Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Suffice to say this will like no other election in the history of the Republic. Not even 1932. Regardless of what happens between now and election day.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

One thing has always puzzled me about Irish politics. I'm told that FF and FG are essentially identical ideologically in that they both have no real ideology - though I'm told that FG tends to be a more socially liberal on issues like divorce and gay rights while FF tends to be "catholic" and socially conservative - but I'm told even that is open to debate.

All that being said - why is it that the Labour Party (which does have an ideology is definitely left of centre social democratic) ALWAYS allies itself with Fine Gael and they are considered almost permanent coalition partners - while Labour and FF never seem to be able to work together and I believe that the one time they tried - it quickly fell apart.

Can someone Irish explain why it is that if FF and FG are ideologically identical - the Labour Party will only work with FG and never with FF?  In fact FF has recently preferred to form alliances with the very rightwing Progressive Democrats.

The PDs were never as right-wing as commonly stated (it was due to them that the minimum wage was introduced after all). Which isn´t to say there weren´t a right-wing party...

Listen to thing to understand about Irish politics is this, the two civil war parties are really just vast patronage and influence machines to the supporters and the families of their supporters. That´s why they exist and why in part Ireland´s political system is so dysfunctional. As FG needed power to fulfill its patronage role to its fullest it has relied on Labour (somewhat ironic as FG were originally the most conservative of the two parties and even had a brief flirtation with quasi-fascism in the 30s). Labour realized therefore that their influence is much higher in FG led government. Furthermore there has always been a voting consistency in Ireland which is non-party but anti-FF. Betraying this vote was a major reason why Labour collapsed so badly in 1997.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Let fail fest 2011 begin!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There's apparently a poll out tomorrow showing FF at 8%, which was great until I realised it's apparently a Sunday Independent poll, and those are lousy.

That would still be at least 9% too high. But yeah, Quantum makes ARG look like the epitome of professional polling.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

As the folks on the other board said, the farce has just got farcier.

As for the FF leadership, I hope Hannafin wins it (though I´ll be surprised now if Martin doesn´t) only on the grounds that we could then see the leader of FF lose her seat at the election. I don´t think Lenihan is that interested and the other two are, alas, very safe even if FF go down to single digits seats.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yeah, but Labour's organisational weakness in certain parts of the country could easily mean that...

If it´s compensation if FF do get 16% of the vote then they will reduced to practically nothing in Dublin and their local organization in the capital has essentially collapsed over the last twenty years (see: the last local elections for evidence).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Electorate is very votatile this time around so I don´t really that much stock in the current polls. Also, it is obvious that independents will play a big role this year, perhaps more so than in 2002.

Or perhaps I´m saying this because I still can´t comprehend the notion of Enda Kenny being taoiseach.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Or perhaps I´m saying this because I still can´t comprehend the notion of Enda Kenny being taoiseach.

Which would be entirely understandable as it's not a nice thought.

Perhaps it´s a bit of urban snobbery on my part... because I can´t understand the appeal of that man with that voice. He never ceases to come across like a dithering slightly lazy small town lawyer preparing for his first big traffic violation case in the big smoke of Dublin and therefore preparing himself for his new role as the big star in an episode of Law and Order: Ballydehob edition.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why has Labour been sliding in the polls?

They haven´t been. Their earlier position was inflated due in large part to Labour becoming "Generic Opposition Party" for a time last year. A role which has been somewhat eaten into by Sinn Fein and the growing realization of many voters than they in fact have to vote for someone and not just against the government.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The last two elections saw major undetected shifts in the last two weeks of the campaign (the return to the PDs in 2002 probably due to the "no single party government" campaign and the move away from the Greens and SFs towards Fianna Fail and the squeezing of the non-big two parties in 2007). I suspect we could see such an event occuring again perhaps a move towards independents and away from Labour and SF is what I´ll go with. Perhaps FG too especially if the campaign doesn´t go well for them.

Must do a consituency prediction before the 25th.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Predict the election: http://fullhouse.whitebox.ie/.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Election day 2016?

I'll awake next Friday to spend the night wandering the streets drinking rum and shouting at things.

If I weren´t living in Madrid, I´ll join you. Hell, I´ll join you in spirit.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There is always (at least) one independent or small party candidate who will get elected who no-one, repeat no-one, believed who had any chance seconds before the boxes open and is completely outside of whatever ballygovillage he (nearly always he) hails from.

Would say more but I have been busy as of late, will post much more tomorrow when the scale of the apoclaypse becomes clear.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hey guys, How is emigrant or absentee voting handled? I can't find much information on it- are you allowed to vote at embassies etc.?

AFAIK expatriates aren't allowed to vote.

I´m not.