Irish general election: 25 February 2011

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Hmm, I would think that you'd eventually start to see FG voters tactically voting for FF in the hopes of an FG-FF coalition rather than FG-Labour.  I suppose FF is really that hated.

Whatever their views on actual issues, no person who identifies with FG would be caught dead voting for FF. And, ordinarily, the reverse would also be true.

Certainly a FG-FF coalition is the least possible, politically, of all possible coalitions. Even a coalition involving Sinn Fein or one of the small socialist outfits is more likely.

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LOL. Odds on the first poll to show Fianna Fail behind the Greens?

/I kid. Sort of.

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Any thoughts on whether FF's polling position will improve as a result? Will they at least scrape second place with Martin at the helm, or is Ireland not ready to give them a second chance?

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Well, I don't know, this sort of thing has saved other parties that looked in danger of utter collapse elsewhere. Often it doesn't help much in the long-term (see: Japan's LDP, Canada's PCs), but it does usually cause a short-term boost. Considering the election is only a month or so away, that short-term boost could be all Fianna Fail needs to survive (because I doubt the party itself could survive a third or fourth place finish).

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Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Suggests that the Greens are in position to hold on to seats in Dublin even with 1% of the vote, however, as they are at at least 11% there.

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Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Suggests that the Greens are in position to hold on to seats in Dublin even with 1% of the vote, however, as they are at at least 11% there.

You fail mathematics forever.

Why? The poll says that FF is at 11% in Dublin and in 5th place. Unless there's some party other than the Greens who might be ahead of FF in Dublin...

Quote from the article:

"Fianna Fail's dramatic loss of support has halted but the party is still in fifth place in the capital, with just 11pc support."

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Kildare South seems to have the opposite problem. Both Labour and FG are running only one candidate, which means they're effectively ceding a seat to FF. Seems like a very odd thing to do; it would be at least possible to see a 2 FG-1 Lab (or maybe even the reverse) result there. (Other candidates include a Shinner and two independents.)

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Galway W is massive in terms of area and that's the main reason for the number of candidates - so parties tend to run more rather than less anyway just to increase the chances of getting face-to-face contact between the candidates and as many constituents as possible. (Note FF are running 3 here - even though they're only defending 2.) Most likely result here is probably a single FG gain from FF. Though I expect independents Catherine Connolly and Tom Welby to do better than last time. My inkling is that Connolly is in with a shout.

What about Grealish? Any chance he holds his seat, or is he finished?

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The trouble with STV is that it's a good electoral system for electing witless morons who parade around (often less than honestly) as 'local champions' and get rewarded for it. Of course that happens under fptp as well.

Not always. In Scotland with the move away from FPTP council elections towards larger STV wards many of the 'witless morons' found that their base had been consumed within a much bigger area, they commanded less support and promptly got booted out.

This just means you get witless morons with slightly broader appeal.

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I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

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I see the exit poll is being announced at 8am. Is there a particular reason why Ireland doesn't make people stay up into the wee hours to learn who's going to govern the country? I know NI used to do it.

Counting transfers in an STV system takes too long. If they did it overnight, they wouldn't have any results until 4 am or so anyway.

So there is no point in watching television coverage of election night?

I think last time they announced the first count and then went to bed (might be remembering that wrong), but I think all counting is happening the next morning this time.

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Yeah, the Lib Dem comparisons really aren't accurate. Which isn't to say that this approach doesn't carry risks for Labour, but people didn't vote for them to be in opposition...

As expected, it's being framed as a "national government", which is interesting and probably a good tactic.

EDIT: Or a "Government for National Recovery", as it says in the joint programme.

Look at how much good that did for the SPD.