Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Хahar 🤔]

An election now is certain to happen: the only question is when. The government has lost its majority, and it may have lost supply as well, in which case it will be unable to go out on its own terms.

[Хahar 🤔]

Enlighten the ignorant on this issue (and this might be a really stupid question with an obvious answer but I'll ask it anyway): is Fianna Fáil expected to take a real pounding?

The worst pounding it's ever taken.

[Хahar 🤔]

Fun fact: The last time Fianna Fáil did not form government after an election was November 1982.

[Хahar 🤔]

So Fianna Fail's ideology (or lack of one) could be considered similar to that of the GOP c. 1920-1980?

Irish politics is fairly similar to American politics in the century following the Civil War, in that both parties are pretty much the same and the one you vote for depends on which side your ancestors were on in the Civil War.

[Хahar 🤔]

There will almost certainly be a coalition between Labour and Fine Gael after the election, no matter who comes out on top. Labour has been a part of every Fine Gael government.

[Хahar 🤔]

For a long time Fianna Fáil didn't form coalitions at all. Fine Gael, on the other hand, has always been the second-largest party in the Dáil, and as a result has always had to form coalitions to take power. Given that Labour has always been clearly the third-largest party in Ireland, they are Fine Gael's traditional coalition partners. Moreover, the Progressive Democrats were originally Fianna Fáil dissidents.

[Хahar 🤔]

http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/the-first-leaflet-from-the-united-left-alliance-ula/

Presumably Higgins will win. I'd expect Barrett to get a seat, except that Dún Laoghaire is losing a seat, which will make it considerably more difficult. It'll be interesting to see how well the ULA does.

[Хahar 🤔]

Bertie Ahern is to stand down at the next election. I doubt FF will win even one seat in his constituency.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is it possible that Labour voters are leaving for FG in fear of a 'Guns and Roses' scenario?

That would be an FF-Labour coalition, correct? The "Guns" being FF.

Good one Taoisigh; hopefully the media will pick that one up.

I was under the impression that he was referring to SF; I can't imagine another FF-Lab coalition.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hmm, I would think that you'd eventually start to see FG voters tactically voting for FF in the hopes of an FG-FF coalition rather than FG-Labour.  I suppose FF is really that hated.

As Verily says, FG-Lab would be far preferred by the voters to FG-FF. Fine Gael voters have always preferred Labour to Fianna Fáil, and they do so quite strongly today; in only four constituencies at the last election (Galway West, Kerry South, Louth, and Mayo) did Fine Gael votes transfer more to Fianna Fáil than Labour when both parties were available.

[Хahar 🤔]

Since Jas didn't include a link:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0114/1224287489575.html

[Хahar 🤔]

Martin withdraws support as Cowen calls vote of confidence - Irish Times

[Хahar 🤔]

This means that Noel Grealish will be the only ex-PD standing.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hanafin got an additional portfolio? I can't imagine why.

[Хahar 🤔]

Incredible stuff. I haven't seen anything this interesting in years.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Ministerial portfolios have been reassigned, but it's clear that the Greens have refused to allow the Taoiseach to appoint new people to the posts (presumably threatening otherwise to leave Government immediately).

What's the rationale for the Greens (or the public, which may be why they took that position) opposing new ministers being appointed who were only going to serve for a month or two?  Does it have to do with salaries, pensions or both?  Or (also) something else?  Like expense accounts.

Do ministers get paid (covering all forms of pay here, present and future) per profile, whichever individual profile's compensation is greatest (they may all be the same), or something in between (meaning you get more if you take on additional responsibilities but not as much more as what someone who hadn't held that level of position before, or may have before but otherwise wouldn't have that level of position now... not as much more as what that person would get in payment that he/she wouldn't otherwise get)?  The answer may be different for the different types of pay.  Some of these questions you probably won't be able to answer, but I'm sure you can tell me if my hunch of "What's the bid deal with a few TDs having a prestigeous-sounding gig for a month or two?" is correct.

I believe that former ministers get better pensions.

[Хahar 🤔]

Wouldn't it be fascinating if this happened?

[Хahar 🤔]

Wouldn't it be fascinating if this happened?

So... Cowen would become leader again, by default?

One would assume so, yes.

[Хahar 🤔]

So, if I understand correctly, Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens all want the finance bill passed by Friday, to be followed by dissolution of the Dáil, but Lenihan doesn't think it can be done. Sinn Féin wants an immediate dissolution, with the finance bill put on hold until after the election. Fine Gael has a motion of no confidence on Tuesday, Labour on Wednesday, and Sinn Féin at some other time. Is there any chance that any of those motions pass?

BTW, in your figures at the bottom, you have the Greens listed on both sides. I'm not sure whether that's intentional or not.

[Хahar 🤔]

There's as much English in that as there is in my Bengali. I'm disappointed.

[Хahar 🤔]

By Kevin's link, Fine Gael is running a full slate in Cork North West (3), Cork South West (3), Galway East (4), Limerick (3), and Meath West (3); no other party is running a full slate anywhere. The choice of constituencies seems rather random.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's a good thing that FF won't be forming the next government. From their manifesto:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What a terrible idea.

[Хahar 🤔]

I actually quite like Fianna Fáil's proposal there. *feels unclean*

Your country has the best electoral system anywhere, so, yeah, you should.

[Хahar 🤔]

I actually quite like Fianna Fáil's proposal there. *feels unclean*

Your country has the best electoral system anywhere, so, yeah, you should.

Or rather, would have if constituencies were larger.

Even though it was indubitably better in the '20s and '30s, even now it's still superior to every other country.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why do you say that, Xahar?  (I'm honestly curious; I used to be more into election systems than I am now, so I'm mostly just uninformed.)

It's more or less proportional (especially with larger constituencies). However, unlike other systems of proportional representation, it allows those who vote for losing candidates to also have a say by considering lower preferences. It provides a link between elected officials and the electorate through its use of constituencies, so that legislators aren't completely faceless automata.