin has clarified that she voted against Cowen in last night's confidence vote - but has neither offered, nor been asked, to resign.

Also: the Taoiseach has decided to take over the Foreign Affairs portfolio, at least for the time being.