Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[minionofmidas]

It's strange. Fianna Fáil have no ideology

...

Fine Gael have traditionally not been all that different

Yeah, that's what I was gathering.

I'll always find it funny to read about a party which includes my name in its own name.

Fail? Yeah, that's awesome.

His surname is almost "Hermione", so I suppose he meant "fine".

[minionofmidas]

Quite, quite.

[minionofmidas]

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate.

Simple - just have a debate between the two front runners only.

[minionofmidas]

Does the Irish Seanad actually do anything?

[minionofmidas]

Does the Irish Seanad actually do anything?

In practice, no.

It provides a career alternative for politicians incapable, for whatever reason, of election to the Dáil.

"Career alternative"? Looks more like a "holding pen" to me.

[minionofmidas]

lolff.

[minionofmidas]

'Guns and Roses' scenario?

[minionofmidas]

Ask that question of the Social Democratic Party of Portugal first.

[minionofmidas]

Can't say for sure what the exact figures were, these weren't (and won't be) announced and are apparantly only known to the two (Cowen supporters) who counted the ballots, but it's understood to have been a fairly sizable (20-25 vote) win for Cowen.

...or so they claim...

[minionofmidas]

Breaking News: The Irish Green party withdraw from coaltion

The only part of this thread to have made it into the pages of the Trierischer Volksfreund.

[minionofmidas]

Watching that and then this, I can't help but feel that the bloke in the second video is speaking Irish with an Irish accent.

[minionofmidas]

Second place? That would be quite the dramatic turnaround.

[minionofmidas]

Ugh. Looks like FF might actually manage a second place finish in either votes or seats (and getting one, or even just barely missing out on one, is presumably enough to remain viable and credible.)

I hear we'll probably get an official dissolution tuesday?

[minionofmidas]

I suppose that more reflects Brian "Useless Gobshite" Cowen's personal approval than anything else.

[minionofmidas]

Well not many of the incumbent TDs are running for reelection.

Is the gobsh!te?

[minionofmidas]

The 30th Dáil has been dissolved and a General Election will be held on Friday, 25 February.

Well well well. Colour me surprised. That was certainly unexpected.

[minionofmidas]

Labour appear to have at least arrested their decline, while SF may have peaked. (Gerry Adams has already been, and will continue to be, questioned in an almost mocking fashion about economic questions in the Republic. Quite a few journalists have caught him out already.)

Don't you think this strategy could backfire though? A lot of working class people don't have the greatest respect for economic experts these days.

True. But it's not that Adams's ideology is viewed as bananas that's the issue, it's that he clearly doesn't seem to actually understand the economic situation as is, and doesn't actually understand some of the simpler matters either (child benefit, VAT, etc.).

The media narrative has taken hold, and I don't see it shifting - every journalist Adams deals with between now and election day will try to further expose his weakness in this area - and more than a few will succeed. He can't be looking forward to debates either - the biggest story to emerge from the debates in 2007 was Adams's economic ignorance and how the others made fun of him.

That said, you're quite right in that I'm not sure how much many people care for this sort of thing - but I do think it will inhibit the potential reach of the Sinn Féin campaign and that Adams may come to be viewed as more of an electoral liability than an asset even if, as it seems, they're on course for their best result in modern times.

Thanks for the reply. While I think a hostile media and opposing parties have successfully been able to paint/prove Adams as economically weak, I just don't think it has much effect beyond making like minded people smirk. I don't think people getting their benefits cut appreciate people like Leo Varadkar  scoffing at someone's economic heft.  And FF is really in a weak position to argue about their economic expertise.

I do agree that that the current leadership does inhibit the parties' growth potential and for some time I would have liked to see leadership changes. SF finally has a chance to make itself a serious all Ireland party again and I don't think the Troubles leadership can make this happen.

SF relies on the Troubles mystique, and on being a party unlike any other. While they will have to transition out of that eventually (for pure demographic reasons) it needs to happen very gradually. Certainly Adams and McGuinness can't just disappear from the limelight at the same time.

[minionofmidas]

Fianna Fail's dramatic loss of support has halted but the party is still in fifth place in the capital, with just 11pc support.

Wait... who else polls 12%? ULA? You'd think 12% in Dublin would translate to more than 1% nationally, so it can't be the Greens.

[minionofmidas]

Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Suggests that the Greens are in position to hold on to seats in Dublin even with 1% of the vote, however, as they are at at least 11% there.

You fail mathematics forever.

[minionofmidas]

Odd that it suggests FG are leading in Dublin, rather than Labour.
Anyway, rumours of anohter poll out this evening or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Suggests that the Greens are in position to hold on to seats in Dublin even with 1% of the vote, however, as they are at at least 11% there.

You fail mathematics forever.

Why? The poll says that FF is at 11% in Dublin and in 5th place. Unless there's some party other than the Greens who might be ahead of FF in Dublin...

Quote from the article:

"Fianna Fail's dramatic loss of support has halted but the party is still in fifth place in the capital, with just 11pc support."

Because it is, of course, entirely impossible to be at 11% in Dublin while being at 1% nationally. Unless their support outside of Dublin is in net negative territory.
As to what it really means... discussed just two posts above your OP.

[minionofmidas]

The concern is with some voters' proven reluctance to list the full party ticket at the top of their pref.s. And with incumbents' reluctance to be thrown out by the voters in favor of their running mates.

[minionofmidas]

I'm getting an Irish election ad on our googlead bar!

"Vote No. 1 for Sean Kyne. Sean Kyne is running for Fine Gael in Galway West. Find out more" and then his website.

[minionofmidas]

Or just to cancel the debates full stop.

[minionofmidas]

I actually quite like Fianna Fáil's proposal there. *feels unclean*

Your country has the best electoral system anywhere, so, yeah, you should.

Or rather, would have if constituencies were larger.

[minionofmidas]

When you call a female politician "cute", Patrick, it is customary to include a picture.



What would be a standard anglicized spelling of Ó Caoláin? I understand that, spelling aside, he shares a first name with kevinstat.